Natural strategy

[giraldi]

For the next season one of the few strategies will try is a strategy that I called “Natural strategy”. 

What it is about:

Will try to find under evaluated or over evaluated teams at some point. This will lead to a value bet (back or lay) – what I consider being the “natural strategy”.

We all know how the odds are calculated and how the bookies win no matter the outcome. If want to have profit on long period it is very clear that other players must lose money on the same period. Maybe you are not agreeing with me, bookies are on the good guy’s side in this story but this is out of subject here.

There are many ways to try to find over/under evaluated teams. Were invented a lot of systems that lead to value bet..etc.

I observed many years the teams behaviors home/away. The large majority of teams are “neutral ” meaning that they play relatively the same way home/away.  On the other hand there are teams that because of the player’s profile, manager style…etc have a very big differences between home play and away play.  That leads for example to completely unbalanced results when talk about points taken home/away.  Will give examples next days.

There are teams on the middle  of the table but when you check closely you see that 70% of the points came from away games. On the same way you might see a team where 100% of points  came from home games (even against top teams) but 0 points from away games. Etc... In the first case is very possible to have a good bet if the team plays away next round.  In the second case may be interesting to check the home odds closely. The value may exist even in 1.10 by the way.

If you find such teams and make a little bit more researches it is extremely probably that you find a value there. Of course, it is absolutely mandatory to check more than tables. If possible check injuries, important missing players…etc. If there are some doubts it is no bet.

Seems to be very simple but I assure you that is not and need a lot of patience.

 Will return next days with a few examples.

[real55555]

Agree with you on your concept of looking for value bets. A team on a 5 game winning streak will definitely have a shorter odds on their 6th game even if their team and manager remain the same. That is when we bet on the other team if this concept holds true.