Soccerbase stats

[Bang on]

Hi all,

Thought I would start a thread to check out what seems a logical FOOTBALL SELECTION method. It uses the 'Soccerbase' website and works as follows.

1. Note league positions of the teams playing each other and calculate the difference. ( ie. Sheff Utd 10th V Liverpool 1st = Liverpool +9)

2. We are ONLY INTERESTED in teams that are at least 10 places higher (England) or 6 places higher (Scotland)

3. We then have a shortlist of matches which we check the 'Hot' (or not) indicator. We are ONLY INTERESTED in teams that are much hotter than their opponents.

.......

This weekends selections (10) are,

Man City (3-10) .... WON 3-1

Leicester (8-15) ... WON 5-0

N.Forest (9-4) ...play Fri night. ... WON 3-2

Ipswich (8-13) ... WON 4-1

Peterborough (4-7) ... WON 3-2

Wycombe (6-4) ... WON 3-0

Northampton (5-4) ... 2-2 draw

Dag + Red (3-4) ... 0-0 draw

Celtic (2-5) ... 1-1 draw

Inv C.T. (7-10) ... lost 3-1

Edited September 30, 2019 by Bang on
scores added

[harry_rag]

Good luck, will be interested to see how this unfurls but my natural gut reaction is that it will be loss making (assuming you stick with it long enough to generate a worthwhile sample of, say, 200 matches). Basically you're backing teams where the league table and a simplistic form indicator suggest an obviously superior team. Why would the prices on these teams offer value when they are likely to appeal to a lot of punters as "obvious" selections. Would love to be proved wrong though.

Is "much hotter than their opponents" going to be an objective measure or subjective opinion? Whilst City are unsurprisingly in the hot zone, are they "much hotter" than Everton? I think you need to pre-define the criteria for this for the trial to be valid.