2016 Darts Match-play

[Fader]

Looking at the draw, I'll be taking two outrights. Anderson has more than put his double problems past him over the last few years and can dominate here. He should really make the final and after a tricky round 1 tie with Norris, he shouldn't look back until the final. There is also a nice price boost with Skybet on him at 5/1 so I'll be on that.

Second, I'll be on James Wade who is huge value. Success here in the past and a nice draw really with only Taylor to worry him (who he has beat last few times they've played) the machine on his day can beat anyone.

Tips :
2pts G.Anderson to win 5/1 Skybet
1pt E/W J.Wade to win 28/1 888Sport

[Jazzer Isaac]

BetVictor World Matchplay 

Round One

Tonight 22:00 

Dave Chisnall vs Benito van de Pas – over 9.5 180s @ 4/5. 1 point. 365.

Not much can be said about this one. Everybody will have the data – bookies’ prices are just down to how they interpret that data. The key interpretation I make is that Benito van de Pas is a better 180 hitter than the raw data suggests, which is why this line is attractive.

Benito van de Pas is one of the rising stars of the game – as a consequence of this, he has had relatively little TV exposure, and thus there is little data on his 180ing standard. Similarly, as a consequence of his continued and rapid improvement, a lot of this available data doesn’t accurately reflect how he is playing now. In light of this, it seems sensible to assign greater weighting to the most recent data points, with big error margins on any statistics you deduce.

Basically, BvdP has had the year of his career so far – he won his first two tour events, and has said in interviews that he feels a lot more comfortable on the stage nowadays. That has been reflected in a marked increase in his 180ing stats – improving his frequency by almost 80% from last season to this – going from the second worst 180er in the top 32 to comfortably ‘mid-table’. 

As two statistical ‘soundbites’ to emphasise van de Pas’ improvement in maximum hitting: he has hit 25 180s in 101 stage legs this year - whilst it took him 171 legs to hit his previous 25 stage 180s - and he hit only 13 180s in his last 101 legs preceding this season. 

I’ve chosen to take the match total rather than individual total because van de Pas is playing against Dave Chisnall. Chizzy is the best 180 hitter in darts, and he improves his 180ing in the longer games (like he will be playing tonight). Chisnall has often said that when he “finds his rythym”, he finds 180 hitting easy – the longer games gave him more chance to find that rythym. This is backed up by an increase of 0.2 180s per leg from his overall 180ing frequency to his 180ing frequency in games over 15 legs long. His 180ing rates have a big positive skew, and should he find his rhythm early, he could cover this line on his own (he did in his first round match here last year, hitting 13).

My 180 model throws out the o9.5 as a 1.56 shot to 100% - this is whilst, 1) taking the market averages on each leg line (I have no strong opinion, but would slightly favour the over), 2) giving van de Pas a slightly lower frequency input than I think is true (to account for the increased error margin), and 3) ignoring Chisnall’s improvement over the longer format. 

When I hand-priced the line, I had it as a u/o 10.5 pickem. I’m not going silly, but there are a few angles that I think make this a solid pick, and I’ve no qualm about staking this to kick off the tournament tonight.

[Fader]

18/07/16 

2pts S.Beaton to beat J.Klaasen 5/2 Ladbrokes
2pts R.Van Barneveld Vs B.Dolan - Match to be under 6.5 180's, Checkout to be under 127.5 and under 15.5 legs 11/2 Skybet

Fancy Beaton to spring a surprise tonight. Klaasen is bang out of form where as Beaton is enjoying some of his best form in a while. Van Barneveld isn't exactly loving this place either but I think he'll win against Dolan easy enough. I'm taking a low key game, low 180s, low checkout and a 10-4 or 10-5 job.

[Fader]

5pts D.Chisnall -2.5 legs to beat R.Thornton 4/5 Ladbrokes
Thornton came through his first round to finally win a match at the worldmatchplay, however he was pushed quite strongly I thought and I think with the added strength in the scoring from Chisnall, Thornton could again succumb to a few poor scoring turns and find himself always 2nd to the double. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Chisnall win by more, but I'll take this handicap. First to 11 this round remember.

 

[Fader]

5pts B.Dolan to beat M.King 17/10 Boylesports
4pts P.Taylor -4.5 legs to beat M.Suljovic Evens Betfair
3pts S.Beaton to beat M.Smith 16/5 Boylesports
Few "shocks" tonight for me. I fancy Dolan to beat King. King played well against Wade but looked in pain with his back and the heat isn't going to help him feel comfortable out there. I'm sure if need be Dolan will slow the game also and Dolan has a decent record against King too. Taylor has a real hex on Mensur and has beaten him easily in there match-ups. I fancy him to do something similar tonight. Finally, Smith didn't score strongly enough for me against Whitlock and Beaton scored solid and doubled well too so Beaton also has a chance for me tonight.

[Fader]

Good night last night. Beaton is looking excellent. Hope he produces that against Anderson, despite my outright bet. +15.6pts so far.

3.5pts P.Wright to beat A.Lewis Evens Coral
2.1pts D.Chisnall to beat Van Gerwen 13/2 Ladbrokes

I will go for Wright in what should be a tight match but I think Wright is playing the more solid at the moment. Van Gerwen 9  times out of 10 will be Chisnall but I don't think on recent meetings and also looking how good Chisnall looks right now, he is a 13/2 shot. 

[Fader]

poor from Wright lastnight I thought, when Aidy was there for the taking. Chizzy really bottled the start too so not a good day in the Darts. I only like one tonight and it's a big price 11/2 treble with Skybet 

2pts (M.King Vs P.Taylor) - Match to have under 11.5 180s, checkout under 138.5 & Under 24.5 Total Legs 11/2 Skybet

Edited July 22, 2016 by Fader