Hunter Chase - 4.20 Fakenham

[Darran]

After going through the form for Leicester's hunter chase on Wednesday night I planned to add Risk And Roll as a small 3rd bet along with the other two. I then worried he wouldn't see it out and his record under rules put me off so I thought he looked more a place chance than a win chance. The run at Larkhill was full of promise though and obviously I am kicking myself for not putting him up especially as Alfstar was pulled up yet again under rules. I shouldn't have given Alfstar another chance, but there we go and it sort of sums up how the season is going so far. Runs like this always look bad if they come at the start of the season, but I am seeing the races right and just not getting the luck either with the price or choosing the right one. I am sure it will turn hopefully at Fakenham.

As for the race itself Risk And Roll was an impressive winner in the end despite not jumping all that well. He clearly stays better than I wondered if he would and you wouldn't rule out him adding to this as the season goes on. Waterloo Warrior finished really strongly although the winner was eased up so was flattered a bit too finish so close. It was a good first effort though and he looks up to this grade. Kashmir Peak travelled well into the race, but didn't find much in the closing stages and it adds more doubt to the strength of Minella Rocco's form for me. Only two others finished and Irish Anthem and Asylo were both miles behind. The former weakened very quickly having looked like he would be in the first 3.

O'Ceallaigh was still bang in contention when he unseated at 2 out. It looked like he took over a bit too early and he gave his jockey no chance. I don't think he would have won, but he hadn't been asked for his effort yet so it is hard to know where he would have finished. Magna Sam was very disappointing although his trainer blamed the going. He was a bit of a strange on course gamble although most of them shortened up apart from Kashmir Peak and the outsider so as the betting suggests plenty of connections fancied their chances in this. Alfstar never got involved and surely connections will now just stick to points with him. I hope so anyway as no doubt he will go and win next time without any of my cash on him!

 

Onto Fakenham on Friday we go and we have another Maxwell odds on shot in Shantou Flyer. Obviously his 2nd at Cheltenham last year is miles clear of anything else in this race and I honestly thought he was going to be a 1/2 shot rather than the 5/6-4/5 that he currently is. His owner wasn't on him when he won at Larkhill on his seasonal return and although that was far from the form that he showed when 2nd at Cheltenham, that was his first run since and it is worth remembering he was a well beaten 5th behind Hazel Hill at Warwick on his return last year. Given today's winner has given the form a massive boost as well it is hard to see him getting beat here.

Haymount is 2nd in the betting which is right as well. He was pulled up in the Foxhunter last year so does have work to do to beat Shantou Flyer based on that. He was sent off favourite for the 4m race on Cheltenham's hunter chase night, but he didn't stay and faded into 4th place. He returned last month at Sheriff Hutton when finishing an 8L 2nd to The Dellercheckout which was obviously a good run especially as he had race fitness on his side. I think he is better than he showed in the Foxhunter as he never travelled that day, but it is hard to see him beating a peak Shantou Flyer.

The rest all look to have a bit too find. Tullys Touch had Full Irish (3rd) 7L behind him at Ampton although the time was very slow. On his other start he was 2nd to Foxhunter hope Law Of Gold at Horseheath a couple of weeks ago. Full Irish looked firmly on the downgrade when he was running under rules last season although he is only 9 so might be able to find some form at some stage. As much as I don't think he will trouble the top two Llancillo Lord was running a good race at Ludlow last week until he unseated and he could be best of the rest. The trip would be a concern, as it was in that Ludlow race, but if he was to get away with it anywhere it would be round here.

Haymount is clearly a good horse and is capable of winning a hunter chase and he would be a strong pick to win this if it wasn't for Shantou Flyer. It was a solid return at Larkhill and he should be able to improve on that as he did last season. Like I mention above I was expecting a lot shorter than is so he has to be a bet.

Shantou Flyer 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365 (5/6 with William Hill with no BOG)

[MCLARKE]

Hope your luck turns soon. 

With my own system, which has been profitable for a number of years, I had a run in Jan of 1 winner in 24. Then in Feb I have had 5 winners out of 8.