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How do I calculate weighted average odds for input into Kelly


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Hi all. I use the Kelly formula on Pinnacle's site to calculate my stakes:

(BP - Q) / B

B = the Decimal odds -1
P = the probability of success
Q = the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p)

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/How-to-use-kelly-criterion-for-betting/2BT2LK6K2QWQ7QJ8

One¬†scenario that often happens with me placing bets on Pinnacle in lower level events is that I use up the maximum stake at a given odds and they duly change. I want to be able to then rerun Kelly to work out the additional amount I should stake at the new odds (and so on if I use up the maximum stake again). I figure that I need to work out the weighted average odds but my rudimentary maths fails me as I need to know what the stake is resulting from the second Kelly calculation in order to calculate the weighted average to input into said calculation. Could anyone give me some pointers on the maths or even better... let me know how you do it ūüôā¬†I figure I can't be the only one!!

Thanks in advance.

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  • 5 weeks later...

Just looking for something else, just noticed that nobody answered you.

I will not answer either, to be honest, because my poor English doesn't allow me to understand what exactly is your problem. 

Just remembered that many years ago I was interested in Kelly.

Pinnacle has very good and informative articles and would be excellent to read them all. They, like other successful bookies, don't care if you win or not following their advice, if there are enough customers.

About Kelly, first of all, is for those that have a strong heart. The jumps are huge in your bank if doesn't use half Kelly or more ...

On the other hand, all is based on how good you approximate the real probabilities, so Kelly is for very experienced players. Otherwise, you are finished in a few weeks.

Yes, Kelly is excellent if you are a professional in calculating probabilities because you will place high stakes when the probabilities are far better then other players think and will not play if there is no value.

I am sorry I did not answer your question but maybe you will give me another shot if rephrase the problem  :)

 

By the way, this might be an idea to add such a calculator within my tools.

 

 

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  • 1 year later...
On 1/19/2020 at 12:52 PM, giraldi said:

Just looking for something else, just noticed that nobody answered you.

I will not answer either, to be honest, because my poor English doesn't allow me to understand what exactly is your problem. 

Just remembered that many years ago I was interested in Kelly.

Pinnacle has very good and informative articles and would be excellent to read them all. They, like other successful bookies, don't care if you win or not following their advice, if there are enough customers.

About Kelly, first of all, is for those that have a strong heart. The jumps are huge in your bank if doesn't use half Kelly or more ...

On the other hand, all is based on how good you approximate the real probabilities, so Kelly is for very experienced players. Otherwise, you are finished in a few weeks.

Yes, Kelly is excellent if you are a professional in calculating probabilities because you will place high stakes when the probabilities are far better then other players think and will not play if there is no value.

I am sorry I did not answer your question but maybe you will give me another shot if rephrase the problem  :)

 

By the way, this might be an idea to add such a calculator within my tools.

 

 

Sorry giraldi - I never got a notification for this. Thanks for trying to answer! In the end I found another Pinnacle article which gave me the solution...

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