Looking for the low scoring games

[duckmaster]

Reasonably simple premise here

football-data.co.uk have historical data for all games in most major leagues, but interestingly they also show the odds before kick off for these games.

I deleted all the games with at least one goal leaving me with all games that finished 0-0. I then calculated the mode, median and mean averages for all the odds on home win, away win and draw, and from those numbers calculated a mean average of each. Finally I took those three numbers and calculated their mean average (all this is to get the average deviation as low as possible). This gave me:

Home 2.26

Draw 3.47

Away 3.35

 

So we're going to look for games that are as close to those odds as possible. I'll take 3 (league games only):

Tondela v Rio Av
H 2.25
D 3.20
A 3.30

San Marcos Arica v Cobresal
H 2.38
D 3.10
A 2.70

Udinese v Sampdoria
H 2.20
D 3.40
A 3.25

Odds on <0.5 goals are 8, 9 and 9, combined for 648.00

Odds on <1.5 goals are 3, 3.5, 3.5, combined 36.75

Odds on <2.5 goals are 1.67, 1.91, 1.91 combined 6.09

 

2p on <0.5 goals

15p on <1.5 goals

83p on <2.5

total stake £1

 

Profit if all 0-0 = £23.52

if all <1.5 = £10.54

if all <2.5 = £4.88

 

Starting with a tenner and will do one a day!

[Sir Puntalot]

Good luck @duckmaster