Racing Chat - Saturday (Inc Scoop6)

[BillyHills]

Tote Scoop6

Saturday January 21st

There were 2 winners of the Scoop6 last Saturday who got £444,071 each! They will attempt to add another £283,793 to that by selecting the winner of this week’s bonus race, the 3:15 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock. If they fail any winners from this week will play for an even larger bonus next time.

Saturday’s scoop6 starts with £113,517 in the win fund and takes in action from Haydock and Lingfield. (www.scoop6.co.uk)

 

 

Selections:

Leg 1: Lough Kent

With Ascot looking a likely victim of the weather Haydock Park takes the bulk of the action in this weeks Scoop6. The opening leg is a Class 4 handicap hurdle and it looks wide open. Three horses in the middle of the handicap appeal to me and while i respect Free Stone Hill and Chieftains Choice my tentative vote goes to last time out winner Lough Kent.

Leg 2: Politologue

A Grade 2 Novice Chase is next and a very promising sort in Politologue will be hard to beat. He has won his only two starts over fences and has been extremely impressive in doing so. Four of the six runners actually come here after being victorious last time and the main danger could be Its'afreebee.

Leg 3: John Reel

Our first and only visit to Lingfield takes in a Class 2 handicap over 12f. Top weight Pinzolo will be popular after his win last time out and he's up 5lbs now. John Reel is a consistent sort and could be the one here along with the Johnston runner Sennokian Star.

Leg 4: Definitely Red 4/1 Bet365

The big race of the day is the Peter March Chase and we have a terrific renewal on our hands. French import Alary is the interesting one for Colin Tizzard, he makes his British debut and has been quoted as low as 16/1 for the Gold Cup. I'll watch him this time and plump for Definitely Red who won well last time and have a saver on Bristol De Mai.

Leg 5: Ubaltique

A Class 3 chase and any of them could win this to be honest. My two against the field are Pistol Park and Ubaltique with a marginal vote going for the latter. Donald McCain's 9yo finished well last time out when held up off the pace and i'd imagine similar tactics to be used here.

Leg 6: Splash Of Ginge

The last leg is a tricky looking handicap hurdle and the two last time out winners look the ones to concentrate on. Desert Cry hacked up at Ayr to follow up an earlier victory and now looks back to his best. I like Splash Of Ginge who lost his way over fences but bounced back last time over the smaller obstacles, he could go in again now his confidence has been restored.

 

Perm: 16 bets

Leg 1: Lough Kent, Free Stone Hill
Leg 2: Politologue
Leg 3: John Reel, Sennokian Star
Leg 4: Definitely Red, Bristol De Mai
Leg 5: Ubaltique
Leg 6: Splash Of Ginge, Desert Cry

 

[Trotter]

The Clerk at Ascot is pessimistic about the chance of racing going ahead on Saturday - the ground is frozen and temperatures are expected to be sub-zero overnight

[BillyHills]

[beaker1]

1.30 Haydock – Star Sports Cheltenham Preview Evening Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

This looks to be an interesting renewal of this race with some unexposed contenders that are full of potential. Four of the runners have already won over fences, including Tom George’s Bun Doran, who was a comfortable winner of a Newcastle handicap chase off a mark of 134. Clearly this is a horse with plenty of ability and 142 may be more reflective of how good he is and could be – he stays this trip well, likes soft ground and jumps like an old hand. This is clearly a step up in class and it could be too much for him at this stage in his career, but he’s progressive so could go well.

 

Dan Skelton’s Its’afreebee easily disposed of Cole Harden at Wetherby last time out and looks a player based on that, but was well-beaten by O O Seven at Cheltenham in a less competitive race than this the run before that. He’ll have to improve again to play a big part, but the soft ground should help – he’ll definitely be able to cope with it better than some others after winning twice on heavy ground here over hurdles last season.

 

Maximiser is an intriguing runner here for Simon West and is a horse that’s always been held in very high regard by the stable. He was a close second to Silsol on his chasing debut and six lengths in front of Seeyouatmidnight, before falling in the Grade 2 Berkshire Novices’ Chase at Newbury next time out. A close second in France in a Listed Hurdle race was followed by this season’s pipe opener in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, where he was pulled up, and he’ll have come on for that. Rated 142 over hurdles, this horse has always looked as if he would be a better chaser and with the weight he receives here from all but one of his rivals, he might go better than his price may suggest.

 

The other horse in the race who gets weight from the rest is Colin Tizzard’s Solatentif, who was second behind Baron Alco on his chasing debut at Plumpton when last seen. He couldn’t live with that 143-rated rival there, but in only getting beaten a couple of lengths, he showed that he could punch his weight at this kind of level granted the standard improvement you’d expect on a second run over fences. He’ll enjoy the ground and the longer trip, so might be another to keep an eye on at a likely bigger price.

 

However, all the above look to have a way to go to match the form of Malcolm Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently, who defeated Forest Bihan comfortably enough last time out at Newcastle – that rival went on to bolt up a couple of weeks ago. This horse has done everything right in his five starts under rules to date and is a very lightly-raced improver who will probably enjoy this step up in trip and the soft ground. He’s only six, but the Flemensfirth gelding looks to have a big career ahead of him, already rated 142 over fences and with the potential to rate a good deal higher already. Brian Hughes takes the ride once again and he looks certain to run a good race.

 

But in the shape of Paul Nicholls’ POLITOLOGUE, he encounters a rival of a standard he’s never come across before. Also a six-year-old and a lightly-raced sort, he demolished the field on his chasing debut this season even though Nicholls thought he’d need the run and then went on to defeat Rock The Kasbah and subsequent Kauto Star Novices’ Chase winner Royal Vacation at Ascot in a Grade 2. The thing that stood out for me in both of those wins was his staggeringly brilliant jumping – whether he was held up or making all, he leapt like a stag and judging by Nicholls’ comments about minding him this season, so he’s got the experience to ‘take on the big boys’ next campaign, the trainer knows that he’s got something very useful on his hands. Even though he’ll have to concede 3lb or 7lb to all of his rivals, he’s looked a cut above so far and should continue on his steeply upward curve.

Advce

POLITOLOGUE – 2pts win @ 6/4 (Betfair Sportsbook)

 

 

 
2.05 Haydock – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

Although this race (Cinders and Ashes aside) hasn’t really lived up to its name as a Supreme Trial over the last ten years, it looks as if we may actually have a contender or two for that race entered here this time around, even if they may not have shown their hands yet.

 

Craggaknock might not be quite up to that level, but he’s unbeaten over hurdles after two runs and was impressive last time out in beating Azzuri at Wetherby. Although Mark Walford may not be the most fashionable name, he looks to have done very well with this horse, rated 82 on the flat, and the Authorized gelding looks already to be a better horse over obstacles. The soft ground should be fine and he’ll run a solid race, even if there may be more progressive sorts in the contest.

 

One who will love the likely soft ground is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Crievehill, who was last seen winning well in heavy ground at Lingfield in a novices’ handicap hurdle off a mark of 122. However, even though he’s now rated 130, it still leaves him with a lot to find with the better horses in the race and he’s best left alone here.

 

Harry Fry’s stable is in superb form at the moment and he’ll look to make hay while the sun shines with his unbeaten Neon Wolf, who has won a point, a bumper and a hurdle in his three runs. Although the form of his Novices’ hurdle win at Exeter may not be very strong, he did it nicely in soft ground and could well be anything. The second in that race was second again over two and three quarter miles this week, so it’s not as if he beat nothing, but it does seem a marked step up in class that many novices would find difficult to overcome. The six-year-old is a nice horse, but I wonder if he’d be better suited by more of a test, two and a half miles specifically.

 

It’s clear that Alan King’s Elgin is the one to beat after his win in a high-quality novice hurdle at Kempton last time out where Supreme hype-horse Jenkins disappointed back in fourth. That was a nice effort and showed the horse had progressed from his win in soft ground at Newcastle, where he pulled hard and jumped right handed at times. His rating of 145 looks somewhat high, but he’s done all that has been asked of him over obstacles so far. The worry with this horse would firstly, be if his keenness returns in this soft ground and smallish field and secondly be about whether he’s better going right handed, as his trainer seemed to imply after his win at Kempton. King’s charge also has to give away 3lb at least to everything else in the race, so at a very short price, he might be worth opposing.

 

Second in that Kempton race was a horse making his hurdles debut, Dan Skelton’s MOHAAYED, and this five-year-old certainly looked as if he had taken to the new discipline like a duck to water. Despite racing keenly towards the back of the pack early on, the gelding travelled smoothly to track the leaders entering the straight, and while he couldn’t quite get on terms with Elgin on that occasion, he did stay on nicely to finish a close second. His jumping was much better than many horses that come from the flat and he looks a very useful tool to go to war with for Skelton in this division. Rated 107 at his peak on the flat, when trained by Kevin Prendergast in Ireland, this horse looks to have the potential to be a 150-rated hurdler if he can improve from that first effort. He gets an extra couple of pounds (7lb now compared to 5lb at Kempton) in weight allowance from the favourite here and it wouldn’t surprise me if the soft ground and left-handed track played more to his strengths than to Elgin’s. All in all, there’s enough to suggest that MOHAAYED could well improve enough to overturn the Kempton result here and he looks the speculative bet at the prices.

Advice

 

MOHAAYED – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Stan James, Ladbrokes, Coral)

 
3.15 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase.

The Peter Marsh Chase has been abandoned three times in recent years which makes it slightly more difficult race to analyse over a ten year period.

 

However the trends still hold their own when it comes to selecting winners of this race. In terms of age, the success of Wychwoods Brook last year meant that an eight or nine-year-old had been successful in six of the last ten renewals. Just over half of this year’s field of 14 sit within the desired bracket, including the likes of Sausalito Sunrise, Otago Trail, Definitly Red and Bishops Road. Whilst horses older than this have done well in recent years, you have to go back to 1996 to find the last seven-year-old to land this prize, which doesn’t bode well for Alary and Vintage Clouds.

 

Eight of the last ten renewals have been run on ground described as no better than ‘soft’ and with eighteen fences to face over a 3m trip, ground conditions must be brought into consideration. Looking back to all of the past ten winners, every single one had previously showed winning ability on soft or heavy ground. This year’s renewal looks to be no different with conditions described as soft at the time of writing but all of this year’s field appear to have shown a liking for these conditions in the past.

 

As I mentioned above the Peter March can often turn into a bit of a slog and therefore there is no point taking a chance on a horse’s stamina. In fact, eight of the last ten winners had previous winning form over three miles or further. Those with questions marks over their stamina in this year’s field are Alary, Bristol De Mai, O Maonlai and Vintage Clouds.

The weight carried can often have a significant impact on the result especially in testing conditions as we saw last year when Cloudy Too carried a low weight to victory. The ceiling in this case looks to be 11st 1lb as only three recent winners have carried more than that to success. When applying that to this year’s field it spells trouble for supporters of Alary (11st 10lb), Sausalito Sunrise (11st 3lb) and Bristol De Mai (11st 2lb).

 

Our Vic was a previous Grade 1 winner when he battled to success here in 2010 and while that is a slight extreme, the race can now boast the fact that seven of the last ten winners had previously been successful at Class 2 level or better. There is a quartet of runners without this on the resume, O Maonlai, Berea Boru, Vintage Clouds and Gevrey Chambertin although it is worth noting that the last named is a Class 1 winner over hurdles.

 

When looking at trainers, Sue Smith and Venetia Williams have both won this race on more than one occasion in recent years. This year Williams saddles two runners in the shape of Otago Trail and Katenko, whilst Sue Smith relies on Vintage Clouds. Both trainers have a fine record in the race and will be hoping they can add to that this year.

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and with Lord Transcend the only winning favourite in the last ten renewals it is fair to say that this is not a race in which following the market leader has proved successful. Recent winning SPs of 33/1, 20/1 and 16/1 also suggest that it shouldn’t put us off taking a chance on an outsider.

 

Shortlist

 

OTAGO TRAIL – 7/7

 

Definitly Red – 6/7

 

Bishops Road – 6/7

Conclusion

 

Only one horse matches all seven of our trends for this race and that is the nine-year-old OTAGO TRAIL. Venetia William’s gelding won the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on his penultimate start at Newcastle, getting the better of a number of today’s rivals including Bristol De Mai and Definitly Red. He seems to relish soft ground and the ground was probably a bit quick for him at Leopardstown over Christmas. With Charlie Deutsch taking 3lb off his back, he races off just 2lb higher than he did at Newcastle and given Venetia Williams’ record in staying chases, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.

 

Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Definitly Red who won the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby on his latest outing. Brian Ellison’s eight-year-old jumped much better on that occasion than he had done at Newcastle the time before and despite an 8lb rise in the weights, he is still likely to be in the shake-up. The only trend he misses out on is that he isn’t trained by Venetia Williams or Sue Smith but he still remains a strong contender.

 

The final member of the shortlist is Bishops Road who won the Grand National Trial at Haydock last February. Kerry Lee’s nine-year-old has failed to fire on his next four starts but the handicapper has cut him some slack by dropping him 5lb, so perhaps he will shape better this time. What we do know is that he relishes soft ground and stays well and so he could run better than his odds suggest.

Advice

OTAGO TRAIL – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365) (3 places)

 

 
4.20 Haydock – Peover Handicap Hurdle

The final race at Haydock on Saturday is likely to have a short-priced favourite in the shape of Aintree My Dream who makes his handicap debut. Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old won his first two starts for the yard and ran with plenty of credit when fourth behind subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Messire Des Obeaux at Sandown in December. The ground may just have been quick enough for him on that occasion and he should relish the return to soft ground here. His initial handicap mark of 129 looks fairly lenient but surprises can happen in these conditions so I wouldn’t be keen on taking a very short price.

Aside from the potential handicap blot, the race looks a fairly open one with the resurgent Desert Cry heading the weights. Donald McCain’s eleven-year-old has won his last two starts and won with plenty in hand at Ayr last time, suggesting that a 5lb rise might not be enough to stop him. He goes well in this soft ground but I suspect he may struggle to concede weight all around here.

 

Also towards the head of the weights is Splash Of Ginge who made a winning return to hurdles over course and distance last month. The nine-year-old was able to take advantage of his lower hurdles mark following a string of disappointing efforts over fences and showed a fine attitude to fend off Little Boy Boru in the closing stages. With Sam Twiston-Davies taking over from Jamie Bargary, he is effectively 8lb higher here but his mark is still some way below his peak chase mark, so he is expected to go well.

 

One member of this field who should relish the underfoot conditions is Sirop De Menthe whose latest win came at Ffos Las in November. The seven-year-old was all out to hold on that day and he might just have come back a bit soon when fifth at Sandown next time. The good to soft ground may also have been on the quick side for him as he didn’t travel throughout the race and these conditions should show him in a better light. He does however still have to prove this mark isn’t beyond him.

 

The veteran Meister Eckhart looks to be dangerously handicapped on his old form although he has failed to fire on his two runs this season. It could be that following an absence of the best part of two years, it has taken him a couple of runs to get fit and if that is the case, he could be interesting here. He wears cheekpieces for the first time here and also gets the assistance of Adrian Heskin in the saddle, who I have been very impressed with since he came to Britain at the beginning of the season. Now on a mark of 132, he was a head second in the National Spirit Hurdle off 150 a couple of years ago and a return to anything like that form would put him right in the mix.

 

One of the least exposed runners in the field is James Evans’ Desilvano who hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field at Cheltenham in November 2015. Prior that he had looked progressive in winning a bumper and two novice hurdles, seeming to relish the test of stamina at Catterick over an extended 3m. He struggled in the three handicaps he did contest but the handicapper has dropped him 4lb and Ben Poste also take a useful 3lb off his back. He will need to be very fit to last home in these conditions but doesn’t have many miles on the clock and he could run better than his sizeable odds suggest.

 

However, the one who catches the eye is Tim Vaughan’s DADSINTROUBLE who looked to be travelling well when falling at Cheltenham in October. Tim Vaughan’s seven-year-old was having just his third start in handicaps that day, having won on his handicap debut at Wincanton in April. Since that win, he has shaped on both occasions as though he is a good deal better than his current mark of 117 and so he is of serious interest with just 10st 3lb on his back. Having won on soft ground at Wincanton he should handle conditions and in an open heat, he looks to have a good each-way chance at a slightly bigger price.

Advice

 

DADSINTROUBLE – 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)  (3 places

 

[Striker]

Good luck all

1.05 Navan

Think the hot pot Jezki is worth taking on with these two decent horses from top stables

Renneti @ 6-1  Betfair Sports

Tombstone @ 11-2 Betfair Sports

1pt win on each [BOG]

[robertob]

2.35 Lingfield: Rock Steady @ 5/1 Bet365

Pinzolo looks to have the race at his mercy given he won off one pound higher over CD last year and was impressive lto, but he gives weight away to improving Rock Steady who in five starts on the All-Weather ran five times into the money and who confirmed a fine 12f success at Wolverhampton with a subsequent effort over slightly further when agonisingly beaten in the closing stages. Down to his potential optimum he may improve a couple of pounds yet again. 

3.15 Haydock: Virak @ 20/1 Bet365

Virak was a fine runner-up in this very same race last year off a seven pound higher mark. He gets his soft conditions today again and given his excellent track record should ensure he can run big with connections having this race in mind for a while. On the other side the last two disappointing performances are a concern, it's hard to know if he's right. But at the price he's a live chance. 

[BillyHills]

[Jimmy2shoes]

Not speaking out of pocket here but felt Jockey Nathan Evans was shocking in the (Div 1) handicap at Newcastle - 19:45

Visibly on the best horse but got his sums wrong and clearly cost punters with a Piss Poor ride, i do hate when Jockeys can't WAKE UP horses for that run ON TIME.

IF ONLY they could set that Alarm a little sooner, no other excuse for it, caught sleeping.

 http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/21-01-2017/newcastle/result/759444/sun-bets-on-the-app-store-handicap-div-1

Edited January 22, 2017 by Jimmy2shoes

[BillyHills]

Not the first time Jimmy, he rode one the other day that was a shocker too.