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richard-westwood

Cheltenham 2020 Previews

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Just looking at a few races before chelt starting with the champ hurdle 

Currently 31 runners I'll use trends to chop down the field ...

No bigger than 9/2 last time out 

We lose ....2..6..8..12..14..15...16..17..18..19..21..22..25..26..27..31...

Leaving 

1..3..4..5..7..9..10..11..13..20...23..24...28..29..30

That's chopped the field in half ...much more manageable 15 runners 

Ran over 15.5 to 16f last time ....loses 11..23..28...leaves 12 

Always won by a classy horse but can get the odd surprise but always below 16/1 so we lose anything well over 16 

Lose 1..3..4. 5..7..9..10..

Leaves 5 horses .....winner must be in this 5 

Fusil raffles   Pentland hills ...Sharjah...epatante...honeysuckle  

Now I can rate 5 horses 

Fusil ......rating 200  Class   300 total 500

Pentland   rating 203   class  300 total 503

Sharjah   rating 221   class   580  total 801

Epatante    rating   212   Class   640 total 852

Honeysuckle    rating 225   Class  830 ...total 1052 

As you can see ...leaves 2 clear horses ...Epatante and honeysuckle with the latter clear of all ....sharjah looks a big priced ew selection at 14s ....but for me receiving 7lb from the boys and having run within the magical 42 days ....Epatante (75)....the horse I want to be on is honeysuckle who now looks incredible value at 8s ...or 10.5 on betfair 

Will be 2nd leg of my annual supreme and champion hurdle ew double good odds too

An ew saver on sharjah for Mullins is not a bad bet either ...very good value around 14s  

Edited by richard-westwood

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Supreme novices 

Leg 1 of my big chelt double is wide open this year 

Always won by a classy horse there arent many contenders this year which helps ...so I'll take everything within 16/1 

Only leaves 6 horses so that basically chips the entire field ready to rate 

Shishkin  rating 200   Class  301 total 501

Abacadabras  rating  299  Class  540 total 839 

Asterion   rating  306   Class  770 total 1006

Fiddler  rating   280  Class  299   total 579 

Captain    rating  250  Class  270  total 520

Chantry   rating  180  Class   266  total 446

 

Again  seems 2 horse race ....Mullins asterion forlonge and abacadbras ....both currently hovering around 5/1 ....a 10pt ew double on top 2 in both pays over 500pts worse case so that's what I'll play 

 

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10 hours ago, Matty1290 said:

I really like Asterion. But i really think Fiddlerontheroof is the forgotten horse

Aba , Asterion and Fiddlerontheroof are my top three . Asterion is perhaps a bit green but you cannot ignore that last run even though he only beat average horses. Mullins horse and has taken the Klassical Dream route too.

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On 2/23/2020 at 4:00 PM, richard-westwood said:

Supreme novices 

Leg 1 of my big chelt double is wide open this year 

Always won by a classy horse there arent many contenders this year which helps ...so I'll take everything within 16/1 

Only leaves 6 horses so that basically chips the entire field ready to rate 

Shishkin  rating 200   Class  301 total 501

Abacadabras  rating  299  Class  540 total 839 

Asterion   rating  306   Class  770 total 1006

Fiddler  rating   280  Class  299   total 579 

Captain    rating  250  Class  270  total 520

Chantry   rating  180  Class   266  total 446

 

Again  seems 2 horse race ....Mullins asterion forlonge and abacadbras ....both currently hovering around 5/1 ....a 10pt ew double on top 2 in both pays over 500pts worse case so that's what I'll play 

 

Abacadbras passes 14 of 15 of my trends so he's definately supreme material ....fiddleron theroof passes 13 /15 so couldn't put anyone off that one ....only horse better is envoi allen who passes all 15 trends but is entered for 3 races currently ....if he goes for this then would warrant serious respect ....he would be top 3 rated on my ratings here and top on trends but I still think abaccadbras is the one they all have to beat .....

In the champion .....sharjah passes all trends and honeysuckle passes 13/15 ....these 2 match with my own ratings so it's a 2 horse race for me .....yes you can make cases for others but 7 previous champion winners came from honeysuckles race ...I'll be very  surprised if one of them doesn't go close so at the moment its easy choice 

Abacadras 

Asterion

Envoy danger if runs 

Champion 

Honeysuckle and sharjah both ew  

 

Just the ultima to tackle for day 1 now ...urrgh ....that will be fun....I've set a limit that I'll only consider horses that pass a minimum of 9/13 trends .....then rate the 8 or 10 horses that will be left hopefully ...that should ensure fantastic value in whatever it throws up then and that's the name of the game but i won't be able to finalise that until a day or two before 

 

Edited by richard-westwood

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Best bet for me next week is to back anything that the talented Irish Conditional Oakley Brown rides

His 7lb claim has been protected by his guvnor Joseph O'Brien, and in my opinion the reason will become apparent at all the Spring Festivals! 

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26 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

For the Arkle I’ve narrowed it down to ...

Brewin’Upastorm 

Mister Fisher( Tip) 

Notebook 

Rough Vif 

Also Al Dancer has strong place claims .

Notebook  712  313 total 1025 

Cash back  685  307  total 992 

Fakir douderies   655 307 total 962 

I'd say notebook is easily the one in this but cashback has been backed heavily in recent days ....might be the ew value bet for Mr Mullins 

And he's won 4 of last 5 arkle ....definately ew value....yes I think cashback ew is the way to go 

Edited by richard-westwood

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25 minutes ago, Striker said:

Best bet for me next week is to back anything that the talented Irish Conditional Oakley Brown rides

His 7lb claim has been protected by his guvnor Joseph O'Brien, and in my opinion the reason will become apparent at all the Spring Festivals! 

I 'm keeping a close eye on Joseph O'Biens handicap runners a Chelt  even better if he sticks a 7lb claimer on top!

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17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Notebook  712  313 total 1025 

Cash back  685  307  total 992 

Fakir douderies   655 307 total 962 

I'd say notebook is easily the one in this but cashback has been backed heavily in recent days ....might be the ew value bet for Mr Mullins 

And he's won 4 of last 5 arkle ....definately ew value....yes I think cashback ew is the way to go 

I liked the look of Cash Back but he’s down on a few trends. Notebook deserved favourite and one to beat, but for value Mister Fisher appeals. Saying that favourites do well in this race. Notebook will be doubled up on the day..

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21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah after much thinking I'm gonna go 20pts ew Sharjah  ....and 10pt win place on verdana blue at 40.0 Betfair....I just think the horse is overpriced and very capable on a going day 

If the ground isn’t too soft then there are worse bets to have than Verdana Blue. 

Epantante ticks a lot of boxes but not much value other than putting her in a double.

Ive just had Cilaos Emery 6/1 and e/w on Couer Sublime 16/1

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First run through of ultima has these 4  currently top .....I would probably oppose vindication as he has a high weight in this ....la bague might not run in this but would warrant serious respect if he does so I hope he does ....the other two look perfect types for this ...tough and capable ....so I have these 3 pencilled in so far 

Mister malarkey 380 360 tot740 

La bague au roi 420 350 tot 760 

Cepage  390 351 tot 741

Vindication  400 299 tot 699

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La bague trainer is delighted with horse and the way it's perform.ing at home ...he was going to Aintree but has decided the horse is so well hrs coming here ...also entered for plate ...I will follow the horse...but based on ratings I hope he goes for this...I think he would run a big race....I like Cepage too ...Venetia is a shrewd trainer and has been fairly quiet ..I'm thinking she's owed a big prize or 2 ....I'll wait and see as loads might drop out yet...my final check for big races is if they are in in first 9 betting ...and they are all 3 do it's a no brainer for me on all 3 if they run 

Edited by richard-westwood

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vintage clouds is one I've always liked and did place the last two years in Cheltenham Festival. let's hope the festival won't be cancelled due to the coronavirus. or all these rating efforts would be a waste. 😢😢

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13 minutes ago, vikki37 said:

vintage clouds is one I've always liked and did place the last two years in Cheltenham Festival. let's hope the festival won't be cancelled due to the coronavirus. or all these rating efforts would be a waste. 😢😢

I'm glad I'm.not going ...all those people from.all diff countries in one place ...you can guarantee someone will have it ...it's out the bag now 

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1 hour ago, vikki37 said:

vintage clouds is one I've always liked and did place the last two years in Cheltenham Festival. let's hope the festival won't be cancelled due to the coronavirus. or all these rating efforts would be a waste. 😢😢

One of my favourites , but it’s mark is too high for it to win. 

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53 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm glad I'm.not going ...all those people from.all diff countries in one place ...you can guarantee someone will have it ...it's out the bag now 

Won’t be long before it hits footy matches. Ive already sold my ticket for our next home game. Ain’t worth the risk.

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On 3/4/2020 at 7:38 PM, Striker said:

Best bet for me next week is to back anything that the talented Irish Conditional Oakley Brown rides

His 7lb claim has been protected by his guvnor Joseph O'Brien, and in my opinion the reason will become apparent at all the Spring Festivals! 

Oakley has a ride in the final race on Friday for Joseph [note he also runs the fav] on Assemble

Have taken the 25-1 each way [5 places] with William Hill as Brown is unbeaten on the horse [2/2]

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