Racing Chat - Saturday July 18th

[BillyHills]

Big Saturday Handicap 

230 York : John Smiths Cup
 

Ratings

 

Last 10 Years

Trends

7/10 Drawn higher double figures
We lose 2,3,4,12,13,19,20,21,22
9/10 Aged 5 or less
We lose 1,9,14
Last 6 winners carried over 9st
We lose 15,16,17,18
16/24 Placed first 4 last time
We lose 7,
21/24 Ran within 60 days
All left qualify
14/24 Won over 1m2f+
All left qualify

Runners left on shortlist
5 6 8 10 11

10 previous winners had ran over a longer trip so that eliminates 8,10 & 11

Selections
1pt EW Fifth Position 11/1 Ladbrokes
1pt EW Sky Defender 25/1 Corals

 

 

 

[Darran]

We have some good jumping action on Sunday at Pakenham so I will be looking at that tomorrow, but Saturday sees racing at Flemington in Melbourne and they are racing on the Kensington track at Randwick up in Sydney. I have bets in 9 races this week.

Flemington R2 (3.30am)

Proper Rogue is the one for me here. In 5 career starts he was won 2 and finished 2nd the other 3 times including his first run of the prep at Caulfield last month when he should really have won. He didn't see daylight until about 150m out and the winner had already flown, but he finished well for 2nd. The winner, Lucifier's Reward, is in this race as well, but I think the form can be reversed. He's already won down the straight here and there shouldn't be any excuses this time around.

Proper Rogue @ 9/4 with William Hill

Flemington R5 (5.20am)

2 against the field in a race which is being run for just the 2nd time having first been run in 1849! Sweet Thomas was a really impressive winner of the Stayers Cup at Rosehill last month and back in April he finished 4th in the Sydney Cup. He's a strong stayer and although the ground wont be as testing as last time he's won on better ground and he should go close. The other one I like is South Pacific who won at Royal Ascot last year. He only beat two home at Caulfield on his Aussie debut, but it was over 2000m and he was held up which was against the track bias that day. He wasn't knocked about and stepping up to 2800m 2nd up should see a much better performance. For me on his form in the UK and Ireland he has the beating of these.

Sweet Thomas @ 7/2 with Betfair

South Pacific @ 14/5 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (6.00am)

I was going to tip up Right You Are last week but he was scratched because he was drawn badly and connections took him out (yes you are allowed to do that in Australia) and waited for this race instead. He is drawn in 4 here and he looks a really progressive horse. He has won half of his 6 starts and finished 2nd over 2000m last time and the winner has won again since so the form looks really solid. he won over 1600m the time before so the drop down in trip shouldn't be a bother.

Right You Are @ 3/1 with William Hill

Flemington R7 (6.40am)

Orderofthegarter is another ex O'Brian horse on the card and he has to be chanced in this. He finished 2nd in the 2017 Hampton Court to Benbatl which is obviously top form. His only start in Australia was here in September 2018 and he ran really well to finish 2nd. If he's fit he wins this for me and clearly connections think he has plenty of ability left in the tank for them to have carried on with him. I am happy to take the chance with his fitness. I will have a saver on Danon Roman in case he isn't fit. I liked his performance when winning here a month ago and I think the form is strong as mentioned again below.

Orderofthegarter @ 9/2 with Bet365

Danon Roman @ 3/1 with everyone

Kensington R4 (4.25am)

Kiss The Bridge ran the fastest sectional in the race from 600m to 200m and he looked like he might win the race, but his effort peaked in the final 200m and he finished 3rd. He's never won 1st up or 2nd up so he should be ready to peak on his 3rd start of the prep. He also steps up to 1800m which is the shortest trip he has won over so that is another plus.

Kiss The Bridge @ 3/1 with everyone

Kensington R5 (5.00am)

Frankely Awesome was a big priced winner for us last month and this daughter of Frankel can go in again for me. She had hinted she was finding her best form again and she delivered last time beating Sixties Groove who boosted the form by winning the Grafton Cup last week. She does drop back in trip 200m, but I don't think it will matter and hopefully she can win again for us.

Frankely Awesome @ 9/2 with Betfair

Kensington R6 (5.40am)

Another winner I put up last time out was Handspun and he was really impressive in beating Cristal Breeze. He had to force his way out that day as well and was a dominant winner once he got out. He could easily follow up. I am also going to cover Man Of Peace who has been running really consistently of late. I put him up when he was 2nd at Flemington a month ago and he was only just denied late on by a good horse. He will look to make all and hopefully it will be Handspun whose the one who is running him down and it won't matter who wins.

Handspun @ 7/5 with Bet365

Man Of Peace @ 9/2 with Betfair

Kensington R8 (7.00am)

Strawb steps up to metro level here but I think she is good enough to land this. She has looked really good the last twice at Newcastle and is clearly progressive. She went off at short odds last time, but the time she clocked suggests she is a good horse and more than up to a BM78.

Strawb @ 6/4 with William Hill and Betfair