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Mexico > Ascenso MX > Clausura 2018

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Results:

Atlante 1 - 0 Tampico Madero

-8 units

Murcielagos 1 - 1 Alebrijes Oaxaca

-3 units

Cafetaleros 2 - 0 Leones Negros = 2 goals

-6 units

Cafetaleros 2 - 0 Leones Negros

+2.19 units

Day Result: -14.81 units

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Santos Laguna vs Monterrey
2018, March 12,  02:00 hrs (CET Time)
Liga MX

Santos Laguna
Before this round, the leader of Liga MX, with a good form, three victories in five matches, alive in Copa MX, the team has provided good sensations in overall. Considering Liga MX the team has only two defeats in 10 matches, with six victories. With a great performance at home, with four victories in five matches, remaining unbeaten there, only against Tijuana the team was unable to score. Their defense has perform at a great level, with three clean sheets in those five matches.

The team will be without Cris Martines and Liga MX scoring leader Djaniny, which was injured and will have some weeks out, but the team is not without scoring players, as Furch will be again on the attack, and the team want to show they are not dependent of Djaniny.

Monterrey
With two consecutives matches without victory, the team was kickoff of Copa MX by Queretaro in penalties. Considering only Liga MX the team has only won once in last five matches with three defeats, two of them away and the last weekend 1-3 to Puebla at home, consider by the media de surprise of the season, it seems the media has not observed Puebla this season.

Monterrey at away has had a better performance recently than at home, with three victories in the last five matches. As in home last five had deliver only one victory, against Leon, and three draws with two defeats.  The team has showed in some matches good defending, that has allowed them to get some victories, but on other matches, the team is just lost at away, as showed against Toluca and Necaxa. For this match it is yet to see how they will perform, but will like to recover from Copa MX elimination.

Monterrey have offensive players with which to generate scoring chances, as Aviles Hurtado, Rogelio Funes More, Carlos Sanche, their only negative point is that they tend to miss penalties. Coach Mohamed will field an alternative team, as he will be without Jonathan Gonzalez, Jose Maria Basanta, Leonel Vagioni and Jonathan Urretaviscaya, still the team will remain with offensive power as stated before.

Prediction
I expect a match where Santos Laguna should dominate, and attractive match where both teams will enjoy scoring chances, still Monterrey will focus more on defending. Both teams are looking to qualify to the playoffs, now that Monterrey was kick out of Copa MX, the team will put more emphasis on Liga MX, meanwhile Santos Laguna continues in Copa MX which provides them with a boost for this match. Both posses offensive elements that will deliver a very attractive match. From last ten matches, seven has been over 2.5 goals, when playing at Corona Stadium,  five out of five have been over 2.5 goals.  I will back up the trend of goals in this match as I for see the value of this match in the over in that market.

Over 2.5 with  8 units @ 1.84 with 5Dimes

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Dorados vs Celaya
2018, March 18, 05:00 hrs (CET Time)
Ascenso MX

Dorados
In second place of Ascenso MX, with only one point behind leader Mineros Zacatecas, the team has the best defense of the tournament, with only 8 goals allowed in 12 matches, more fond of defending at away than at home. The team performance is also better away than at home, with four victories against there at home. Still a good performance that have them at the top of the league, looking to get to the first position.

Their recent results go against the latter, as their away match was a defeat against Atletico Zacatepec by a lone goal, meanwhile at home the team has three matches winning, after the opener opening this season with a streak of two consecutive defeats, which if considering Copa MX goes to four matches at home losing, still the have worked hard and change things around and now they have a good recent form at home. Which they will be pleased to come back to ace this match.

Previous to last defeat, the team had accumulated six matches without losing in Liga de Ascenso, therefore that defeat come as a reminder to keep the focus.

Celaya
At away Celaya has just one victory this year in Ascenso MX, and one in Copa MX, where the team was kickoff two weeks ago by losing 4-1 to Leon and being eliminated, so now with only Ascenso MX to focus went home and make it count as they won 2-0 to Ascenso MX leader Mineros Zacatecas to provide them with a good boost for the competition. The team climb to fifth position and nows they need to continue focus on that as they are just 3 points above the 11th place.

In Ascenso MX, Celaya has a great performance at home, where they have won four out of six matches, still at away the team has just one victory in six matches, still remarks that they obtained that victory in their current streak of three matches without victory at away, a great improvement from four defeats in their previous five matches.

Prediction
I expect a tight match, both teams have improved and are looking to continue on that trend, still I sense Dorados returning home will be a good point for them to perform well and claim a good result..

For this match the asian handicap for Dorados is where the value resides as in case of Draw we cover half stake, Celaya will put a good stand as they seems to be finding their way at away, still I consider Dorados at home will be to strong for them.

Dorados -0.25 AH with 7 units @ 2.03 at 188Bet
Under 2.5 with 3 units @ 1.76 at BetCity

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Result:

Dorados 1 - 2 Celaya

-7 units

Dorados 1 - 2 Celaya = 3 goals

-3 units

Day Result: -10 units

Celaya take the early lead, and despite playing with 10 players since minute 24, was able to win the match, double the lead before half time and just allowed one goal in the second half from Dorados.

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Atletico San Luis vs Dorados
2018, March 24, 03:00 hrs (CET Time)
Ascenso MX

Atletico San Luis
After the initial struggle of the season, the team have found their pace and now carries a streak of seven unbeaten matches, with six wins. Either at home or away the team has been able to get points and either against competition leader Mineros Zacatecas or weak sides as Venados, the good form of the team could have their reward soon, as they are two points out of qualification spots and only six points in play.

The team could get one of the last places for playoff qualification, therefore this match has and added importance as being the last one at home in regular season. The team has perform better at away with four victories in seven matches, than at home where they have only one victory in six matches, therefore the team struggles at home, but is where they had encounter the stronger opposition, meanwhile on away it has been a weaker one, except last match where they beat league leaders Mineros Zacatecas by 1-2.

Dorados
After an unbeaten month of February in Ascenso MX, the team have lost the last two matches either at home or away, something that should be consider alarming, but has been able to hold to the second position of the table and are almost in playoffs, with four points cushion with only six points in play the team could secure qualification this round even if they lost this match, they would depend from other teams, and even then the last match they would encounter it at home against Correcaminos, so they have their qualification in their hands.

Dorados has had a fair performance either at home than at away, if something can be highlight is their defense as they have only allowed 10 goals in 13 matches, being the best defence, precisely the features that have seem lacking in their last matches, where they have allowed goals and have not been able to score them.

Match
An intense match, as Atletico San Luis good form has provide them with opportunities to reach playoffs, Dorados could had their qualification secure, but where unable to get at least a point in last two matches, and I consider they will forget about experiments and revert to their proven formula, therefore strong defending from both teams.

Prediction
A rather level match, despite the difference in the standings is brought to level due to both teams recent form, with that in mind considering the offered asian handicap, I sense the home side carry the advantage and if they do not get points, playoffs would be very hard to reach.

Atletico San Luis -0.25 AH with 6 units @ 1.93 at Unibet

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Cafetaleros Tapachula vs Juarez
2018, March 24, 03:30 hrs (CET Time)
Ascenso MX

Cafetaleros Tapachula

The team is within the positions of playoffs, but it has to be attentive, since it could be left out in these two rounds that are left, the team has had a good offensive, managing to score goals, nevertheless it depends on the defense, that when it fails the goals of the forwards may not be enough. So it has been alternating results, between victories and defeats.

It does not stand out as a visitor or as a local, where it has had a similar performance. At home he has the same number of defeats, victories and draws. It is at home where he has not been able to score as he should, as he has only 8 goals in 6 matches, which pales before 15 goals in seven away matches. The defense has allowed almost as many goals, with 7 home and 13 visitors. The team will seek to improve those numbers in this game to reach the playoffs.

Juarez
It is the team that has tied the most this season with 6 draws in 13 games, still has options to qualify for the playoffs, mathematically, but being 5 points behind, with 6 to play the prospect looks complicated, so the team is already thinking about the next season, the coach Fuentes Razo was fired and interim Campos Alejandre will be on the coach position for the meanwhile.

The advantage is that the team is freed from the pressure of an unlikely classification and will rather see the players eager to demonstrate to the institution to ensure a place for the next season, so the team will be motivated in a certain way . However, the recent form, with four games without winning, does not help in that aspect. On the other hand they have only one victory in the last 11 games, just a visitor victory against Tampico Madero.

Prediction
Cafetaleros will look for the points to have a better playoff opportunity for the last round, however Juarez will not make it easy, although they no longer thinks about this tournament, the players know that they have to show to be able to get accommodation for the next tournament.

It will be an interesting game, with both teams looking for victory, although I consider that Cafetaleros has more arguments and is more motivated than Juarez, so I go with the local Asian advantage. Together with over as the offensive power of Cafetaleros, despite Juarez only having 2 out of 8 last matches with over 2.5 goals.

Cafetaleros -0.25 AH with 6 units @ 2.08 at Unibet
Over 2.5 goals with 3 units @ 2.37 at 1xBet

 

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Murcielagos vs Tampico Madero
2018, March 24, 05:00 hrs (CET Time)
Ascenso MX

Tampico Madero faces this game in an interesting situation, because it is one point below the posts of playoffs, and goes to a visiting game in an advantageous situation, because for Murcielagos there is no tomorrow, if they do not get the three points of this game would be saying goodbye to the league of Ascent MX, and despite obtaining a win, depends on what Cimarrones Sonora does in their game against Atlante, so the pressure is maximum.

Murciélagos did it last week, winning when they needed to stay alive before visiting Juarez, and it was just Tampico Madero who did the favor by beating Cimarrones for the minimum. What has been the bad step of Cimarrones that has Murcielagos still with opportunities, at least mathematics, in the struggle not to descend.

Additionally to consider Murciélagos has been better local than visitor, which is a point in his favor in this match, by Tampico Madero counterparty has hardly a visitor victory, but has three draws, which has given him points to be in the fight for qualifying a league.

In my opinion this will be the end of the road for Murciélagos, has a good performance at home, but Tampico Madero is a good team to visit and the pressure is totally in the room that knows that every minute that passes without having goals and being ahead on the scoreboard, it is a minute more than the descent becomes real and I consider that at the end of this match it will be a reality. Tampico Madero's conservative style of play should prevail and achieve at least one point in this game.

Tampico Madero 0 AH with 8 units @ 2.05  at BetCity

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Results:

Atletico San Luis 3 - 1 Dorados

+ 5.58 units

Cafetaleros 1 - 0 Juarez

+ 6.48 units

Cafetaleros 1 - 0 Juarez = 1 Goal

-3 units

Murcielagos 1 - 0 Tampico Madero

-8 units

Day Result: + 1.06 units

 

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Celaya vs Leones Negros

2018, March 25, 03:00 hrs (CET Time)

Ascenso MX

Celaya

The team has been irregular this season, still on the last five matches the team has only lost once, on Copa MX, beyond that, the team has six matches unbeaten in Ascenso MX, which has the team in playoffs positions right now. The improvement the team have showed has been reflected in their last two matches, home victory against ascenso MX leader  Mineros and away victory against second placed Dorados. 

Here the team is placed with a very good opportunity to secure qualification to playoffs, as the team would reach 24, with the 7th places has 20 points and only 3 left to play.  Celaya has the advantage in this round to play after the rest of the teams, therefore in the worst case they lost they will remain 1 point above the 20 points Atlante has, and will depende on the result in their last match against Alebrijes Oaxaca.

Celaya has a good home performance, with four victories in six matches, and last season the team finish unbeaten at home, therefore the team is strong home, above all, scoring at least 2 goals in most of them.

Leones Negros

The team is on playoffs positions, and will end this round in them,  their home performance has been the key for the team to be on this position, and afortunately for them, they will close at home, still will be a high voltage match against an Atletico San Luis that is in great form and considering their positions on the table, a possible place for playoffs will be at stake there. 

At home the team has five consecutive victories, showing really good features, scoring goals and having a good defending, if only they could do the same at away, where with only one victory the team has left many points, but overall showed poor defending, being just the second worst defensive away.

Leones Negros needs to improve their away performance, and the defense is where it should begin, as if they do not, even if they get to playoffs, they will struggle in a two legged series.

Match

An very cautious match is expected, both teams knows what is at stake and I sense they will put first defense than anything else, still Celaya knows their best shoot is this, therefore I see them more immerse in this match and with more motivation backed up by their good home form and 

Prediction

Either team that gets the win will secure their place in playoffs and will face the last round with the assurance of their place in playoffs, in case of draw the last round will be fundamental to determine this.  For this match the good form of Celaya home is the deciding factor, Leones Negros at away is yet to find their pace and I doubt they will do it in this match. 

Celaya with 6 units @ 1.83 at Betway

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Tampico Madero vs Cafetaleros Tapachula

2018, April 01, 04:00 hrs (CET Time)

Ascenso MX

Tampico Madero
The team has been irregular lately with the only constant that in their match there has been only one goal, whenever at favor or against, with 1 victory and three defeats, the team has showed solid defending and thanks to their good performance at the beginning of the season arrives to this match with opportunities to qualify to playoffs, and for that they depend on themselves but they would need to win this match by more than a goal in order to tie with points and have better goal difference than that of Cafetaleros, as if they won by one goal then they would also tie in goal difference and would depend on other results and criteria.

With that in mind, Tampico will take advantage of playing at home where they have won four out of seven matches, it is their away performance with only one victory that have them in this situation and not up on the table, still there they have the best defense in the tournament with only 3 goals allowed, but will encounter this match at home where they have a rather average defense.

Cafetaleros Tapachula
For this last round the team is on playoffs positions, and the team could end up as second place of fall out of contention, therefore the team needs to continue with its good form that have see them won their last three matches and climb to fifth. With their current points, the team would secure qualification to next stage with a draw, therefore they could take advantage of the need of Tampico Madero to counterattack in the open spaces.

In last five the team have won four, lost their defeat 1-3 to Toluca in Copa MX, with three consecutive victories in Ascenso MX, with two from last four being under 2. 5 goals matches, the team has improved in defense, which was their long standing area, but the opposition they have encounter has been mixed, so take that with a grain of salt.

The team has very similar performances at home than at away, with three victories in seven matches. Showing better defending at home than ata away, where they are one of the teams that most goals allowed but also the team that more goals scored there.

Prediction

A rather odd match, Tampico Madero needs a goal and has the patience, still their defense is not holding and their attack seems gone, I sense they might counterattack, but as time proceed Cafetaleros would have the spaces and although their defense is weak, they have improve and the have offensive power to take advantage of them. A match that can have dynamics moments and some dull ones.

In a nutshell, there is not tomorrow for both teams, Cafetaleros has a better situation, but is very thin and they have not showed what is in regards to defence to relay on it for this match, but they have to goal power to pose a strong opposition, Tampico Madero are patient, but as match gets on and they do not have the advantage then expect open spaces and more scoring chances from both teams. Therefore I see the value on the over 2. 5 goals market.

Over 2.5 goals with 6 units @ 2.41 at 1xBet

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Result:

Tampico Madero 1 - 0 Cafetaleros Tapachula

-6 units

Tampico madero scored early at '15 minute, and despite the need of both teams, and important scoring chances the score did not move. Despite the defeat Cafetaleros Tapachula will be on playoffs, meanwhile the results in the other matches does not favor Tampico Madero and will be out of contention after the last round match between Leones Negros and San Luis.

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