SIG's AW Sprint Ratings

[SIG]

It's been a while since I've been on here  Hope everyone is doing good?

I've been busy over the past few months refining my speed ratings and the entire process of compiling them. If any of you remember my original thread speed ratings, you will recall that the ratings themselves were pretty spot on. However they were very time consuming to produce - It was taking me several hours to work through just 2 or 3 races and I working 70 hour weeks at the time. 

Unfortunately I couldn't refine the process and continue to produce the ratings at the same time (and I had a holiday to pay off and the last few payments on my bike to make!) so I kept going with the old process until around October last year. I took a couple of months off to recharge and have been back at it again since the new year. 

The last few months have been spent stripping the entire process back and rebuilding it from the ground up. It is still a WIP but this version has performed well in back testing and I am happy with how involved this set of ratings are to produce now. It takes me around 90 minutes to work through a 12 runner race, a third of that time is spent updating my database as it went largely untouched since last year. I'll update it as I go over the next couple of months and eventually we'll reach a point where I can reduce the time spent per race to around an hour.

I'll post my selections up here along with my final analysis probably the day before with any updates to follow up until the off. Any comments are welcomed as I'm posting here in the hope of generating a bit of discussion, to help get my head back in the game. I've been buried in databases and formulas for the past few months and to be honest I haven't even watched a race since October. I think it could take me a week or nine to get my old pace analyst cap back on, start to see what the numbers are really saying and noticing the finer details 

I'll run a 100pt bank with 1% stakes so we can track the P&L and see how we get on over the next couple of weeks.

Cheers, 
SIG

[SIG]

11th April 2017 - Selections

2:30 Lingfield - Speed Rankings & Runner Analysis
1. TEAM MEETING - Only one previous run. Different class of pace. Distance should suit. Hasn't run since Nov 16.
2. LADY CRISTAL - Draw in stall 2 suits. Early pace to outside suits style. Potential stamina concern at distance?
3. ATLANTA BELLE - Fastest over C&D. Wide draw doesn't suit. Expect early pace. Stamina concern at distance.
4. TAWAAFOQ - First AW run. Should find position chasing early pace setters. Unknown danger. Hasn't run since Oct 16.
5. ANGEL OF DARKNESS - Early pace. Distance should suit. Unknown danger.

Not a great deal of data to work with here and a difficult race to breakdown. I will take a chance and eliminate Team Meeting and Tawaafoq for reasons of conditioning. Neither has raced since the end of last year so I will work on the assumption that both need this run. The speed figures are tight across the top five are tight but I think the handicap will be just too much for Angel of Darkness. Hidden Stash doesn't have the same pace as the rest of these which leaves Lady Cristal and Atlanta Belle. Both have stamina concerns, the more concerning of the two being Atlanta Belle who is also drawn in a poor position out wide. Lady Cristal is drawn well in stall 2 and has two excellent horses on either side to set her early pace against. I don't think she can win from the front so I hope the jockey allows her to chase the leading pack. There is every possibility she will run out of steam over the last 100 yards but by then she should hopefully have done enough. However we will know well before then if Team Meeting has any conditioning concerns or not.

LADY CRISTAL - 1pt Win @ 20/1

4:00 Lingfield - Speed Rankings & Runner Analysis
1. BORN TO FINISH - Rear runner. Fastest over C&D. Powerful late finisher. Different class of pace. Distance should suit.
2. BALLESTEROS - Draw in stall 4 should suit. Different class of pace. Potential stamina concern at distance?
3. BERTIE BLU BOY - Draw in stall 3 should suit. Not in same class as 1 &2. Distance should suit.
4. VARSOVIAN - Fastest over C&D. Draw not a disadvantage. Not in same class as 1 &2. Distance should suit.

More data available here to work with which has allowed us to breakdown this race much easier. I have spent time trying to figure out how Born To Finish could be beaten in this one. He is well ahead of the rest of the field, the only runner who maybe has the potential to challenge him is Ballesteros. At any rate he is the only one capable of offering any opposition in this race although he has stamina concerns so against a big finisher like Born, it is potentially optimistic opposition at best. 

BALLESTEROS - 1pt Win @ 11/1

Cheers,
SIG