Do you rely on recent forms,trends and streaks to make your bets?

[Rey86]

back in the day i used to rely exclusively on streaks and trends

i made some profits occasionally and i always got surprised when lossing a bet

and that happen a lot

 

i found this article claiming that it is bad idea to bet based on recent results

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/08/team-form-recency-bias-and-regression-to-the-mean/

 

what do you guys think? 

[giraldi]

I think that, as a general rule, is a bad idea to bet just based on everybody knows. I am pretty sure that the recent results are very well known and accessible.

Of course, if the form or trend are very good, the team has great probability to win but will not get a correct price for sure

On the other hand, if not check the recent results, what else to check? Ok, will check the players, the field, ...etc. but how will put this in numbers? Can somebody tell me how will affect the performance if 2 important players are missing? will have 15% less chances to win, maybe 20%? The odds have value? I would calculate how the team performed without those palyers...in the recent games.

Finally, the recent results are the best  we have to start with  and to have a starting number (percent). If we are not able to find more and to adjust those percents in a direction or another the best option is to drop the game and to look for something else.