richard-westwood Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 (edited) Just looking at a few races before chelt starting with the champ hurdle Currently 31 runners I'll use trends to chop down the field ... No bigger than 9/2 last time out We lose ....2..6..8..12..14..15...16..17..18..19..21..22..25..26..27..31... Leaving 1..3..4..5..7..9..10..11..13..20...23..24...28..29..30 That's chopped the field in half ...much more manageable 15 runners Ran over 15.5 to 16f last time ....loses 11..23..28...leaves 12 Always won by a classy horse but can get the odd surprise but always below 16/1 so we lose anything well over 16 Lose 1..3..4. 5..7..9..10.. Leaves 5 horses .....winner must be in this 5 Fusil raffles Pentland hills ...Sharjah...epatante...honeysuckle Now I can rate 5 horses Fusil ......rating 200 Class 300 total 500 Pentland rating 203 class 300 total 503 Sharjah rating 221 class 580 total 801 Epatante rating 212 Class 640 total 852 Honeysuckle rating 225 Class 830 ...total 1052 As you can see ...leaves 2 clear horses ...Epatante and honeysuckle with the latter clear of all ....sharjah looks a big priced ew selection at 14s ....but for me receiving 7lb from the boys and having run within the magical 42 days ....Epatante (75)....the horse I want to be on is honeysuckle who now looks incredible value at 8s ...or 10.5 on betfair Will be 2nd leg of my annual supreme and champion hurdle ew double good odds too An ew saver on sharjah for Mullins is not a bad bet either ...very good value around 14s Edited February 23, 2020 by richard-westwood Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 Supreme novices Leg 1 of my big chelt double is wide open this year Always won by a classy horse there arent many contenders this year which helps ...so I'll take everything within 16/1 Only leaves 6 horses so that basically chips the entire field ready to rate Shishkin rating 200 Class 301 total 501 Abacadabras rating 299 Class 540 total 839 Asterion rating 306 Class 770 total 1006 Fiddler rating 280 Class 299 total 579 Captain rating 250 Class 270 total 520 Chantry rating 180 Class 266 total 446 Again seems 2 horse race ....Mullins asterion forlonge and abacadbras ....both currently hovering around 5/1 ....a 10pt ew double on top 2 in both pays over 500pts worse case so that's what I'll play Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I’ve been on Abacadabras for months. He’s the more solid bet than any of them. Your two main ones for the champion hurdle are the two classy ones this season, but I think Pentland Hills will edge it. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 23, 2020 Author Share Posted February 23, 2020 I just hope honeysuckle takes her chance ....possibility they will go for the mares hurdle but I think that would be a crazy cop out given the level of form the horse has shown and is fit and flying at home ......Pentland hills is a decent horse and n Henderson always needs respect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Honeysuckle has more chance in this than she probably would the mares against Benie. Then again Benie might be going to the Stayers yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty1290 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I really like Asterion. But i really think Fiddlerontheroof is the forgotten horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 10 hours ago, Matty1290 said: I really like Asterion. But i really think Fiddlerontheroof is the forgotten horse Aba , Asterion and Fiddlerontheroof are my top three . Asterion is perhaps a bit green but you cannot ignore that last run even though he only beat average horses. Mullins horse and has taken the Klassical Dream route too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Interesting stats for the handicaps, taken from the media pack Villa Chris and kroni 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 Really looking forward to the big hcaps....got all the top races programmed in .just gonna have 10pt running doubles on the big races and go for a mega win ...just need final entries!!!.... vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 (edited) On 2/23/2020 at 4:00 PM, richard-westwood said: Supreme novices Leg 1 of my big chelt double is wide open this year Always won by a classy horse there arent many contenders this year which helps ...so I'll take everything within 16/1 Only leaves 6 horses so that basically chips the entire field ready to rate Shishkin rating 200 Class 301 total 501 Abacadabras rating 299 Class 540 total 839 Asterion rating 306 Class 770 total 1006 Fiddler rating 280 Class 299 total 579 Captain rating 250 Class 270 total 520 Chantry rating 180 Class 266 total 446 Again seems 2 horse race ....Mullins asterion forlonge and abacadbras ....both currently hovering around 5/1 ....a 10pt ew double on top 2 in both pays over 500pts worse case so that's what I'll play Abacadbras passes 14 of 15 of my trends so he's definately supreme material ....fiddleron theroof passes 13 /15 so couldn't put anyone off that one ....only horse better is envoi allen who passes all 15 trends but is entered for 3 races currently ....if he goes for this then would warrant serious respect ....he would be top 3 rated on my ratings here and top on trends but I still think abaccadbras is the one they all have to beat ..... In the champion .....sharjah passes all trends and honeysuckle passes 13/15 ....these 2 match with my own ratings so it's a 2 horse race for me .....yes you can make cases for others but 7 previous champion winners came from honeysuckles race ...I'll be very surprised if one of them doesn't go close so at the moment its easy choice Abacadras Asterion Envoy danger if runs Champion Honeysuckle and sharjah both ew Just the ultima to tackle for day 1 now ...urrgh ....that will be fun....I've set a limit that I'll only consider horses that pass a minimum of 9/13 trends .....then rate the 8 or 10 horses that will be left hopefully ...that should ensure fantastic value in whatever it throws up then and that's the name of the game but i won't be able to finalise that until a day or two before Edited February 28, 2020 by richard-westwood Villa Chris, Sparky Bear and EviL ZippY 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 (edited) If the ground did turn up with good in the description then I’d probably have an e/w bet on Edwardstone. His form is not too shabby at all. Edited March 3, 2020 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 honeysuckle now moved to mares' hurdle instead richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Best bet for me next week is to back anything that the talented Irish Conditional Oakley Brown rides His 7lb claim has been protected by his guvnor Joseph O'Brien, and in my opinion the reason will become apparent at all the Spring Festivals! Blazing Bailey 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) For the Arkle I’ve narrowed it down to ... Brewin’Upastorm Mister Fisher( Tip) Notebook Rough Vif Also Al Dancer has place claims . Edited March 4, 2020 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: For the Arkle I’ve narrowed it down to ... Brewin’Upastorm Mister Fisher( Tip) Notebook Rough Vif Also Al Dancer has strong place claims . Notebook 712 313 total 1025 Cash back 685 307 total 992 Fakir douderies 655 307 total 962 I'd say notebook is easily the one in this but cashback has been backed heavily in recent days ....might be the ew value bet for Mr Mullins And he's won 4 of last 5 arkle ....definately ew value....yes I think cashback ew is the way to go Edited March 4, 2020 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 25 minutes ago, Striker said: Best bet for me next week is to back anything that the talented Irish Conditional Oakley Brown rides His 7lb claim has been protected by his guvnor Joseph O'Brien, and in my opinion the reason will become apparent at all the Spring Festivals! I 'm keeping a close eye on Joseph O'Biens handicap runners a Chelt even better if he sticks a 7lb claimer on top! Striker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Notebook 712 313 total 1025 Cash back 685 307 total 992 Fakir douderies 655 307 total 962 I'd say notebook is easily the one in this but cashback has been backed heavily in recent days ....might be the ew value bet for Mr Mullins And he's won 4 of last 5 arkle ....definately ew value....yes I think cashback ew is the way to go I liked the look of Cash Back but he’s down on a few trends. Notebook deserved favourite and one to beat, but for value Mister Fisher appeals. Saying that favourites do well in this race. Notebook will be doubled up on the day.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 1:31 PM, vikki37 said: honeysuckle now moved to mares' hurdle instead Yeah after much thinking I'm gonna go 20pts ew Sharjah ....and 10pt win place on verdana blue at 40.0 Betfair....I just think the horse is overpriced and very capable on a going day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Yeah after much thinking I'm gonna go 20pts ew Sharjah ....and 10pt win place on verdana blue at 40.0 Betfair....I just think the horse is overpriced and very capable on a going day If the ground isn’t too soft then there are worse bets to have than Verdana Blue. Epantante ticks a lot of boxes but not much value other than putting her in a double. Ive just had Cilaos Emery 6/1 and e/w on Couer Sublime 16/1 richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Big odds players Ballyandy 20/1 and Silver Streak 25/1 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 First run through of ultima has these 4 currently top .....I would probably oppose vindication as he has a high weight in this ....la bague might not run in this but would warrant serious respect if he does so I hope he does ....the other two look perfect types for this ...tough and capable ....so I have these 3 pencilled in so far Mister malarkey 380 360 tot740 La bague au roi 420 350 tot 760 Cepage 390 351 tot 741 Vindication 400 299 tot 699 Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Doesn’t Vindication also prefer going right handed? La bague au roi has been very disappointing this season, but I’ve always liked Mister Malarkey and will run it’s race . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Looking at those handicap charts that billy posted horses in the 140s have a very good record in the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) La bague trainer is delighted with horse and the way it's perform.ing at home ...he was going to Aintree but has decided the horse is so well hrs coming here ...also entered for plate ...I will follow the horse...but based on ratings I hope he goes for this...I think he would run a big race....I like Cepage too ...Venetia is a shrewd trainer and has been fairly quiet ..I'm thinking she's owed a big prize or 2 ....I'll wait and see as loads might drop out yet...my final check for big races is if they are in in first 9 betting ...and they are all 3 do it's a no brainer for me on all 3 if they run Edited March 5, 2020 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 vintage clouds is one I've always liked and did place the last two years in Cheltenham Festival. let's hope the festival won't be cancelled due to the coronavirus. or all these rating efforts would be a waste. ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, vikki37 said: vintage clouds is one I've always liked and did place the last two years in Cheltenham Festival. let's hope the festival won't be cancelled due to the coronavirus. or all these rating efforts would be a waste. ?? I'm glad I'm.not going ...all those people from.all diff countries in one place ...you can guarantee someone will have it ...it's out the bag now vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, vikki37 said: vintage clouds is one I've always liked and did place the last two years in Cheltenham Festival. let's hope the festival won't be cancelled due to the coronavirus. or all these rating efforts would be a waste. ?? One of my favourites , but it’s mark is too high for it to win. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 53 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I'm glad I'm.not going ...all those people from.all diff countries in one place ...you can guarantee someone will have it ...it's out the bag now Won’t be long before it hits footy matches. Ive already sold my ticket for our next home game. Ain’t worth the risk. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 On 3/4/2020 at 7:38 PM, Striker said: Best bet for me next week is to back anything that the talented Irish Conditional Oakley Brown rides His 7lb claim has been protected by his guvnor Joseph O'Brien, and in my opinion the reason will become apparent at all the Spring Festivals! Oakley has a ride in the final race on Friday for Joseph [note he also runs the fav] on Assemble Have taken the 25-1 each way [5 places] with William Hill as Brown is unbeaten on the horse [2/2] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Non Runner! Jockey now switches to an outsider: Anything Will Do So minimum each way saver @ 125-1 [5 places] with Bet Victor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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