2016 Darts Match-play

[Fader]

Looking at the draw, I'll be taking two outrights. Anderson has more than put his double problems past him over the last few years and can dominate here. He should really make the final and after a tricky round 1 tie with Norris, he shouldn't look back until the final. There is also a nice price boost with Skybet on him at 5/1 so I'll be on that.

Second, I'll be on James Wade who is huge value. Success here in the past and a nice draw really with only Taylor to worry him (who he has beat last few times they've played) the machine on his day can beat anyone.

Tips :
2pts G.Anderson to win 5/1 Skybet
1pt E/W J.Wade to win 28/1 888Sport

[Jazzer Isaac]

BetVictor World Matchplay 

Round One

Tonight 22:00 

Dave Chisnall vs Benito van de Pas – over 9.5 180s @ 4/5. 1 point. 365.

Not much can be said about this one. Everybody will have the data – bookies’ prices are just down to how they interpret that data. The key interpretation I make is that Benito van de Pas is a better 180 hitter than the raw data suggests, which is why this line is attractive.

Benito van de Pas is one of the rising stars of the game – as a consequence of this, he has had relatively little TV exposure, and thus there is little data on his 180ing standard. Similarly, as a consequence of his continued and rapid improvement, a lot of this available data doesn’t accurately reflect how he is playing now. In light of this, it seems sensible to assign greater weighting to the most recent data points, with big error margins on any statistics you deduce.

Basically, BvdP has had the year of his career so far – he won his first two tour events, and has said in interviews that he feels a lot more comfortable on the stage nowadays. That has been reflected in a marked increase in his 180ing stats – improving his frequency by almost 80% from last season to this – going from the second worst 180er in the top 32 to comfortably ‘mid-table’. 

As two statistical ‘soundbites’ to emphasise van de Pas’ improvement in maximum hitting: he has hit 25 180s in 101 stage legs this year - whilst it took him 171 legs to hit his previous 25 stage 180s - and he hit only 13 180s in his last 101 legs preceding this season. 

I’ve chosen to take the match total rather than individual total because van de Pas is playing against Dave Chisnall. Chizzy is the best 180 hitter in darts, and he improves his 180ing in the longer games (like he will be playing tonight). Chisnall has often said that when he “finds his rythym”, he finds 180 hitting easy – the longer games gave him more chance to find that rythym. This is backed up by an increase of 0.2 180s per leg from his overall 180ing frequency to his 180ing frequency in games over 15 legs long. His 180ing rates have a big positive skew, and should he find his rhythm early, he could cover this line on his own (he did in his first round match here last year, hitting 13).

My 180 model throws out the o9.5 as a 1.56 shot to 100% - this is whilst, 1) taking the market averages on each leg line (I have no strong opinion, but would slightly favour the over), 2) giving van de Pas a slightly lower frequency input than I think is true (to account for the increased error margin), and 3) ignoring Chisnall’s improvement over the longer format. 

When I hand-priced the line, I had it as a u/o 10.5 pickem. I’m not going silly, but there are a few angles that I think make this a solid pick, and I’ve no qualm about staking this to kick off the tournament tonight.