Racing Chat - Thursday Aug 29th

[BillyHills]

7 meetings!

Nap: 240 Car : Pendleton 10/3 betvic
Nb: 140 Car: Ninjago 13/8 Hills
Mover: 410 Car : Royal Shaheen 10/3 bet365

 

[Darran]

The 5.05 at Fontwell is a weak contest and at a double figure price it is worth taking another chance on Ballina Lady. Those with good memories will remember I put her up at Stratford back in June when I wrote this

 

A brief message for a couple worth backing tomorrow. Ballina Lady runs in the 2nd and although it was only a weak maiden she won last month they never saw which way she went. That was over 3m, but the pace she has and based on her previous pointing runs the drop down to 2m should not be an issue. The soft ground is a slight concern, but clearly connections aren't worried and even allowing for the fact she is out of the weights in this she still looks well handicapped. That win last time was the first time Lilly had ridden her and she is back on here and hopefully she can make all.

 

I was right to be worried about the soft ground that day as she ended up dropping out tamely. She then ran well until not staying 3m at Southwell the week after. This is a 0-100 but in practice it is a 0-89 as that is what the top weight's rating is (although the 4yo Lord De La Mine is rated 95). That means she gets to run off 69 and then Lilly takes off another 7 so is basically running off 62. Quick ground round here could be ideal for her and as I say at the price in a race this bad it is well worth taking a chance e/w with her.

 

Out of the 8 rivals 3 have no obvious chance whatsoever so we basically have a 6 runner race. Mr Sawyer is a pointer/hunter chaser as well and it made little sense to me why he has backed at Stratford last week and he got nowhere near to winning. He has only run well once in 8 hunter chases and that was when he was 2nd at Stratford in 2016. The  other 7 were all pretty poor efforts and it's hard to see why first time cheekpieces is suddenly going to spark the improvement needed to look like winning under rules. Lord De La Mine is only 4 so might improve and ran OK up to a point at Bangor last week in a better race than this, but a mark of 95 seems high enough on what he has done so far. His trainer has yet to have a runner here but sends two tonight. Primogeniture has yet to run in a class 5 over fences, but didn't win one over hurdles. He never really got close to winning one although he has place claims in a race like this. Mountain Of Angels is probably the biggest danger for me as on his 2nd at Stratford last year and his win at Southwell this year he can win this. The doubt is he has run two stinkers on his other 2 starts since coming back under rules after a couple of runs pointing. He does like to front run though and he could find it hard keeping tabs on Ballina Lady.

 

Diligent is a very short priced favourite and looks a terrible price. He could win and did run well enough in a weak class 4 here last week and he was backed into favouritism as well, but he hardly looks a horse you would want to back at 11/10 given his profile. 

 

So all in all Ballina Lady looks well worth a punt at 14/1 e/w in a bad race where they all have doubts over them.