Festival Fever

[arsenalfh]

Royal Ascot - Day 1

Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets.

Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed efforts at York behind Postponed where he was slightly hampered and also at Woodbine. He's still relatively lightly raced and looks a good each way bet at the prices with the rest of the field looking distinctly ordinary.

The Coventry looks a tough race to solve and I have no strong opinion. Similarly in the King's Stand I won't have a bet as I have 2 ante post bets running in Signs Of Blessing and Cotai Glory. The St. James's Palace Stakes sees an interesting match up between the 2000 Guineas first and second. Barney Roy didn't seem to take with Newmarket that day struggling with the undulations and should be more at home here at Ascot. He is also lightly raced and is open to more improvement than Churchill. That being said the Ballydoyle raider is tough horse that always seems to find more when required and is a deservedly short priced favourite. However with little other competition to these two I can't resist an each way bet on Barney Roy who looks good value to finish in the first 3.

It's hard not to love big field Ascot handicaps and the Ascot Stakes looks an intriguing contest with the top jumps trainers switching codes to have a shot at this big prize. Several look like they have chances but Thomas Hobson looks the most likely winner here for me and is a solid bet at the prices. Irish horses have an outstanding record in British flat handicaps over a mile or further winning 47 times to the 27 expected when you calculate their chance of winning using Betfair SP since 2012.

Finally we finish with the Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum distance. From what I have seen from Wesley Ward's 2 year olds over here they are all extremely quick but don't stay further than the 5f trip. We saw Lady Aurelia struggle to hold on over 6f in France before getting beaten in the Cheveley Park and like her Acapulco also look all speed as a 2 year old. This is actually backed up in the data albeit over a small sample as Ward doesn't have a single 2 year old winner in Britain over 6f with 1.57 expected. However with 2 year olds in 5f sprints he has a spectacular record with 8 actual wins against 4.3 expected. Although Coolmore's expensive purchase Declarationofpeace has attracted support today, he might just find the Ward 2 year olds a little too precocious and with the latter's record I'll be backing both of his.

2.30 - Mutakayyef 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)

4.20 - Barney Roy 1pt e/w @ 5/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)

5.00 - Thomas Hobson 2pts e/w @ 6/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)

5.35 - Nootka Sound 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair

5.35 - Elizabeth Darcy 4pts @ 11/1 Betfair

[Sir Puntalot]

4 minutes ago, arsenalfh said:

Royal Ascot - Day 1

Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets.

Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed efforts at York behind Postponed where he was slightly hampered and also at Woodbine. He's still relatively lightly raced and looks a good each way bet at the prices with the rest of the field looking distinctly ordinary.

The Coventry looks a tough race to solve and I have no strong opinion. Similarly in the King's Stand I won't have a bet as I have 2 ante post bets running in Signs Of Blessing and Cotai Glory. The St. James's Palace Stakes sees an interesting match up between the 2000 Guineas first and second. Barney Roy didn't seem to take with Newmarket that day struggling with the undulations and should be more at home here at Ascot. He is also lightly raced and is open to more improvement than Churchill. That being said the Ballydoyle raider is tough horse that always seems to find more when required and is a deservedly short priced favourite. However with little other competition to these two I can't resist an each way bet on Barney Roy who looks good value to finish in the first 3.

It's hard not to love big field Ascot handicaps and the Ascot Stakes looks an intriguing contest with the top jumps trainers switching codes to have a shot at this big prize. Several look like they have chances but Thomas Hobson looks the most likely winner here for me and is a solid bet at the prices. Irish horses have an outstanding record in British flat handicaps over a mile or further winning 47 times to the 27 expected when you calculate their chance of winning using Betfair SP since 2012.

Finally we finish with the Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum distance. From what I have seen from Wesley Ward's 2 year olds over here they are all extremely quick but don't stay further than the 5f trip. We saw Lady Aurelia struggle to hold on over 6f in France before getting beaten in the Cheveley Park and like her Acapulco also look all speed as a 2 year old. This is actually backed up in the data albeit over a small sample as Ward doesn't have a single 2 year old winner in Britain over 6f with 1.57 expected. However with 2 year olds in 5f sprints he has a spectacular record with 8 actual wins against 4.3 expected. Although Coolmore's expensive purchase Declarationofpeace has attracted support today, he might just find the Ward 2 year olds a little too precocious and with the latter's record I'll be backing both of his.

2.30 - Mutakayyef 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)

4.20 - Barney Roy 1pt e/w @ 5/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)

5.00 - Thomas Hobson 2pts e/w @ 6/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)

5.35 - Nootka Sound 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair

5.35 - Elizabeth Darcy 4pts @ 11/1 Betfair

Great post.