Soccerbase stats

[Bang on]

Hi all,

Thought I would start a thread to check out what seems a logical FOOTBALL SELECTION method. It uses the 'Soccerbase' website and works as follows.

1. Note league positions of the teams playing each other and calculate the difference. ( ie. Sheff Utd 10th V Liverpool 1st = Liverpool +9)

2. We are ONLY INTERESTED in teams that are at least 10 places higher (England) or 6 places higher (Scotland)

3. We then have a shortlist of matches which we check the 'Hot' (or not) indicator. We are ONLY INTERESTED in teams that are much hotter than their opponents.

.......

This weekends selections (10) are,

Man City (3-10) .... WON 3-1

Leicester (8-15) ... WON 5-0

N.Forest (9-4) ...play Fri night. ... WON 3-2

Ipswich (8-13) ... WON 4-1

Peterborough (4-7) ... WON 3-2

Wycombe (6-4) ... WON 3-0

Northampton (5-4) ... 2-2 draw

Dag + Red (3-4) ... 0-0 draw

Celtic (2-5) ... 1-1 draw

Inv C.T. (7-10) ... lost 3-1

Edited September 30, 2019 by Bang on
scores added

[harry_rag]

Good luck, will be interested to see how this unfurls but my natural gut reaction is that it will be loss making (assuming you stick with it long enough to generate a worthwhile sample of, say, 200 matches). Basically you're backing teams where the league table and a simplistic form indicator suggest an obviously superior team. Why would the prices on these teams offer value when they are likely to appeal to a lot of punters as "obvious" selections. Would love to be proved wrong though.

Is "much hotter than their opponents" going to be an objective measure or subjective opinion? Whilst City are unsurprisingly in the hot zone, are they "much hotter" than Everton? I think you need to pre-define the criteria for this for the trial to be valid.

[froment]

I share scepticism of Harry Rag above, but I'm surprised to see odds in 3 out of 10 matches are above evens, didn't expect it in matches where one team has that clear difference in stats, I don't get it. This might work with additional odds screening, I'd say.

[Bang on]

Thanks both,

I was looking at it from exactly that viewpoint froment . I too was surprised at 'some'  of the odds. I am not backing every selection as a single, rather trying to assess what are the minimum odds for success as a cut off point.

I generally do doubles and trebles for football and this 'shortlist' hopefully points me in the right direction.

Forgot to add ... there were quite a few more matches with sufficient league position difference... but NOT a Hot v Not approval. This in my opinion shows that there 'could' be some merit in the process. 

Edited September 28, 2019 by Bang on

[keef75]

@Bang on - it's out of date now but has a fair bit of historical data that might be of use to you - http://rdata.uk/index.php?view=fbr - scroll down to 'Most Recent' table and click on the 'HomeWin10' link, which I just created to kind of match what you're doing here, I think.  Click on the blue 'All Results' button to view all the matches.  Click the 'Filters' button to see how the matches have been selected.  You can see the league positions (in brackets next to the team names) in the results along with the win/loss, running bank etc.  Give me a shout if you need any more help with it.

[Bang on]

Thanks @keef75

[giraldi]

I hope we all agree that the value can be found in very small odds but, as in real life, to study the small things you need fine tools and a lot of patience, otherwise you destroy them. It is best to avoid small odds, in my opinion. Is best to avoid very "crowded places" as well. No value where are too many players.
My first impression, as did my colleagues above, was that such a strategy simply applied cannot be mathematically winning.
 

I checked all the matches in September considering the difference at least 10 places for the league positions, see picture no.1.

157 out of 1635 met the condition and, as expected the results would have been not extraordinary as you can see in picture no.2

 

Now, lets-s see what if will consider the places in the home table for home teams and in the away table for the away teams. We have some improvements already. Almost 7% profit for home win. It makes sense because we filtered teams with a good play at home vs teams with a bad play away (and too many players consider only overall teams performance)

See pictures no.3 and no.4

 

 

Now, let-s go a little bit further and check for  home teams placed between 1-5, so they are very strong at home, and the odds over 2.00 (the potential has not been seen yet by the majority of the payers). 

See pictures no.5 and no.6

 

The results are much better. See picture no 7.

 

Of course, the results are based on aveage odds but I am sure you got the idea. Don-t play what another 99% play becasue it-s not possible to have 99% of players winners on long term.

 

Finally,

of course, I will not be a hypocrite and to say that I did not want to show off the possibilities of my program. 

 

Edited September 29, 2019 by giraldi

[Bang on]

Nothing for midweek, there were a couple of qualifiers (league pos diff), but the Hot/Cold indicator ruled them out.

[Bang on]

A small LSP last week but minimal.

I have decided to add further filters etc. - min odds 1-2 (all will use 365 as they are available quite early), plus a further filter (for now) with a 'strength indicator' to help show the potentially stronger selections.

England (18pts staked)

Preston (8-13) 3pts WON

Hull (15-8) 2pts lost

N.Forest (15-8) 1pt WON

Bristol City (Ev) 3pts WON

Blackpool (5-6) 1pt

Colchester (10-11) 2pts WON

Cheltenham (2-1) 2pts draw

Yeovil (8-5) 3pts lost

Harrogate (17-20) 1pt WON

Scotland (12pts staked)

Aberdeen (21-20) 2pts draw

Motherwell (4-5) 2pts WON

Dundee Utd (8-15) 2pts *** Fri Night** lost

Clyde (5-6) 3pts lost

East Fife (4-7) 3pts draw

-----

 

Edited October 7, 2019 by Bang on
results

[Bang on]

Very quiet this weekend with the internationals taking place, just 2 qualifiers.

Bradford (5-6) 2pts ... WON

Eastleigh (17-20) 1pt ... draw

Edited October 12, 2019 by Bang on
results