Saturday Jan 9th Racing (Inc Scoop6)

[BillyHills]

Tote Scoop6 – Saturday January 9th

 

We have a rollover in the Tote Scoop6 this week after everyone was eliminated after four legs last Saturday. The Win Fund starts out at £255,026 with the ever-increasing Bonus Fund now standing at a whopping £704,518. It means one lucky winner could be in for a cool £1 Million prize to start the New Year off in the right way. The first step to the jackpot is to get six winners from this week’s action, which takes place at Chepstow and Kempton over jumps and we have one flat race from Lingfield. The feature race is the Coral Welsh National at 1.45.

 

Leg 1: 1.10 Chepstow

A 3-mile handicap hurdle on heavy ground to get the ball rolling. This will be tough and the winner for the last two years Awaywiththegreys attempts the hat-trick for local trainer Peter Bowen. Was only 7^th here on his seasonal debut and has obviously been aimed at this race. Moorlands Mist ran well here last time over C/D and was 5^th in this race off 4lbs higher a couple of years ago, he’s entitled to go close again. Sykes has been in cracking form for Philip Hobbs and won over C/D in November. He ran well again last time at Newbury and is the pick in a tricky handicap.

Selection: Sykes 11/4 Betfred (Moorlands Mist)

 

Leg 2: 1.45 Chepstow : Welsh Grand National

The big race of the day and hopefully the rain will stay away and we can get it on at the second time of asking. Loads of runners in with a chance here and my shortlist consists of Cogry, Return Spring, Mountainous and probably Bob Ford. Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles Cogry and he’s a promising chaser who should love the conditions. He was a good 4^th at Cheltenham last time and loos reasonably handicapped. Mountainous won this in 2013 but was pulled up last year. He has been brought along steadily this time and should run a decent race and has everything in his favour. Return Spring is a lively outsider if he can handle the ground, it is a worry but I think the horse is made for this race.

Selection: Cogry 8/1 William Hill (Return Spring)

 

Leg 3: 1.55 Lingfield

Our only venture on the AW and a 7f handicap to sort out. It’s pretty low key stuff and it’s fair to say that none of the runners are in much form at present. A tentative vote goes to The Happy Hammer. He has won over C/D and did manage to win another race last September at Chelmsford City. Another C/D winner is Pyroclastic trained by Jim Boyle, he is entered to run on Friday and was 3^rd last time out. It will be interesting if he takes his chance. Poppet Rocket hasn’t run for over 200 days but is an eye-catching runner for Brian Meehan and jockey Paul Mulrennan who has been going well.

Selection: The Happy Hammer 12/1  Ladbrokes (Poppet Rocket)

 

Leg 4: 2.35 Kempton

The Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle is always a competitive affair but it doesn’t attract as many runners as it used to when it was run over two miles. Now days its over 2m5f and often goes to a young progressive type. We have two 5yo’s in the line up that fit the profile and we should concentrate on them. The first is Bivouac trained by Nicky Henderson, he won well at Huntingdon last time and could be well in on 141 and is a course winner. The danger is the Paul Nicholls horse Ibis De Rheu, not been at his bets since coming over from France and should be spot on after a decent seasonal reappearance at Newbury. The top one Brother Tedd is the class act in the race and will be thereabouts.

Selection: Bivouac 9/2 Paddy Power (Ibis De Rheu)

 

 

Leg 5: 3.10 Kempton

9 runners for this 3m handicap chase but one or two of them are entered at Chepstow as well so a tricky one to weigh up. Top weight Le Reve has been below par so far this season but this is his easiest assignment to date and could bounce back. Grandads Horse is beginning to look well handicapped again after a baron spell and he will enjoy the soft conditions while Philip Hobbs runs Kruzhlinin who hasn’t been seen since running over hurdles at Musselburgh back in February for Donald McCain so is a very interesting runner.

Selection: Grandads Horse 12/1 William Hill (Kruzhlinin)

 

Leg 6: 3.45 Kempton

The final leg is a two mile handicap hurdle and both Dormouse and Hollywood All Star come here chasing hat-tricks. Dormouse is an 11yo now and looks in the form of his life, two victories at Lingfield in heavy ground lately has put him up 10lbs and this is a lot different. Hollywood All Star is up 13lbs for wins at Bangor and Uttoxeter and takes a big step up in class. David Pipe has two runners and the pick has to be Stars Over The Sea who won here at Kempton in 2014 and often runs well on flat tracks. War Singer was second in this race last year and is entitled to go well again for trainer Johnny Farrelly.

Selection: Stars Over The Sea 7/1  Bet365  (War Singer)

 

 

[jonshell]

12:35 Chepstow MAXANISI has scope for more improvement now stepped up in trip. He looks a useful prospect and heavy ground will not be a problem to him.  Best price 9/4 Bet365

[beaker1]

12.35 Chepstow – The Download The Coral Mobile App Novices’ Hurdle.

With the ground at Chepstow likely to provide a stern stamina test, this will be a tricky race for novices’ just starting out in their careers.

Millanisi Boy has more experience than most and has shown improved form this campaign. He finished a decent third on his handicap debut at the beginning of November before producing his best effort to date when chasing home subsequent Grade 2 scorer Unowhatimeanharry in a hot novices’ handicap at Newbury’s Hennessy Meeting. He is entitled to have a good chance but his record of 0-10 isn’t the most inspiring in truth.

It could well turn out to be a real slog which may not benefit Maxanisi as he shoulders top weight. The six-year-old is unbeaten in two starts and has shown a good attitude on both occasions. Firstly when just getting up to land a heavy ground Ffos Las bumper before scoring on his debut over the sticks with another finely timed run to nab the lead (from a next time out winner) in the shadow of the post. He has shown that he handles a testing surface which is a big plus but he is now stepping up in trip and it will be difficult to carry a penalty to victory.

Another that has been penalised for a recent success is Never Equalled, although Jordan Williams’ 7lb claim negates this. He has been well regarded by connections since joining them from the Irish pointing field; where he finished second on his only run. He had a fairly inauspicious start under rules, finishing well beaten in fourth at Ffos Las in early November. He produced a much improved performance when runner-up on his next start before opening his account last time out, battling back after making a mistake at the final flight. He should appreciate the step up in trip and handles heavy ground well so is entitled to be on the premises.

However, preference is for MINELLA DADDY who also showed decent form in points over in Ireland. He had a good spin on his rules debut in a Warwick bumper, finishing third , and that will undoubtedly have blown away a few of the cobwebs on his first run for nearly nine months. He was outpaced when the race started to hot up that day, which is not surprising given he has shown he stays three miles and that will undoubtedly leave him in very good stead here, stepping up in trip in stamina-sapping conditions.

Ballybane has winning form in an Irish point and would rate the biggest danger if reproducing the form he showed when third to a subsequent dual-scorer in a Stratford bumper last March. His hurdles debut did leave a lot to be desired as he was well adrift in fourth but he should appreciate the conditions here and may be freshened up off the back of his break since early October. He looks like a chaser in the making and is slightly difficult to weigh up distance-wise given his two runs under rules but he cannot be taken lightly hailing from a Rebecca Curtis stable that has been back amongst the winners recently.

Advice

MINELLA DADDY – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill)

  
1.10 Chepstow – The Coral Proud Supporters Of British Racing Handicap Hurdle.

Gevrey Chambertin is a fascinating contender and it may speak volumes that he has been targeted here rather one of his other numerous options this weekend. He has proven to be a frustrating campaigner for connections and punters alike in recent seasons, flattering to deceive in a couple of seasons over fences and not looking like the force of old returned to the smaller obstacles this season. He did produce a much improved effort last time out when cantering home at Lingfield off a much reduced mark which can only be a positive. That was a particularly weak contest and he does have a 9lb hike in the weights to contend with here but David Noonan does take a valuable 5lb off his back which eases the burden somewhat. There is little doubt that he has the ability to take this but a leap of faith would be required given his overall profile.

The percentage play is SYKES who has been in fine fettle this season and remains a lightly-raced seven-year-old with his best years still ahead of him. He landed a quick-fire early-season double when dead-heating at Aintree and following up over course and distance in a hot handicap hurdle in November. He ran into a handicap blot at Newbury’s Hennessy Meeting but still ran with credit to finish third, albeit beaten a fair way. He races here off the same mark but does have crack conditional Ciaran Gethings taking 5lb off which will make his life much easier in boggy conditions. He is an unexposed type who looks likely to carry on improving and is the one to beat.

Of the remainder, Moorlands Mist looks the biggest danger given his only two wins have both came over course and distance. However, it is over two years since the last of those and he is now 6lb above his last winning mark having finished a decent second (again over course and distance) last time out. It will be interesting to see how Kayf Moss goes back over the sticks following an unsuccessful spell chasing. He finished second off this mark in the Welsh Champion Hurdle a year ago so has the talent for a contest like this but his best form has been over shorter.

Advice

SYKES – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)

  
1.45 Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National.

There are several strong trends that should initially be taken into account before coming to a conclusion. The first of these centres around age and with all of the last ten winners having been aged between six and eight, it is best to steer clear of runners outside of this bracket. There are only four horses within the desired group in this year’s field, the eight-year-olds Upswing and Chase The Spud and the pair of seven-year-olds Cogry and Red Devil Lads.

Another absolutely vital ingredient that all Welsh National winners need is stamina. The three miles, five and a half furlongs contest is often run on testing ground and it is a real stamina-sapping test for the horses. Therefore it is no surprise to learn that all of the last ten winners had won over 3m or further prior to coming here. This time around, only Philip Hobbs’ Bertie Boru has his stamina to prove having won over 2m6½f in the past, whilst Evan Williams’ Allez Vic does have a win over 3m to his name but that was over hurdles.
In the last paragraph I alluded as to how difficult a test this was and down the years fresher horses have dealt with conditions best. To quantify that idea, we can see that nine of the last ten winners of the race had run no more than twice during the current season.  Only four horses miss the cut on this basis, Upswing, Portrait King, Mountainous and Allez Vic so it may be best to steer clear of this quartet.

Recent form can often give an indication of the fitness of a horse and on the whole you need to be looking for an in-form animal here. All but one of the last ten winners had finished in the first four on their most recent visit to the racecourse so this is not a race in which you should be hoping for a horse bouncing back. There are eight who fail to make the grade on this count and I would suggest it is best to look elsewhere.

In terms of weight, the optimum limit appears to be 11st as only two horses have carried more than that to victory in the last decade. When applying that to this year’s field that eliminates a quintet of horses, Black Thunder, Shotgun Paddy, Masters Hill, Benvolio and Emperor’s Choice.

Closely linked to weight is the official rating of each runner and looking at recent winners, the desired bracket appears to be from 130 up to 142. This includes seven of the last ten winners and excludes the top three and bottom four as they appear on the racecard from this year’s renewal.

Given the undulations that runners have to encounter when racing at Chepstow, it will hardly come as a shock that horses with course form have done well over the years. In fact six of the last ten winners had recorded a course success prior to winning here. Looking at the line-up for tomorrow, there are a host of Chepstow winners including Mountainous and Emperor’s Choice who already have their name on the Welsh National roll of honour.

The final factor to take into consideration is the betting and it is fair to say that this is a race in which we should be taking on the market leaders. Silver Birch remains the last winning favourite in 2004 and with the three of the last four winners all having returned at double figure SPs it is worth looking for one at a price.

Shortlist

BOB FORD – 7/8

Cogry – 7/8

Red Devil Lads – 7/8

Tour Des Champs – 7/8

Conclusion

It is tight at the top of the trends tree for this race and with no horse having matched all of our trends, we have four horses who fail on just one trend each.

Nigel Twiston- Davies’ Cogry looks to have a good chance of running well, having finished a good fourth at Cheltenham on his reappearance in November. He won over three miles at Chepstow last Christmas and subsequently went on to win over 3m2f at Warwick before running in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival so stamina shouldn’t be a concern. The major obstacle that he has to overcome is the poor record of favourites in the race as he currently heads the market at around 7/1 with Jonjo O’Neill’s Upswing. He was still going well in the Scottish National last Spring when falling and as long as the burden of favouritism doesn’t weight too heavy, he looks set to be involved at the business end of proceedings.

However I slightly prefer the claims of Rebecca Curtis’ BOB FORD who should relish the attritional underfoot conditions on Saturday afternoon. He won the West Wales National in heavy ground at Ffos Las last January and having bounced back to form at the same venue last time, he looks sure to go well. His Welsh trainer is keen to get her name on the roll of honour for this race and he looks the pick of her two runners. He is nine so sits outside the desired age bracket but it is his form in deep ground which appeals most to me and he gets the nod over the rest of the shortlisted horses.

His stablemate Red Devil Lads also makes the shortlist having continued to improve throughout last Spring, winning three times including twice on heavy ground. He was second to a smart rival in Katkeau on his return to action in December and looks open to further improvement having raced just seven times over the larger obstacles. This will be his first visit to Chepstow so we don’t know if he will handle the track but if he does, he looks likely to play a big part in the outcome.

The final member of the shortlist is Tour Des Champs who won the Welsh Grand National Trial when we last saw him in December. Prior to that, the nine-year-old had been off the track for over eighteen months but he seemed to be as good as ever last time so warrants plenty of respect here. He has snuck in towards the foot of the weights on 10st 4lb and Jamie Bargary also takes a useful 5lb off his back. He saw the trip out really well in the Trial and is likely to be running on again here.

Advice

BOB FORD – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power)

 

 
2.20 Chepstow – coral.co.uk Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

Paul Nicholls’ Adrien Du Pont made his British debut at Chepstow in October where he was a close second behind Alan King’s Sceau Royal but was awarded the race in the Stewards’ room. However despite being fancied to confirm the Stewards’ ruling at Cheltenham he was picked off by his rival who looked to have quite a bit in hand on the day. The fitting of a tongue-tie suggests that connections may have the inkling of a breathing problem with this four-year-old and if very soft ground, it could be hard work for these young horses. He did win on this sort of surface on his only start in his native France but has latest run left him with something to prove and considering his likely short odds, I think it is worth looking elsewhere for a bet in the race.

There aren’t many yards in better form that Philip Hobbs’ string at the moment and he saddles Jaboltiski here who is two from two over the smaller obstacles. A winner at Huntingdon in November, he followed up under a penalty at Exeter next time on heavy ground which bodes well for the conditions he is likely to face on Saturday. He did wander about between the last couple of obstacles which suggests that he was probably getting a little tired in the closing stages but he got the job done and has earned a crack at something like this.

There could be a Welsh-trained winner as Bernard Llewellyn has Borak and Nabhan in the line-up and the pair filled the first two places in a maiden hurdle at Ffos Las last month. The former was a ready winner on the day and having won on flat here in September, he looks the pick of the pair. The ground should be fine for the winner but his win came in a pretty weak contest and he will need to find a lot of improvement to challenge the market principals here.

Nick Williams has won this race twice in the last decade and Coo Star Sivola represents the yard this year. Despite being unfancied he finished a good second at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and gave the impression that he would benefit from the run. This race has clearly been on the agenda for a little while now and although he probably has quite a bit to find with some of his rivals, I fancy him to finish in the places.

However Alan King has his juveniles in good order and saddles the only filly in the field in the shape of FORGIVING GLANCE, who was second behind the smart Jer’s Girl at Aintree last time. The winner was subsequently short-headed in a Grade 1 in Ireland over Christmas so the form looks good but she was beaten ten lengths on the day. It is interesting that King has pitched her in here considering the options he would have had for the race and in receipt of a 7lb weight allowance, I think it is worth taking a chance on her to cause something of an upset.

Bettrends Advice

FORGIVING GLANCE – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Paddy Power)

  
2.35 Kempton Park – The William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle.

One of the strongest trends when it comes to this race is that horses with high official ratings tend to struggle. To put an exact number on it, eight of the last ten winners were rated no higher than 140, although it could be argued that it is nine as Saphir Du Rheu, who won the race two years ago off a mark of 145 had Harry Derham taking 5lb off his back. Either way this is a strong pattern which would be a concern for the five to miss the cut in this year’s field: Brother Tedd, Gevrey Chambertin, Un Ace, Dell’Arca, and Bivouac.

Perhaps the reason for those higher rated horses struggling in recent years is that they carry higher weights than their lower rated rivals. This is backed up by the fact that eight of the last ten winners carried no more than 11st to victory. The top four as they appear on the racecard (Brother Tedd, Gevrey Chambertin, Un Ace and Dell’Arca) all fall at this hurdle so suffer a double blow to their chances.

Recent renewals have also suggested that horses with low mileage have tended to be the ones to follow. Some of these horses have been on the go since October or November and too many runs during the season can often prevent them from running to the best of their ability. A significant statistic with regards to this race is that all but two of the last ten winners had no more than three runs during the season prior to coming here. This time around only Gevrey Chambertin, Dell’Arca, and Westren Warrior fall foul of this stat.
In terms of age there is no doubt that six-year-olds have been the group to follow in recent years, having accounted for six of the last ten winners of the race. Surprisingly, only one runner falls into this category which boosts the chances of Yala Enki.

In races as competitive as this one, we often find that horses in form tend to carry that forward. A first two finish last time out is something that seven of the last ten winners have had in common which bodes well for the quintet of Gevrey Chambertin, Un Ace, Bivouac, Ibis du Rheu and Westren Warrior who all arrive on the back of positive results.

The final factor to take into account is the betting and although favourites have a fair record (4/10), it is still best to focus on those towards the head of the market. In the last decade, only three winners have gone off at double-figure SPs so this is not a race in which to take a chance on a long shot. At the time of writing, Ibis du Rheu and Bivouac head the market at 4/1 with Westren Warrior, Yala Enki and Brother Tedd all available at single-figure prices.

Shortlist

IBIS DU RHEU – 5/6

Yala Enki – 5/6

Conclusion

When we put all our trends together there are two runners who come out with a near perfect profile. Yala Enki ticks most of the boxes and is the only horse in the field to fit the six-year-old trend. Venetia Williams’ French import opened this campaign with a dominant performance in an Exeter novice hurdle, defeating subsequent winner Duke Des Champs by sixteen lengths. He found the Grade 3 “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle too hot at Haydock last time out, finishing a well beaten fifth, which is the only trend he falls foul of.

However, the preferred member of our shortlist is IBIS DU RHEU who finished runner-up in eye-catching style at Newbury on his most recent start. He steps up in trip on the back of that effort and it would be no surprise to see this lightly-raced performer go close once again. He heads the shortlist by virtue of only narrowly missing the age trend as a five-year-old. He looks likely to sit towards the head of the market and will bid to emulate the success of his half-brother, Saphir Du Rheu, who landed this contest in 2014

Advice

IBIS DU RHEU – 1pt win @ 4/1 (General)

 
2.55 Chepstow – coral.co.uk Money Back If Your Horse Falls Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase.

Courtown Oscar is likely to be popular in the market having won four of his last five starts. His latest win over the bigger obstacles at Wetherby saw him win with eight lengths to spare in comfortable fashion and despite a further 14lb hike in the weights, he looks likely to go well again here. The heavy ground should be absolutely fine for this seven-year-old and as he sits towards the foot of the weights in this contest which could prove important in testing ground.

Rebecca Curtis has her string in much better form than she did when Racing Pulse made his first two starts for the yard and if he can get back to the best of his hurdling form, he would have a say here. Johnny Burke has been booked to ride the seven-year-old and the combination of cut in the ground and the step up to 3m could see this former Irish point winner find significant improvement.

However, they could have their work cut out with SUBTLE GREY who made all to win at the second time of asking over fences in December. His trainer reported that he was in need of the run when beaten on his chasing debut and the return to 3m shouldn’t hold any fears for the seven-year-old. It was heavy ground when he won at Carlisle in December so there is reason to think he will handle conditions on Saturday and he has been raised just 2lb for that success. Barry Geraghty is an eye-catching jockey booking and I think this lightly-raced chaser is the one they have to beat.

Advice

SUBTLE GREY – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

  
3.10 Kempton Park – The William Hill – Bet On The Move Handicap Chase

Depending on the weather, the field here could be reduced to seven runners with Masters Hill and Chase The Spud both looking to run in the Welsh National if Chepstow gets the go ahead. Nevertheless, this still looks to be a competitive contest with a number of the field looking to bounce back after disappointing recent runs.

Le Reve is one such animal as he ended last campaign with a fine third in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and looked a very nice stayer in the making. However, he never got involved at Ascot on his seasonal debut and was always behind at Cheltenham a fortnight later. He does return to calmer waters here but still has a lot on his plate under top weight.

Another with plenty to prove at present is Grandads Horse who has been well below form since landing the odds at Doncaster just over a year ago. He has been a consistent performer for some time but struggled with a 7lb rise on the back of his latest victory. He is back down to 2lb below his last winning mark now and could be primed for a resurgence back to form sooner rather than later. It would have been nice to have seen a bit more from him in the London National, though a mistake might have put paid to his chances there.

Shangani can be included in that bracket despite him showing a return to form when second on his seasonal debut at Taunton. Since then, he has failed to complete in two starts, unseating when weakening out of it at Newbury before slipping up when coming under pressure at Kempton. He is weighted to be competitive, with a handy 5lb taken off his back by Charlie Deutsch, and has a decent record at Kempton but his overall profile isn’t entirely convincing and he has never won over this far before.

Therefore, KRUZHLININ gets the vote on his seasonal debut and first start since joining Philip Hobbs. The nine-year-old was highly progressive a couple of years back and ran respectably when tenth in the 2014 Grand National. He has only had two starts since that effort, finishing seventh in the Becher Chase before putting in an improved performance over the sticks, finishing runner-up behind subsequent American Grand National winner Dawalan at Market Rasen. He arrives here off his last winning mark and, if ready to go first time up, is fancied to run a big race.

Advice

KRUZHLININ – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Coral, William Hill)

  
3.45 Kempton – William Hill – Home Of Betting Handicap Hurdle.

Our final race of the day is a tricky handicap over two miles and the weights are headed by Stars Over The Sea who contested three Grade 1 contests last Spring, beaten just five lengths at Aintree in April. He has been dropped 6lb in the weights since the beginning of the campaign on the back of two below par efforts but the return to a flat right-handed track should suit him better than the last two venues he has graced. In truth I think he would prefer the ground to be a little quicker than it is here but he handles it and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to form and hit the frame here.

There are a couple of hat-trick seekers in the field but the one that is of most interest is Graeme McPherson’s Hollywood All Star who made light work of his rivals for the second time in December. The seven-year-old looked to have plenty in hand last time and the handicapper responded accordingly by raising him another 10lb in the handicap. He is clearly on a steep upward curve and with ground conditions in his favour once again, he should run his race although he may one or two too good for him.

The one I am going to go with is James Bethell’s LAST SUPPER who ran well for a long way at Aintree last time but found the 2m4f trip stretching her stamina reserves. She was still in front between the final two hurdles in a race which has worked out well and there is every reason to think she can be competitive off her current mark down in trip. She races here off 1lb higher than her last winning mark and Joe Colliver takes a useful 3lb off her back. I fancy she can get into a nice rhythm out in front and she could be tough to pass so is worth taking a chance on in a wide open race.

Advice

LAST SUPPER – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)

[robertob]

2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)

Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes. 

He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.

The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip. 

Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.

This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.

Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.

Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.

Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.

The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish. 

If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago. 

So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa. 

De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me. 

Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.55 Kenilworth: MR 85, 1.600m

An open enough looking contest, though you have to give the advantage to the three year olds, given they receive and handful of weight and are seemingly more talented than the majority of older horses in this contest. 

The two top rated older horses Mountain Master and Waiting For Rain are dropping in the ratings though and if they run up to their best have excellent chances to feature. 

However the 91 rated 3yo colt Fifty Cents is very much favoured to take the step up in trip in his strides. He's a fair chance on pedigree and seemed to stay 1.400m thoroughly the last time. 

I very much like the other three year Speed Limit, though, who has already won over course and distance and stayed 1.60om very strongly when getting off the mark in a maiden the last time. 

His opening mark off 83 is stiff enough, but Speed Limit has the assistance of top drawer Anthony Delpech today. That in itself seems a vote of confidence. At 7/1 he is the value in the race in my mind. 

Speed Limit @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts Winner