Doing doubles with value bets

[mick bones]

This should be a simple maths question on probabilities so just checking that I have this right before I go down the wrong road.  I have never been a fan of doubles till I sat and looked at results of my approx 10,000 singles bets

With average profit of 30% I'm doing better than I expected when starting almost 1yr ago.  Problem is I am running out of options to get any sort of money on as have lost most accounts.  I only do £5 or £10 bets ... but I do a lot of them as you can see and I record everything.

I have noticed that some bookies will allow me do doubles for up to £5 but singles are limited to less than £1. 

So if you have a proven method of finding value bets ( and I believe I have that, with avg odds of 5.0 ) then should 2 of these bets in a double produce profits as follows

Bet A , avg value of 30%

Bet B, avg value of 30%

So with doubles avg profit after 10,000 bets would be   1.3 * 1.3  = 1.69  ie 69% profit?    For £1 bet, avg win of first leg = £1.30 and this goes on 2nd leg to compound the % profit .

 

I can probably get the answer by modifying my spread sheet to pick 10,000 random doubles and check results but as my first guess is you just compound the % profit then I get a 69% profit .. which I like the sound of.

I understand why bookies like doubles because when you have two -% negative value bets the a double just compounds the % loss long term,  BUT ....... when you have value to the tune of 30% then the bookie is on the wrong side of a 69% value bet when doing doubles ?

[Snoopdog]

Mick B,

In general, I'm very much a singles punter. I have convinced myself the worst value bets are those between 4/6 and 6/4 (the range that the public and I seem to love). Geoff Banks once said: "the public love a shorty, but generally call it a day at 4/6".

I am now starting to trial doubles with approx 1/2 chances. (A pair of 1/2 double pays 5/4). The strike rate is looking higher than might be mathematically expected comparing 1/2 with the 4/6 - 6/4 chances. Early prices essential as the 1/2 frequently become 1/3 or shorter later on.

Early days.