Racing Chat - Friday Mar 20th

[Darran]

A week ago we were all thinking about who was going to win on the final day of Cheltenham and I was sorting out my final update for the Foxhunter preview (I will get round to reviewing that race by the way). Things have obviously moved fast since then and I am going to turn my attention to racing in Australia of which there is plenty of top class action not just this weekend, but in the upcoming weeks as well (as long as they can carry on racing behind closed doors)

A year ago I was in Australia and I took in a visit to Moonee Valley for their William Reid Stakes card which is the finale to the night racing season at the track. Last year's renewal had an odds on favourite in Sunlight and she duly ran out a comfortable winner of what was a pretty weak renewal. This year's contest (off at 9.30am UK time) looks much stronger and the market is headed by the Godolphin owned Bivouac. He ran out a very impressive winner of the Newmarket at Flemington last time out where he quickened away in great style to beat Loving Gaby, Gytrash and Zoutori who all re-oppose here. That win makes him the one they all have to beat here, but he has drawn the inside barrier just as he did in the G1 Manikato Stakes over course and distance in October. That night he got no luck in running at all and if you had backed him you would have been tearing your hair out in frustration as Kerrin McEvoy had no chance of finding a run. Hugh Bowman takes the ride here and he will be fully aware that he needs to avoid a repeat. At Flemington he really pinged the lids and if that happens again here you would hope that Bowman is able to go forward and sit in behind likely front runner Pippie who is likely to come across from stall 10 and make the running. If he gets the ideal run he is likely to be hard to beat.

Speaking of Pippie she landed the G1 Oakleigh Plate over 1100m at Caulfield last month and Bivouac was back in 6th, but granted luck in running Bivouac should reverse the form. That was his first run of the season and was clearly being used as a prep for the Newmarket and although Pippie has won over 1200m twice she was in desperate need for the line that day and I can't help thinking at least one horse is going to finish too strongly for her.

Loving Gaby is so consistent and is almost sure to run her race, but she was probably fortunate to win the Manikato and on the Newmarket form she can't beat Bivouac. She is 2/2 at the track though. Exceedance as poor in the Newmarket finishing just 6th, but he won the Coolmore Stud at the Melbourne Cup Carinval and he beat Bivouac that day by 0.4L so if he can bounce back from the Newmarket run, which was his first run since the Coolmore win, then he has to be a player.

The other one at a price who catches my eye is Vital Silver who ran a good race to finish 2nd in the Manikato. He had to come from a long way back and travel wide round the home bend so it was a good run in the circumstances. He has drawn stall 9 here which will might well mean he has to do the same here, but at least we know he runs this track well. After that he finished 2nd in the G1 Winterbottom at Ascot in Perth. He is 1st up here, but his first up record is good (2 wins and 2 places in 5 starts) so that might not be too much of a concern and he is a 20/1 shot. 

I do think Bivouac is the most likely winner and hopefully he breaks well and Hugh can get him in a nice handy position early so he pounce in the short straight. If Exceedance can bounce back from his 1st up run in the Newmarket then he might turn out to be the biggest danger. Loving Gaby is almost certain to run her race and it is hard to see her out of the first 4, whilst Vital Silver appeals e/w at a big price.

1. Bivouac (15/8)  Paddy Power

2. Exceedance

3. Loving Gaby

4. Vital Silver

The following race is the Group 2 Sunline Stakes (10am) and last year's 2nd Spanish Reef (went off favourite) has her chances, but the one I like is Princess Jenni who won the Alexandra Stakes on this card 12 months ago. It was a hell of a performance as she had to come 6 wide round the home bend and she finished off the race really strongly to win. She won her next two stats including the Schweppes Oaks at Morphetville. First up this season she ran a very eye-catching race over 1400m at Flemington 2 weeks ago. She was a long way back and then finished off the race very strongly to finish 3rd and Ben Melham wasn't overly hard on her to do so. She is 2/2 at the track and 3/3 2nd up and I think she has a really strong chance of making those 3/3 and 4/4.

Princess Jenni (15/8)  Hills

[BillyHills]

Also we have Dundalk, Jebel Ali and Fairview on Friday

Thurles and Group 1 action in Australia on Saturday

 

Nap: 330 Dun: Followmefollowyou 4/1 betvic

Nb: 430 Dun: Major Power 3/1 bet365

EW: 300 Dun: Presgrave 12/1 bet365