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Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase - Tuesday 15th


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Douvan looks like he could possibly be the best horse in training and put in a breathtaking performance over Christmas even though he has made a couple of slight mistakes over his fences if you want to be picky. There's no way I'm looking to take him on but with Bet365 now going NRNB there is an absolute standout bet at 50/1 against the rest of the field. This horse opened at 3/1 on his debut when he was smashed in to 13/8 and looked to be on course to win by half the track before falling 4 out. He then went to Naas and opened at 7/4 before going off at 4/6 and was one of the easiest winners you'll see of a beginners chase in Ireland. Costing 300k connections clearly think the world of him and this horse is entered at Leopardstown on Sunday where he is currently 8/15 favourite to win a novice chase. He goes by the name of Alisier D'Irlande.

There's a bit of Un De Sceaux about this horse as he goes off at a frightening pace, fell on his first start over fences and likes to take a little chance over his jumps so I think connections are more likely to go for Aintree for the race the yard won with Sizing Granite last year to give him more time. However if he does put in a faultless round of jumping they could be tempted to go for the Arkle and I honestly think this horse might be the 2nd best horse entered in the race.

If he makes a couple of mistakes at the weekend I'm sure they'll hold off for Aintree and your money will be returned but if he impresses and they decide to go for Cheltenham he could go off a third of the price or less especially with the race expected to cut up a bit. His run style would really put pressure on the jumping of his rivals and he also has the engine to power up the hill at Cheltenham like Un De Sceaux. Going e/w at 50/1 looks a cracking bet with him likely to shorten significantly in price or get your money back after this weekend.

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Very impressive winner today but De Bromhead says they'll "more than likely look at Aintree next". Thought he measured his fences much better today and never looked like falling. Would love to see him go around Cheltenham after that but Aintree is the sensible option with not long to go until the festival.

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Arkle Preview

Verdict:

Douvan looks to be the first real banker of the Festival, he’s a much more solid option than Min in the Supreme and looks likely to follow in the footsteps of Un De Sceaux from twelve months ago. His price will be very short but that won’t worry those including him in accumulators throughout the four days.

L’Ami Serge is my idea of an alternative selection, so would Garde La Victoire if I was sure he was running here instead of the JLT. Both horse are big enough to bet each way.

Selections: 

Douvan 4/9 Paddy Power

L’Ami Serge EW 14/1 Ladbrokes

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  • 2 weeks later...
Just now, BillyHills said:

Very impressive winner, no excuses for anything else.

Another mistake at the last though. I think he looks exceptional when he gets his own way but when he comes up against better horses in open company and gets put under a bit of pressure or the jockey needs to ask him for a bit more I would be a bit worried about his jumping.

Might be nitpicking but that didn't compare with Vautour's performance as a novice last year which is the standard he is expected to hit as a horse widely regarded as possibly the best in training.

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