Racing Chat - Saturday 16th March

[Darran]

Instead of watching Fontwell's hunter chase night on Thursday I was studying the form for Flemington, Rosehill and Morphettville! Flemington is my main focus with bets in 5 races although the big race of the day is at Morphettville with the Group 1 Goodwood stakes for the sprinters. I have 3 bets there and 3 bets from Rosehill also.

Flemington R3 (3.55am)

November Dreaming is the first selection in this BM78. She is dropping back in class having run in a G2 at Morphettivlle earlier in the month. She wasn't helped by the slow pace in that race and found herself further back than the jockey had planned on being. She looked a good horse when winning at Pakenham the time before and back down in class with Craig Williams back on board she looks to have a cracking chance.

The other one I like is Merited who does seem to be over priced. She has only had 3 starts, but she won her 1st two on her 1st prep at the back end of last year. She returned at Sandown a couple of weeks ago when running well over 1400m in testing ground before tiring late on when fitness told. Florent was in front of her that day, but on her 2nd win she had beaten the same horse. She is going to strip fitter here and on better ground this extra 200m shouldn't be an issue.

November Dreaming @ 11/4 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor & Betfred

Merited e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor

Flemington R4 (4.30am)

I put up Sikorsky last week, but he was a non-runner because of the ground. It will be better here and obviously I still like his chances. His connections have been patient waiting for the rain to stop and hopefully that can pay off here. He looks ready to win 3rd up this prep having clocked the fastest 200m last time at Caulfield when he flew home to finish 2nd. He looks ready to win on the back of that effort going up to 1600m.

I've got to stick Duke Of Plumpton in as well. I am slightly concerned the going might not be soft enough although I suspect if it was too quick they would take him out. He was 2nd to Shot Of Irish when I put him up at Sandown a couple of weeks ago and that one backed up by winning at Caulfield last Saturday. If there is enough cut in the ground then he will surely go close with the form looking good.

Sikorsky @ 100/30 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred

Duke Of Plumpton @ 19/5 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (5.10am)

The big race on the card is The Andrew Ramsden and the horse who wins this gets a ballot exemption to this year's Melbourne Cup. There is every chance we could see a genuine Cup contender as well in the shape of King Of Leogrance who has really improved this year. First off he finished 2nd at Caulfield over 1800m before stepping up to 2600m here and winning a Listed Race. He then went to Morpettville for the G2 Adelaide Cup and he bolted up looking really impressive in the process. Unlike the Melbourne Cup this isn't a handicap so he is well weighted in this. He hasn't run for 2 months, but we saw last week and in the Melbourne Cup last year that his trainer can prep them more like an European horse anyway. His owner has already been public about how he wants the horse to be ridden so expect him to be 3 wide and away from the rails if Damien follows instructions.

Away from him it looks quite open, but I am going to have a small e/w interest on Norway. I put him up at Randwick about a month ago and he ran OK over a trip short of his best. He was much better at Sandown a couple of weeks ago on a heavy track when 3rd. That was over 2100m and going up to 2800m on a quicker surface should be ideal for him. He looks over priced.

King Of Leogrance @ 6/4 with William Hill & Betfred

Norway e/w @ 25/1 with BetVictor & Betfred

Flemington R7 (6.30am)

Rupture is the obvious one in this as he was so impressive in landing the hat-trick over 1700m here last time. Now he was the only leader to win all day so it is possible he defied a track bias, but it was also a slowly run race so that would have suited him. He might win again, but I see little juice in his price and I am going to back Super Titus e/w instead. He used to be trained in the UK when he was known as Titus and he was a useful horse for Declan Carroll having won a good handicap at the Ebor meeting in 2018 and then following that up with a 4th off 103 in the Mallard at Doncaster. He has had 10 starts already in Australia and has only actually won over 1700m despite the fact you would think he would need further than that based on his form in the UK. He's run in some good races in Australia and I think he is in a race he can win now. He flew home on his last two starts at Caulfield and then behind Rupture last time finishing 3rd on both occasions. Up to 2000m should be ideal for him and I think he has a chance of reversing form with Rupture.

Keep an eye on Schabau who is an ex-German horse. He won his last two starts in Germany before landing a hat-trick in early 2019 on his first 3 starts in Australia. He looks a really promising horse and a possible Melbourne Cup contender, but he has been off with a tendon injury so I think he will need this. His trainer has suggested he would be about 85% fit. If that turns out to be enough then he really would be a big contender for the Cup. I also mentioned Dadoozdart when he made his Australian debut in the same race that Rupture won. He ran OK over a trip too short for him. Clearly the step-up in trip will help and he should strip fitter, but I think he will need softer ground and a bit further so it is another watching brief with him.

Super Titus e/w @ 14/1 with BetVictor & Betfred

Flemington R8 (7.10am)

Achernar Star has to be the main pick in this Handicap. He did well enough 1st up over 1100m at Caulfield, but showed he had come on plenty for that when 2nd to the very promising Buffalo River at Sandown a couple of weeks ago. The 3rd was a horse called Harbour Views who I will be tipping up at Morphettville a bit further down. That was his first start on a heavy track and this better going will help. He was 4th in the G1 Railway Stakes at Ascot in November over 1600m, but 1400m is no issue for him and I am keen on his chances here.

I am going to have a saver on Sirius Suspect who has been showing good form this year. He won 3 starts back over 1200m here in February before finishing a very good 2nd over course and distance in March. He then went back to 1200m at Caulfield last month and finished 5th in a quickly run race where he was keen. Back up to this trip will be ideal and he has a very good record at Flemington only finishing out of the frame twice.

Achernar Star @ 100/30 with Betfair

Sirius Suspect @ 13/2 with Bet365

Rosehill R5 (4.55am)

I was going to put Adelong up last week, but she was a non-runner before I got chance to write the preview. She has only had 5 starts having won her first 3 and then finishing 2nd the last twice. Her first start of this prep was at Canterbury where she finished a neck 2nd against a race fit rival. She should come on for that and if she does she has a cracking chance. One of the main dangers is Lashes who beat Adelong in January, but Adelong is 6kg better off her so should be capable of reversing form. What I will add though is Lashes is usually pretty good 1st up and has trialled well. L'Cosmo wouldn't be out of this either as she was 2nd to Fituese last time (more on her later), but she has finished 2nd in 8 of her 12 starts which is obviously a big concern.

Adelong @ 11/8 with William Hill, BetVictor & Betfred

Rosehill R6 (5.35am)

Graff is likely to go off favourite here and this is probably his easiest ask in a while. He ran well enough 1st up when 4th over course and distance and should go well. I am going to take him on though with a couple. Ranier really impressed me at Randwick last month and the 2nd has won since and ran well again in a good race on Friday. The concern would be the drop to 1300m, but hopefully Hugh will be able to sit closer to the pace than he did the last day where he also didn't get the clearest of runs. He will be finishing fast so hopefully we can have another Hugh special.

The 3yos have been doing well in Sydney when they have been going into all aged company and Eleven Eleven could well be capable of winning. He's had no luck with the draw both starts this prep and had the quickest 600m-400m and 400m-200m splits in a G2 at Randwick 1st up. Things didn't really pan out here last time, but 1300m looks the ideal trip for him at the moment. He was a good 2nd in the Magic Millions Guineas at the Gold Coast in January and that run would see him go close in this now he finally has a good draw (he was even drawn 15/15 that day).

Ranier @ 5/1 with everyone

Eleven Eleven @ 100/30 with William Hill, BetVictor, Betfair & Betfred

Rosehill R7 (6.15am)

I mentioned Fituese above and she was hugely impressive in the race she won 1st up a couple of weeks. That was only a BM72 and she is up to Listed class here, but she won in a fast time and she bolted up. She looks a group horse in the making based on that effort and she can make her record 5 from 7 here. The only slight concern is she did bomb out 2nd up during her 1st prep, but as long as she doesn't do that here she ought to win. Wayupinthesky looks the main danger as she's run 2nd twice this prep in good races including behind the flying Rubisaki last time. She does have to give a lot of weight away though to the selection.

Fituese @ 5/4 with William Hill, Betfred, Betfair & BetVictor

Morphettville R6 (6.05am)

Girl Tuesday looks a decent bet in this Listed contest for Chris Waller. She was pretty unlucky at Rosehill last time as she just couldn't get a run at all and was still beaten only 2L She steps up in trip by 500m, but that shouldn't be an issue, indeed it should help her running style and she is back against her own sex.

I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Lamu who is an ex-French runner who I put up last time when she was 3rd at Flemington only just beaten having not had the clearest of runs. I think the step up in trip will suit and she can get the better of Naivasha who won that contest on her 3rd Australian start.

A quick mention for Fidelia who was also entered at Flemington where I was going to tip her up. I am not going to back her here, but she ran really well in a G2 over 1600m a couple of weeks ago. The step up to this trip looks like it will suit and she wouldn't be out of this.

Girl Tuesday @ 9/4 with Bet365

Lamu e/w @ 17/2 with BetVictor

Morphettville R7 (6.45am)

Strictly speaking on ratings Harbour Views has a bit to find on ratings with some of these, but I think he can prove up to the task. He has won 5 of his 7 starts and has finished 2nd and 3rd in the other two. As I mentioned earlier he was 3rd behind Buffalo River and Sandown a couple of weeks ago and I think that was a strong piece of form. He is 2/2 2nd up and that was his first run on a heavy track so coming onto better ground should be ideal for him. He goes from 1400m to 1600m here which is another tick in the box. Seabrook looks the main danger having finished 2nd in a Group 2 over course and distance last time.

Harbour Views @ 13/8 with William Hill & Betfred

Morphettville (R8 7.25am)

The big race of the day in Australia is The Goodwood and it looks a decent renewal as well. Gytrash is the favourite and it is easy to see why given he has plenty of top class including winning the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington in February. He was then 3rd in the Newmarket and 2nd in the William Reid. He was then given a month's break and was an easy winner in front of Sunlight in a G3 here last month. He clearly has a big chance, but I am going to look elsewhere at bigger odds.

Santa Ana Lane was a little disappointing last time, but I don't think he is at her best over 1400m and it wasn't a bad effort Prior to that he was the one who chased Nature Strip home in the T J Smith. For me that is the best recent form in the race and it came on a heavy track which isn't ideal for him. He looks over priced for me.

The other one I like is last year's 2nd Behemoth. This would have been the target for him so we know he will have been trained to peak for this. He was 2nd to Jungle Edge in a G3 over 1100m here a couple of weeks ago. Jungle Edge loves a wet track so I do think on this quicker surface he can reverse the form with that run under his belt as well. He looks over priced at double figure odds.

Sunlight ran no sort of race in the Sangster last time and connections had no excuse. If she can bounce back she is a big player. Trekking looks ready to peak here and would be another danger,

Santa Ana Lane @ 13/2 with Bet365

Behemoth @ 11/1 with William Hill (4 places)

[BillyHills]

I'm concentrating on Rosehill and Auteuil 

 

Nap: 105 Au: Nimes 1/1 bet365

Nb: 420 Rs: Masked Crusader 10/11 betvic

Treble: 135 Au: Figuero 13/8 betvic

9/1 treble 

 

EW bets

455 R: Broken Arrows 9/1 bet365
735 R: Bon Amis 10/1 betvic
315 Au: Birdparker 14/1 betvic