100 Value Bets

[harry_rag]

A fairly "Ronseal" title for this thread. Simple proposition with a simple aim (if I post 100 bets that I am confident are value will the results bear that out)?

Been doing this for years and have areas that I tend to specialise in but have been looking back over this year's results and having a bit of a Dean Friedman moment (concluding that I'm not as smart as I like to think I am). It would probably be a good idea for me to place less bets, and spend more time on researching them. Those that make it into this thread will be ones where I have enough time to both do the research and post the selection. Hitting the 100 takes as long as it takes.

No bank as such though I'll set a stop loss of -500 points. Stakes will vary depending on odds and perceived value. First bets to follow shortly (nothing will be posted with less than 30 minutes notice).

[harry_rag]

Opening salvo all come in tonight's Leeds v Castleford game and all with 365. Time won't always permit the positing of any rationale but it will always be along similar lines.

Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10

Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2

Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2

Spread prices suggest Eden should be odds on to score a try (you can sell his try minutes at 35 which I'd equate to around 4/5). He is indeed odds on with every other firm. He's scored in 7 out of 14 Superleague starts this season, ten tries in total including a brace on 3 occasions. Hard to see that he should be more than 4/1 for 2 or more and is shorter than that elsewhere.

Similar story with Aston who would merit a second look at anything above 9/4 and still be tempting at the next best 3/1 with Lads/Coral. He's scored in 3 out of 4 Superleague games this season and in last weekend's Challenge Cup game.