can we really gain an edge in soccer betting?

[real55555]

So the question is, can we punters ever get an edge on sports betting. I know we cannot gain any edge in casino betting because the edge is fixed in favour of the casino.

Through the years, I've tried and experimented about 20-30 systems in soccer/basketball betting and after looking at the results, the best i can get is about 55-60% win rate. Recently I've looked at the saved excel sheets which i did my trials, and start wondering, yes 55-60% win rate is an edge but an edge that will be chipped away by the odds offered by bookmakers. So say after 100 matches, if i win 55-60 of them at odds of 1.90, I'll just win 49.5-54 units only, in which if there are two matches that swing the other way, I'll be making a loss. 

Now I'm thinking maybe in-play betting has better value, but i'm not entirely sure.

Please offer your comments. Thanks.

[moggis]

Hi,

First of all I suggest you read the article ,Mugs and Millionaires.

It should confirm that gaining an edge in soccer betting (at least ) really is tough. And one of the reasons it’s tough is because companies like Star Lizard are helping to suck out much of the all important value.

But finding value is only part of the problem. Even if you are one of the few who can find it you still have to deal with the psychology.

Just because most of your selections are value wont prevent you going on a long losing run. And during that run you will begin to doubt thst your selections were in fact value . You will lose confidence . And without confidence that you’re betting value you won’t make much money .

Thus you need a technical edge and a psychological edge. Something very few people will ever have.

Personally I think thst betting on 90 minute soccer msrkets nowadays purely to make money is largely futile .

However most people who bet on soccer aren’t doing it to make money . They’re  doing it either because they like betting and they like football and/or because it’s so hard thst to be one of the very few who can do it ,if they ever can,makes them feel good.

 

Thats the bad news.

The good news is that the answer to your question is YES.

In fact not only can you get an edge in sports betting it’s not at all hard to get an edge.

However you need to only ever bet on long term msrkets.

They are far easier to beat and even better than thst the overwhelming majority of gamblers hardly touch them and never will.

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by moggis