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Jazzer Isaac

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About Jazzer Isaac

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 03/13/1993

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  1. BetVictor World Matchplay Round One Tonight 22:00 Dave Chisnall vs Benito van de Pas – over 9.5 180s @ 4/5. 1 point. 365. Not much can be said about this one. Everybody will have the data – bookies’ prices are just down to how they interpret that data. The key interpretation I make is that Benito van de Pas is a better 180 hitter than the raw data suggests, which is why this line is attractive. Benito van de Pas is one of the rising stars of the game – as a consequence of this, he has had relatively little TV exposure, and thus there is little data on his 180ing stan
  2. I've had some small stakes on home. 10/1 win with Coral, 13/2 DNB, 29/10 double chance and 13/10 +2 EH. Priced as if the Dons will stick out a first XI in my opinion - won't happen. They played away in the Europa League on Thursday, and are at home in the Europa League on Wednesday. Can't see them risking players at this stage of the pre-season and at this level of fitness. Obviously a big quality gap and you fancy Aberdeen U21/fringe players to still go off favs, but I can't ignore the misprice.
  3. There is 9k available on Betfair for Portugal to win Euro 2016 at 16.5. The Betfair Exchange at decent liquidity is one of the best predictors of true probability available to the layman in my opinion. By its nature, the smart money will dictate the expected price, but I think the actual price is often slightly distorted from this by 'punters' money. In light of this, I think Portugal at the above price are a good back to lay opportunity. The premise being three fold: 1) Both sides' last matches: Croatia beat Spain, Portugal conceded 3 to Hungary and drew. I think this will cause t
  4. Euro Tour 4 Today 15:30 Michael van Gerwen vs Daryl Gurney - over 4.5 180s @ 8/11. Bet365. 1 point. European Tour gift. The two best 180 hitters of 2016 by a margin, should piss in without something going majorly wrong. (I don't want to say what my sums get the o4.5 price at, but I would be looking at over 5.7 180s for a fair 8/11 price). I took evens on Betfair to a bigger stake this morning and have rebacked this price to 1 point. GLt
  5. Most 180s of the week - Michael van Gerwen @ 5/6. 5 points. Betfred. I won't bore you with the sums but this is way, way over on PL performance this season. A lot of the excess probability is held in Lewis' price, which I think is under due to his 9 last week. MvG beats him comfortably over summed 2 game samples and beats the field >90% when 2 plays 1 matchwise. Biggest bet I've had since the World Matchplay. Definitely a price worth having. Hopefully Michael does the business.
  6. Unibet Masters Day 1 Saturday 30th January Michael van Gerwen vs Stephen Bunting - Michael van Gerwen -4.5 @ 10/11. 1 point. 365. - Michael van Gerwen -6.5 @ 3/1. 0.5 points. 365. Stephen Bunting hasn't looked right for a decent while in my opinion. There has been a noticable slump in both his performances and results, coupled with a visible lack of confidence in his body language and a slight slowing of his throw. I think this has probably been caused by his poor Premier League last season, which has affected so many other players in the past. But whatever the reason
  7. James Wade vs Wes Newton - James Wade win, high checkout and most 180s @ 15/8. 2 points. Sky. An early one cos cash is going in over the Wade 180s. Most 180s came back at 8/11, down a tick to best priced 4/6 already. -1.5 180 handicap came back at 11/8, already down to 6/5. I've missed 2 bets that I'd want to be on there. Basically, as has been talked about a lot, Newton has been in a bad form for about two years now. He didn't qualify for any tv tournaments, so I didn't know exactly how bad he was going until yesterday. He just did not look like a pro dart player in that game. He
  8. Adrian Lewis vs Jan Dekker - Adrian Lewis to win 3-0 @ 5/4. PP. 1 point. - Adrian Lewis king of the oche @ 10/11. Coral. 1 point. Jan Dekker hasn't had the best of years. He failed to win a tour card last January and hasn't done much on the tour since anyway. He holds a record of 7-20 in Players Championship events, reaching a solitary last 16 on the floor and didn't qualify for any TV events in 2016. He did finish second on the Challenge Tour OoM, so he can't be playing too badly - but playing the world #5 in a World Championship is a very different prospect to a non-profess
  9. Tyson Fury 80/1. Betfair Sportsbook. He's 4/1 to beat Klitschko this weekend. Take that as the true chance, and is he really a 16/1 shot to win SPOTY as a newly crowned Heavyweight World Champion? Factor in that i) it's a public vote, ii) he would get a load of media exposure, iii) his win would only be two weeks before the presentation, iv) the public could quite easily latch onto his 'cult of personality'. And I think that this could be a price. I've never bet on a market like this before so I'm looking for some advice on anything I've missed before pulling the trigger. Anyone got
  10. Players Championships Finals 2015. Friday 27th November. 3:30pm Brendan Dolan vs Simon Whitlock - Simon Whitlock @ 10/11. 2 points. Betway. Early but I like this one. I'm really not expressing myself coherently in the write up but I hope you can see the general point. It reads like a ramble. -Whitlock's good game beats Dolan's good game. -Whitlock's average game beats Dolan's average game. -Whitlock's poor game beats Dolan's poor game. -Dolan has just dipped out of form recently and is on the slide at the moment. -Whitlock has been out of form for a while but he
  11. Max Hopp vs Dimitri van den Bergh - Dimitri van den Bergh @ 7/5. 1 point. Unibet/888. Value shot. A match between two players I consider fairly even ability-wise. Hopp has earnt the more £ of the two this year, though both will qualify for the World Championships. It is easy to argue German players are given a leg-up OOM-wise through the weaker home-nation qualifiers in Europe, but the difference isn't enough to mean much really. Van den Bergh leads the h2h 2-0 although this is fairly irrelevant too. Both come into the tournament in decent form - Hopp reaching the Worl
  12. Kim Huybrechts vs Mark Oosterhuis - Kim Huybrechts -1 3-way 180 handicap @ 5/4. 3 points. PP. Huybrechts has hit 9 180s in 13 legs so far in this tournament. Oosterhuis hasn't even managed a 140 in 10 legs and has only hit 1 two-treble score... Huybrechts has been smashing them in for fun since the Premier League but I'd be surprised if he can maintain his tournament 180ing rate in this match. And I don't expect Oosterhuis to throw so badly in this match, but I think there's still a bet here. I think the match will have only 5 legs, but there's no price on the correct score any more. The pric
  13. +16.33 points. Can't complain about that!
  14. Monday Justin Pipe vs Steve Beaton The double-in format, the set format and the short length of first round matches make this stage of the tournament difficult to price accurately. But I think you may be getting a decent bet on this. I was disappointed when these two drew each other – both haven't been playing to their abilities recently and I was looking at two losses had they not drawn each other. Steve Beaton is a player on a bad run. The last match he won on TV was in November 2013 and the one before that was December 2012. Despite having some bad luck with the draw over the past year, he
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