Hunter Chase - 4.15 Ludlow

[Darran]

The 11/4 about The Dellercheckout didn't last anymore than 2 minutes and within about 20 it was into 6/4 with Bet365. At the time of writing he is a best price of 11/8 which is certainly more realistic than the 11/4 to start with. He seems to have turned a corner for new connections as the best of his chase form was a win in a 5 runner race off 116 at Taunton a year ago. Connections put the improved run down to the fact he wore blinkers and they didn't work the 2nd time as he pulled up at Chepstow in April. Having cost £260k in March 2017 his new connections paid just £21k last year. Interestingly the headgear isn't needed anymore as he has won 2/2 in points. First up he beat Don Bersy by a length and Don Bersy beat Bishops Road (apparently Cheltenham Foxhunters bound) in November and won on his next start so that form looks solid. He then ran out a easy winner in soft ground at Sheriff Hutton and connections have mentioned possibly going to Cheltenham with him. He is only 7 and the pointing form does seem a step up on his rules form for Nicholls, but obviously we don't know how he is going to go back under rules.

Monbeg Gold has moved from Jonjo to his wife and it is her first ever runner under rules although I think she has had 6 runners in points from what I can tell. He was off from May 17 until October 18 so clearly had an issue and in that time he had a wind op. He needed the first run over hurdles, but back over fences he won in November and then in April last year off 115 and 118. He was raised to 130 after that when he unseated at Uttoxeter way too early to know what he would have done. My guess is they want to be aiming him at either Cheltenham or Aintree and he has run well after a lay off before. The Southwell win got him a Racing Post Rating of 136 and if he repeats that that might well be enough to win.

Dieu Vivant was unfortunate at Ludlow when the falling Alcala hampered him over course and distance last month. He was still travelling well enough at that stage so he might well have given Alcala a race. He should come on for that run as well and although they went no gallop which might mean the form is a bit suspect, there doesn't look like there will be a great deal of pace in this race either. He is far from out of this.

Llancillo Lord won a weak Fakenham hunter chase last year and was then 5th at Kelso and 2nd over 2m1f at Stratford on hunter chase night. I'm not sure he wants this trip although if they do go no pace that will help, but I also don't think he will be good enough anyway.

O Ceallaigh looked on the downgrade in Ireland and was only 6th on his first run over here in a point in December 2018. He did actually make the running that day although he didn't in Ireland. The market will speak volumes about his chances, but on his first start for over 400 days it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.

Sam Cavallaro's season is no doubt based around the 2m race on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and won't be good enough, whilst Asangy has trip and ground issues.

If The Dellercheckout was still 11/4 I would be putting him up, but 11/8 is too short in my view as he faces a couple of decent rivals. Monbeg Gold is certainly interesting, but again his price seems about right. Therefore at this stage Dieu Vivant is the bet. He was backed on course last time so was clearly fancied to go well and given he is only 7 he is open to progression still as well. The pointing form book gave him a rating of 123 for that run and The Dellercheckout's rating is 125. That suggests there isn't much between them and is over priced for me at 6/1 as I would have him around half that price.

Dieu Vivant 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

Seeing The Dellercheckout win was frustrating given I wanted to tip him up, but obviously it would have been pointless tipping him up when the prices came out and they went quickly anyway. I suspected he might drift back out, but it didn't really get to a backable price until close to the race where again it was too late to tip him up. At the end of the day I will not tip something up just because I think it will win regardless of price especially as BOG is so hard to get the night before now if have accounts that are allowed it anyway. I thought it was a really impressive performance because Immy never had to get serious with him and was value for a fair bit more than the winning margin. He is clearly a changed horse from the one that was with Paul Nicholls and the 16/1 for Cheltenham seems a fair price. After the race Immy mentioned that he will be entered for Cheltenham, but because he is 7 they might choose to wait another year with him. Given that was only his 4th start over fences that could be a sensible decision, but he stays and will handle any ground and if he did go this year I think he could run a big race.

Monbeg Gold made a mistake 2 out, but it made no difference to the result and he was beaten fair and square. It was a promising effort on his first start of the season though. O Ceallaigh was coming back after an even longer layoff and given how keen he was I thought he did really well to finish 3rd. As long as he doesn't bounce he could be interesting on his next start. The big disappointment of the race was Dieu Vivant who traveled into the race the really well, but found nothing when asked for an effort. It makes me think he is a bridle horse and the fact they went no pace last time allowed him to travel into the race for longer than he did here. He looks one to avoid after this. Llancillo Lord was running a nice race until unseating 4 out. Stamina was a big question mark so it is hard to know where he would have finished, but he could be capable of adding to his Fakenham win at some point this term.

The next race is tomorrow at Bangor.