cambridgeshire hcap saturday

[richard-westwood]

its been a quiet year relatively speaking as far as big race coups go .....normally ill latch onto something in the derby or other big races but hasnt really been anything special ........not that they always win ....thats always in the lap of the gods ...  poor start or trouble in running and even if youve got the best horse by far your race can be over before it starts .....but sometimes horses shout at you to be backed ...I.e ...ive run this cambridgeshire thru the computer .....

third time lucky   99.31 

polar forest       99 18 

portage       99.11 

 

portage is around 10/1 2nd fav for this so sets the benchmark nicely .... . but these two horses above him are currently 50/1 !!  .. and 25/1 !!! ....    that was the first thing I noted .... secondly ....top rated is trained by richard fahey ... .hes a sly man ....been mopping up races all season and suddenly has slipped one in the big race ???..   I ask myself would it be a shock if fahey won the cambridgeshire ? ....definately not given his season ..    ...more digging ...third time lucky won on the bit last time in a style suggesting hes well ahead of the hcapper and has only been raised 4 lbs which doesnt seem enough ........he is currently nestling at bottom weight .....another positive as light weights have historically done well in this ......  polar forest is also not to be ignored ....hasnt the sparkling profile of the top rated but has been running well and only about 4lbs above his best ever run so not out of it by any means ....certainly no 50/1 shot ....... yes its an open race ...currently 35 runners if they go .......obviuos traffic problems ....draw? ....  but looking at the ratings and profile ......I cant help asking myself ......has xmas come early ??........ always a chance he might not run at this early stage but there has been money for top one ...40-20 with will hill ......so im going to take some 25/1 while its available  .......  shot to nothin really ....won 15 points yest so ill just split it between the two and see what happens 

 

third time lucky  10 pts win  25/1 bet365 

polar forest  5 pts win 50/1 betvic 

[BillyHills]

Very difficult race, good luck Richard!