gonxalo2000 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I don't know is that's the correct thread for this post....fell free to move... rules: I'll calculate correct score using poison distribution and compare odds with BF. Just league matchs on leagues with 10 or more games played. Initial bank will be 1000 units and each bet will take 3% bank. Odds under 10 to minimize layabilitie. I don't pretend to win every bet, but make a profit by paying under probabilitie. I'll start with a match in less than one hour because i think my first pick will fail ;( DATE HOME AWAY SCORE % ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK 30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55 1000.00 GL. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Almost! DATE HOME AWAY SCORE PROB ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK 30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55 W 4.25 1004.55 30/11/2015 NAPOLI INTER 2-1 5.05 19.81 10.00 30.14 3.35 Probability of 2-0 is 6.61% ...15.12 odds but odds of bf was 9.8, just 0.2 from 2-1 with a prob, of 5.05%, Maybe a better pic, let's see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 'Poisson' rather than 'poison'. Very different meanings but I acknowledge your excellent English. I'm a fan of this distribution of tweaked to fit your expectation of the real distribution. gonxalo2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 18 minutes ago, muppet77 said: 'Poisson' rather than 'poison'. Very different meanings but I acknowledge your excellent English. I'm a fan of this distribution of tweaked to fit your expectation of the real distribution. i poisoned before starting !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 as i specpted... first day 1 lost 30/11/2015 NAPOLI INTER 2-1 5.05 19.81 10.00 30.13 3.35 L -30.13 974.12 1/12/2015 CONCORDIA VIITORUL CONSTANTA 1-1 7.84 12.76 7.40 29.22 4.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 The match 1-1 but hasn't finish yet. I'l post next one waiting for a goal in this one. 1/12/2015 CONCORDIA VIITORUL CONSTANTA 1-1 7.84 12.76 7.40 29.22 4.57 W 4.27 978.39 LORIENT NICE 1-0 2.75 36.37 9.40 29.35 3.49 if i lose the bet, i'll change stakes later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Next one... LORIENT NICE 1-0 2.75 36.37 9.40 29.35 3.49 W 3.27 981.66 RED STAR FC 93 METZ 1-0 5.68 17.61 8.20 29.45 4.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Today results updated. 1/12/2015 CONCORDIA VIITORUL CONSTANTA 1-1 7.84 12.76 7.40 29.22 4.57 W 4.27 978.39 1/12/2015 LORIENT NICE 1-0 2.75 36.37 9.40 29.35 3.49 W 3.27 981.66 1/12/2015 RED STAR FC 93 METZ 1-0 5.68 17.61 8.20 29.45 4.09 W 3.82 985.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 FC PORTO B FARENSE lay 1-0 @ 7.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 2/12/2015 FC PORTO B FARENSE 1-0 8.64 11.57 7.20 29.56 4.77 W 4.46 989.94 2/12/2015 LECH POZNAN WISLA KRAKOW 1-0 6.72 14.89 7.80 29.70 4.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Sorry, french 1 plays before... 2/12/2015 BASTIA BORDEAUX 0-1 2.75 36.35 8.60 29.82 3.92 I will use stake as if poland game finish well.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 sure.. first i calculate goal average for and againt (local and away) then i calculate strength: attack and defence: attack strengs = avg goal for / avg league gol for... same for defence. local goal expectancy = home attack strength * away defence strenght * avg home leage goal for away goal expentancy = home defence strength * away attack strength * avg away leage gol for i'm taking it from my excel ... i hope this is accurate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Good luck in today matches: 2/12/2015 LECH POZNAN WISLA KRAKOW 1-0 6.72 14.89 7.80 29.70 4.37 W 4.08 994.03 2/12/2015 BASTIA BORDEAUX 0-1 2.75 36.35 8.60 29.82 3.92 W 3.67 997.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 tomarrow ... 3/12/2015 DOLCAN ZABKI MIEDZ LEGNICA 1-1 6.16 16.23 8.20 29.93 4.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 (edited) Edited December 3, 2015 by gonxalo2000 duplicate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 you're right, specially on weekends. only league matches. leagues with 10 or more games played. if there are too many i choose leagues with more games played.... i've got a spreadsheet. i paste table and matches and it calculate prices...just cut and paste matches for that league then i look at betfair prices many many games are "well" paid.... i calculate 7 as price and betfair is offering 6.80 - 7.20 even those i choose the % of difference between calculated price and db is between 5 and 10% .. so, calculation is not so bad...that's what i spect of proffit. but, if you ask me if i look teams, who's injured, cards, etc... the answer is NO. just matematical calculation. if anyone has any idea to develop the selection or calculation metohod ...you're wellcome! again, sorry by my english Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 i'll send it later with a PM. Where is the money section!? Sorry.... don't understand. 12/03/2015 DOLCAN ZABKI MIEDZ LEGNICA 1-1 6,16 16,23 8,20 29,93 4,16 W 3,89 1001,58 12/03/2015 FC ASTRA GIURGIU FC VOLUNTARI 1-0 5,16 19,37 7,60 30,05 4,55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 3/12/2015 FC ASTRA GIURGIU FC VOLUNTARI 1-0 5.16 19.37 7.60 30.05 4.55 W 4.26 1005.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 (edited) 3/12/2015 READING QPR 1-1 8.36 11.96 7.60 30.18 4.57 Edited December 3, 2015 by gonxalo2000 LAY 1-1 not 1-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 ufffff 3/12/2015 READING QPR 1-1 8.36 11.96 7.60 30.18 4.57 W 4.27 1010.11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 12/04/2015 LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW URAL 1-0 4,11 24,33 6,40 30,30 5,61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 4/12/2015 LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW URAL 1-0 4.11 24.33 6.40 30.30 5.61 W 5.25 1015.36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Next match.. 4/12/2015 SLOVACKO TEPLICE 1-1 0.70 143.62 8.00 30.46 4.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Last game for today... 4/12/2015 IPSWICH MIDDLESBROUGH 1-1 3.75 26.67 7.40 30.58 4.78 stake is calculated as if previous match is a win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 4/12/2015 SLOVACKO TEPLICE 1-1 0.70 143.62 8.00 30.46 4.35 W 4.07 1019.43 4/12/2015 IPSWICH MIDDLESBROUGH 1-1 3.75 26.67 7.40 30.58 4.78 W 4.47 1023.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 did i lost one post?? i thought i already post it 5/12/2015 BRIGHTON CHARLTON 1-0 4.95 20.20 7.00 30.72 5.12 5/12/2015 BURNLEY PRESTON 1-0 9.83 10.18 7.00 30.86 5.14 5/12/2015 LEEDS HULL CITY 0-1 3.77 26.53 7.20 31.00 5.00 5/12/2015 ROTHERHAM FULHAM 1-1 3.58 27.90 7.60 31.14 4.72 thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 last one was rotherdam -wolves... sorry 5/12/2015 BRIGHTON CHARLTON 1-0 4.95 20.20 7.00 30.72 5.12 W 4.79 1028.68 5/12/2015 BURNLEY PRESTON 1-0 9.83 10.18 7.00 30.86 5.14 W 4.81 1033.49 5/12/2015 LEEDS HULL CITY 0-1 3.77 26.53 7.20 31.00 5.00 W 4.68 1038.16 5/12/2015 ROTHERHAM WOLVES 1-1 3.58 27.90 7.60 31.14 4.72 W 4.41 1042.58 thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 6/12/2015 MALLORCA ALBACETE 1-1 4.97 20.10 7.60 31.28 4.74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 6/12/2015 FREAMUNDE LEIXOES 1-0 6.63 15.09 6.80 31.41 5.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 8.2 ... it's a bit high... maybe not a good selection... 6/12/2015 BENFICA B SPORTING CP B 1-1 5.15 19.43 8.2 31.56 4.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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