Cheltenham 2020 Previews

[richard-westwood]

Just looking at a few races before chelt starting with the champ hurdle 

Currently 31 runners I'll use trends to chop down the field ...

No bigger than 9/2 last time out 

We lose ....2..6..8..12..14..15...16..17..18..19..21..22..25..26..27..31...

Leaving 

1..3..4..5..7..9..10..11..13..20...23..24...28..29..30

That's chopped the field in half ...much more manageable 15 runners 

Ran over 15.5 to 16f last time ....loses 11..23..28...leaves 12 

Always won by a classy horse but can get the odd surprise but always below 16/1 so we lose anything well over 16 

Lose 1..3..4. 5..7..9..10..

Leaves 5 horses .....winner must be in this 5 

Fusil raffles   Pentland hills ...Sharjah...epatante...honeysuckle  

Now I can rate 5 horses 

Fusil ......rating 200  Class   300 total 500

Pentland   rating 203   class  300 total 503

Sharjah   rating 221   class   580  total 801

Epatante    rating   212   Class   640 total 852

Honeysuckle    rating 225   Class  830 ...total 1052 

As you can see ...leaves 2 clear horses ...Epatante and honeysuckle with the latter clear of all ....sharjah looks a big priced ew selection at 14s ....but for me receiving 7lb from the boys and having run within the magical 42 days ....Epatante (75)....the horse I want to be on is honeysuckle who now looks incredible value at 8s ...or 10.5 on betfair 

Will be 2nd leg of my annual supreme and champion hurdle ew double good odds too

An ew saver on sharjah for Mullins is not a bad bet either ...very good value around 14s  

Edited February 23, 2020 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Supreme novices 

Leg 1 of my big chelt double is wide open this year 

Always won by a classy horse there arent many contenders this year which helps ...so I'll take everything within 16/1 

Only leaves 6 horses so that basically chips the entire field ready to rate 

Shishkin  rating 200   Class  301 total 501

Abacadabras  rating  299  Class  540 total 839 

Asterion   rating  306   Class  770 total 1006

Fiddler  rating   280  Class  299   total 579 

Captain    rating  250  Class  270  total 520

Chantry   rating  180  Class   266  total 446

 

Again  seems 2 horse race ....Mullins asterion forlonge and abacadbras ....both currently hovering around 5/1 ....a 10pt ew double on top 2 in both pays over 500pts worse case so that's what I'll play