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Racing Chat - Saturday 15th August

richard-westwood
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  • BillyHills changed the title to Racing Chat - Saturday 15th August
Darran

Darran

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Posted

It won't be long before we get the first Group 1 action of the spring in Australia and the horses looking to aim themselves at the big prizes are starting to return to action on Saturday. This weekend we are at Caulfield and Randwick.

Caulfield R1 (3.10am)

A small field in the opener in Melbourne and I think it can go to the favourite Sovereign Award. Damian Oliver has a strong book of rides and I expect him to make all on this horse who is on a hat-trick after wins at Sale and Moonee Valley. This race doesn't look any harder than last time and she should be able to dictate matters at the head of the pack. He goes up another 100m in trip, but 3rd up that should be ideal and she looks a progressive horse.

Sovereign Award  @ 21/20 with Bet365

Caulfield R4 (5am)

Going with another Oliver ridden favourite here in Plein Ciel. He loves it here at Caulfield having won 4 times in 6 starts and 2 of those have come in 3 starts over this trip. He was 4th in the Winter Championship last time and it was a solid enough run in a competitive race. He runs well with his races spread out and he looks to have a solid chance. Exasperate could be the main danger as he is 3/4 at Caulfield with all the wins coming over this trip. The concern for him though is he has never won 1st up in 5 attempts.

Plein Ciel @ 5/4 with everyone

Caulfield R7 (7am)

A Listed sprint here and I think Viridine can add to his Bletchingly Stakes win last time out. He's got a nice draw in 2 and I imagine he will sit just off the pace before pouncing in the straight. A few of the dangers are 1st up here as well as ones who are going to need further the further they go into their prep so he has the fitness edge.

Viridine @ 7/4 with Betfred

Caulfield R8 (7.35am)

A good race for this G2 contest and I am going to split my stakes and back the mares Mystic Journey and Arcadia Queen. The former won this contest last season and then had a bit of a frustrating prep after that although she still ran with great credit having been 5th in the Cox Plate. She was only able to have one start in the Autumn when she was 5th in the William Reid which was a cracking run over too short a trip. I think she has a great chance. I also like Arcadia Queen who is 2/2 1st up and has won 6 of her 9 stars. 2 of those defeats came in the Everest and the Golden Eagle. She is coming back from injury which is a slight query, but she is a class horse horse. Kings Will Dream has a solid place chance and Regal Power and Streets Of Avalon also can go well.

Mystic Journey @ 100/30 with Betfair and William Hill

Arcadia Queen @ 4/1 with everyone

Caulfield R9 (8.10am)

The West Australian Showmanship is the warm favourite here and he could be too good for these, but he has been going off Winx odds of late and so he hasn't been beating much although he has been doing it very easily. I'm happy to let him win at the odds and instead will have a little e/w on O'Tauto at a double figure price. His 1st p form is very impressive as he has won once and then finished 2nd to two good horses the other two times. Maybe he will have to settle for 2nd again behind a good one, but he gets in off bottom weight and Oliver is on top so he has a few things in his favour.

O'Tauto @ 10/1 e/w with Betfred and William Hill

Randwick R1 (2.55am)

All Saints' Eve could be hard to beat, but I am going to take her on with Vitesse. All Saints' Eve is resuming and has never run on heavy ground in a race although she is bred to handle it, but Vitesse has been in good form this prep and maps to get an easy lead which is crucial for me in the conditions. She didn't quite have the speed down in trip last time and she has only ever won over 1400m so going back to that trip is ideal for her.

Vitesse @ 4/1 with Betfred

Randwick R7 (6.40am)

North Pacific made his debut in the G2 Silver Slipper and ran well to finish 3rd. He then had a break and returned a month ago and boy was he impressive when bolting up at Rosehill. He looks a really promising horse and the clock backed the visuals up as he clocked up the fastest last 200m of the whole meeting. The main danger will be Smart Image who was the horse Hugh Bowman caused the huge interference on when he won last time.

North Pacific @ 5/4 with Bet365

Randwick R8 (7.20am)

A fascinating race this with a few returning like Shared Ambition who will have bigger targets over further later on in the prep against horses who are fit from racing during the winter. Man Of Peace has won his last twice by making all and has done it very easily both times, but this is a much bigger field and he might mot be able to dictate in quite the same way. Instead I am going to take a chance e/w on Aliferous at a double figure price. She hasn't won for a while, but she is hugely consistent and has been placed in 11 of her 16 runs. She was very good 1st up last time and having trialled well in blinkers she also has them on in this. She is likely to have too much speed for a lot of these returning stayers and it could be a case of if she can run down Man Of Peace.

Aliferous e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

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2.05 Newmarket - 2pts win Indigo Lake @ 11/2 Bet365

Boss Power has to take a step up in class in his stride today so I'll take him on at the price and I quite like Indigo Lake in here. Looks a better horse this year after some promising runs in novices last campaign (including very closely matched form with Night Bear), seeing off the progressive Favourite Moon at Doncaster on first start before being narrowly denied next time out. Found 1m6f too far last time so drops back to the ideal trip of 1m4f today. Another thing about this horse is he can hit a flat spot in races - not ideal around the likes of Lingfield or Haydock where he's run already John and a more galloping track today will certainly suit his style (much like Doncaster did). His full brother is a group one horse so room for improvement with this one yet and has the blinkers applied today to keep his mind on the job throughout - if not resenting them, should go well.

2.15 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Diamond And Gold @ 9/1 Bet365

Typical Sir Michael Stoute type who is sure to come on plenty on her debut effort, not knocked about but staying on from last into midfield at Newmarket in a race I consider to be a strong one relative to this one. There's a couple of rivals who finished closer than this one on their debuts but were probably better primed for their first run and I do think the Newmarket race will work out better than those they competed in. This filly is a half sister to numerous winners, will enjoy the galloping nature of the track and should know more and strip fitter so represents good each-way value to me here. 

2.25 Newbury - 1pt win Jahbath @ 7/1 Bet365

Shaped promisingly back from a 16 month absence last time out at Haydock, staying on from the rear on soft ground but this one is a Mukhadram gelding so would expect the slightly better ground today will help him too. Naturally should improve for the run and looks fairly handicapped on his seriously impressive runs last year - comfortably beat a 100 rated horse at Kempton so don't think a mark of 99 is beyond him at all and his only flop came on dirt in Meydan when last seen before his reappearance. Best form has come when tracking the pace so being hampered at the start and racing in the rear wasn't ideal either at Haydock and all things considered should find today more suitable.

2.40 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Recall The Show @ 10/1 Bet365

I think there's a lot to like about Mick Quinn's runner here on a lot of his form where he's been unlucky to bump into nice horses throughout. Ran many good races in novices in Ireland with his mark of 80 looking very fair on his narrow defeat to an Aidan O'Brien horse now rated in the 90s and the form of the race in which he was a closing 4th over 6f with all of those ahead of him going on to be rated well into the 80s and 90s. When he did get a go in handicaps, he was 3rd in a race at Dundalk that worked out extremely well - the winner now rated significantly higher and the 2nd going on to be placed in group races over in the USA and then on his first run over here found himself 2nd to a horse now rated almost 20lbs higher in the handicap, so he's been unfortunate throughout his career not to land a race. Hopefully there won't be anything quite so progressive lurking here and the extra furlong can help too today.

3.35 Newbury - 2pts win Threat @ 11/2 Bet365

The favourite has an obvious chance but has looked vulnerable late on over 7f in good company previously so will take him on with Threat, who was a good horse last year and shaped very well indeed on seasonal reappearance in the St James' Palace stakes, travelling ominously well before failing to get home over a mile. Clearly that form is good with it being a group one and although he ran flat in the July Cup last time, it's possible it came too soon and now gets a return to slightly easier company and 7f which looks his ideal trip. 

4.00 Doncaster - 3pts win Ghalyoon @ 11/4 Bet365

A shortish price compared to my more typical selections but despite a lengthy absence, looks chucked in here on handicap debut off 87. The last twice he's been six lengths clear of third having finished 1 1/2l behind Nazeef (now rated 116) and having beaten Posted (now rated 101). Lightly raced so more to come and his run behind Nazeef came after a similarly long absence so all in all, looks extremely well placed to score today. 

4.25 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Wolflet @ 13/2 Bet365

John Gosden's runner has shown significant promise in three starts to date and I think there should be more to come. Her dam was a very good horse rated in the 100s when retiring having raced over middle distances and I think this filly will enjoy the galloping track here from the front. Should find it easier to hold off rivals here than at Haydock last time and has better ground today too. The form of her novice runs suggest there's scope off this mark, having finished second to First Kingdom at Kempton two starts back with the third horse also showing progressive form since to be rated higher than what Wolflet goes off today. Conditions ought to suit, should take another step forward today and should run well.

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Trotter

Trotter

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Posted

Frankie has decided to give up his York rides to go to Deauville this weekend 

He rides Prix de Jockey Club winner Mishriff in the 1.35 today which looks a terrific contest taking on the first and second from the 'Poulains'

Tomorrow he rides the St James Place Stakes winner Palace Pier in the 'Marois' up against several other group one winners

Both his rides are favourites 

Dettori said on Friday: "I spoke to John [Gosden] at great length this morning. With no Enable or Stradivarius, my York rides were looking a little bit light. Lord North is still a big ride to miss and he was the one that was tempting me to stay.

“But both Mishriff and Palace Pier are exciting Group 1 winners too and the prize-money for the races at Deauville is unbelievable."

He added in his Sporting Index blog: "Two weeks of staying at home afterwards isn’t ideal, but we’re racing for an incredible amount of money at Deauville and I thought it was worth taking the chance.

"It’s going to be very tough staying at home and watching the Ebor Festival, but after that the fixture list is quite quiet and on the balance of things I think going to France is a good choice.”

 

Looks like he's following the dosh !

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

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Posted (edited)

One Trixie today for £1.50 = £6 v Poss return of £75.02

1.50 Nb Dhababi 7/4
3.50 Nm Ventura Diamond 7/4
5.00 Nm Expressionism 9/4 (a bit short but Kevin Stott rides so couldn't resist it)

Other bets:

1.50 Nb Saint Lawrence 50p ew at 7/1

2.25 Nb Afaak £1 win at 7/2
2.25 Nb Orbaan 50p ew at 6/1

3.00 Nb Alignak £1 win at 10/3

3.35 Nb Dream Of Dreams £1 win at 9/4 (a bit skinny odds)

4.00 Don Beanski £1 ew at 13/2 (be very surprised if it doesn't make a bold bid to win this race again)

4.35 Don North Wind 50p ew at 11/2
4.35 Don Orvar 50p ew at 15/2

Mutiples = £6.00

Singles = £9.00

Total stakes = £15.00 today

==================================================================================

I sometimes wonder why I go to the trouble of seeking out class action.  One class 1 race and two class 2 races; I may as well have had cart horses for my selections.  Really strange how sometimes all seems to click and then at other times I see performances (or lack of them like today)  The Trixie was a complete loss so £6 down the swannee.  The balance C/fwd is £684.43 (Bank £800)

I had two singles winners and one placed.  This produced a return of £9.66.  the outlay was £9 so a whopping profit of 66p  the balance C/Fwd is now £301.16 (£400 Bank)

NB I am now seeing the same commentries and selections on the Sporting Life Website as those produced by the Timeform racecard selections and comments on the ATR website.  Soon there will be only one mass produced commentary from the Press Association!!

Some class action at Newbury, Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen tomorrow.  It can't be worse than today's racing can it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

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Posted
On 8/15/2020 at 10:28 AM, Trotter said:

Frankie has decided to give up his York rides to go to Deauville this weekend 

He rides Prix de Jockey Club winner Mishriff in the 1.35 today which looks a terrific contest taking on the first and second from the 'Poulains'

Tomorrow he rides the St James Place Stakes winner Palace Pier in the 'Marois' up against several other group one winners

Both his rides are favourites 

Dettori said on Friday: "I spoke to John [Gosden] at great length this morning. With no Enable or Stradivarius, my York rides were looking a little bit light. Lord North is still a big ride to miss and he was the one that was tempting me to stay.

“But both Mishriff and Palace Pier are exciting Group 1 winners too and the prize-money for the races at Deauville is unbelievable."

He added in his Sporting Index blog: "Two weeks of staying at home afterwards isn’t ideal, but we’re racing for an incredible amount of money at Deauville and I thought it was worth taking the chance.

"It’s going to be very tough staying at home and watching the Ebor Festival, but after that the fixture list is quite quiet and on the balance of things I think going to France is a good choice.”

 

Looks like he's following the dosh !

Well done with pointing PL punters to both Frankie's two winners; hope you don't have to self isolate now ? 

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