flat racing sat 27 jun

[richard-westwood]

irish derby qualify 100.78 jack hobbs 100.71 highland reel 100.23 jack hobbs was a strong derby winner and will be extremly difficult to beat ....but im all about value ..and I cant escape the mega value in qualify ....can she beat the colts ?? ....shes def up against it but she has her ground .....and conditions are ideal .....she recieves the 3 lb allowance and that might just make all the diff if it comes down to a head to head .....at 12/1 against this 4/5 fav im in .....chances too for highlsnd reel but stepping up in dist against seasoned foes theres no value in 5/1 .. ..battle of the sexes !! ..just hope 8 runners hold or will spoil race a little with ew gone qualify 10 pts ew 12/1 paddyp

[Toast]

Thankfully, Aiden o Brien has finally realised that Highland Reel is his number 1 middle distance 3yo this season and runs him over his correct trip. Took the 7s ew at ladbrokes earlier in the week ( after timing I know) hoping that there would be 7 runners or less. Qualify won the oaks running on through beaten horses and Ryan Moore stopping riding yards from the line, whilst Jack Hobbs has won a sand maiden and a handicap. Comfortably beaten in the Dante and if the derby winner is a genuine group 1 horse, then being beaten 4l only puts JH as a group 2 nag. I stand by my Epsom summary that JH will be best when given a 5 week plus rest between races...

[BillyHills]

Scoop 6 Races – Saturday 27^th June This week in the Tote Scoop6 we have a roll over of £484,621 after Royal Ascot and Ayr proved too difficult last Saturday. The six races come from Chester, Windsor and Newcastle with the highlight the Northumberland Plate (3.45 Newcastle). Leg 1: 2.35 Newcastle A tricky 6f sprint to kick off with, trainer Richard Fahey took it last year and he saddles course and distance winner Arctic Feeling. The third twelve months ago Kimberella makes much more appeal after two solid runs recently and looks sure to be thereabouts for Dandy Nicholls. Top weight Demora is back down to his last winning mark and shouldn’t be overlooked while Bushcraft has won four of his last five races and looks the most progressive horse in the line up. Selection: Kimberella 14/1 BetVictor (Bushcraft) Leg 2: 2.45 Windsor A class 2 handicap which Godolphin won last year with a 5yo carrying 9st7lbs, Elhaame fits that profile exactly so has to be considered. Had just the one run for the new connections and is expected to step up on his 4^th at Newmarket last time. Gothic will be popular for Sir Michael Stoute after bouncing back to form at Epsom last time but has had a few chances now. The likely improvers are Tamasha and the Andrew Balding trained Field Of Fame who’s yard won this in 2013 with Rawaki. Selection: Elhaame 6/1 >Betfair (Field Of Fame) Leg 3: 3.05 Chester Another tough looking 3yo handicap over 7f and no course winners in the field, which is surprising for a Chester race. Steve Prescott trained by Richard Fahey has ran here six times without winning but now steps up to this trip for the first time and could go well although has been a touch unlucky with the draw again. Enlace comes here after winning at Goodwood last time for Mark Johnston but didn’t seem to act on the track on her only other outing here which is a little worrying. Tim Easterby does well here with his runners at Chester and overall I like Sakhee’s Return who has a perfect draw on the inside, he won well last time and looks to have more to offer despite his hike in the weights. Selection: Sakhee’s Return 11/4 Paddy Power (Steve Prescott) Leg 4: 3.10 Newcastle Fourteen runners declared for this handicap and although it looks an open race history will tell you it has often gone to a fancied runner. Zarwaan carries top weight and has done little wrong so far this season. He was only beaten 4 lengths in the Victoria Cup and was 6^th in the Lincoln. This is easier and comes here after bypassing Epsom and Ascot and must go close. Russian Realm went close last time and is knocking at the door while course and distance winner Shared Equity is very consistent and should be placed once again. Selection: Zarwaan 6/1 >Betfred (Shared Equity) Leg 5: 3.45 Newcastle A very competitive renewal of the Northumberland Plate and the top weight Clever Cookie sets the standard. He has won his last two races in pattern company but is 23lbs higher now then when he won his last handicap. Quest For More heads the betting but is creeping up the handicap and needs to improve once again. Paul Hanagan is on Gabrial’s King; he’s had three starts for Richard Fahey now and looks to have a decent chance on his fourth in the Chester Cup. Owner Marwan Koukash has four runners and this looks to be his best opportunity. At bigger prices Buthelezi and Max Dynamite are worth keeping an eye on. Selection: Gabrial’s King 10/1 Coral (Max Dynamite) Leg 6: 3.55 Windsor The final leg is a 6f handicap and a tricky puzzle for punters as only one favourite has won this in the last ten years. Huntsmans Close was well-backed last week at Royal Ascot but bolted on the way to the start and now comes here for compensation. He won the Ayr Silver Cup last season and is going the right way. Course and distance winner Boomerang Bob was a bit unlucky last time here when he ran into an inform horse, he’s been raised 4lbs for that which looks a bit harsh but has a good draw and goes well here. Of the others Gamesome and Seeking Magic wont be far away. Selection: Boomerang Bob 8/1 William Hill (Huntsmans Close)

[richard-westwood]

235 newc see the sun 98.98 meshardal 98.87 bushcraft 98.65 bushcraft is fav here around 4/1 so that makes the top two outstanding value with quotes of 10/1 and 16/1 ....!!...this is a tough race but I think both have been underestimated especially see the sun whos recent form is better than it looks .....good value nonetheless so a play for me see the sun 5 pts win 16/1 will hill meshardal 5 pts win 10/1 lads

[Custom Cut]

The Curragh 3.35 Gordon Lord Byron has been well off the pace this year and I doubt Tested will appreciate a furlong shorter. Balmont Mast and Russian Soul are solid horses but I think Line of Reason shows the best form, even under 3 pound penalty, having recently won a listed race by a couple of lengths and should like conditions. Line of Reason win 4/1 bet365 4.45 War Envoy on form is by far the best here and several of his opponents carry a penalty. There may be no pace on show which could harm his chances, but I just can't find anything to oppose him with. War Envoy win 6/4 Coral 5.50 Painted Cliffs looks a really progressive AOB horse, having beaten off the challenge of a Weld newcomer who stretched a remarkable 12 lengths clear of the third in a 6 furlong race. Can't believe the horse is 6/1. Painted Cliffs win 6/1 betfred 6.30 The two I fancy here have had the price gone already, while I Backed Highland Reel earlier in the week I missed out on Qualify, but I still like their prices. I think people get a bit excited about derby form. 3 lengths down shouldn't translate into odds on for me. Qualify surely isn't 4th choice for O'Brien, surely something is going on about Colm retaining the ride. He's plenty capable anyway. Won the Oaks absolutely fair and square and I don't see why the Curragh won't suit. She was pricewised at 12/1, but 10/1 or better is still value for me, and hopefully the 8 runners hold for each way purposes. Highland Reel really impressed me at Chantilly with the way he kept on so strongly. Perhaps it'd be nice to see the field strung out there a bit more but his selection as first choice here means a lot. Qualify 10/1 e/w Skybet Highland Reel 9/2 win betfred

[Jimmy2shoes]

irish derby qualify 100.78 jack hobbs 100.71 highland reel 100.23 jack hobbs was a strong derby winner and will be extremly difficult to beat ....but im all about value ..and I cant escape the mega value in qualify ....can she beat the colts ?? ....shes def up against it but she has her ground .....and conditions are ideal .....she recieves the 3 lb allowance and that might just make all the diff if it comes down to a head to head .....at 12/1 against this 4/5 fav im in .....chances too for highlsnd reel but stepping up in dist against seasoned foes theres no value in 5/1 .. ..battle of the sexes !! ..just hope 8 runners hold or will spoil race a little with ew gone qualify 10 pts ew 12/1 paddyp

Jack Hobbs never won the Derby richard.

[richard-westwood]

Jack Hobbs never won the Derby richard.

I meant runner ........was too busy concentrating on other runners ......I stand corrected ... rating is based on his place so thats the important bit .....too busy thinkin ...ooooo look thats a big price ...lol

[robertob]

4.10 Curragh: Summer Fillies Handicap, 7f Three year old Military Angel should go close. She was unlucky the last time at Naas in Listed company and may be ahead of her mark. But she is small in size and this is not exactly a small field. Fighting for position is not her strongest asset, so I oppose her at a price that looks fair, but nothing more. Colour Blue is a consistent filly. She should run her race. On a fair mark at the moment but others are better handicapped. Slipper Orchid may struggle of top weight, while Duchess Andorra is very progressive but has to overcome a 10lb rise in the mark for her most recent success at Gowran Park. That day she beat Dermot Weld's Sparkle Factor in second. This lightly raced four year old makes plenty of appeal. She should come on from her seasonal debut at she travelled really well and got just bit tired in the end, beaten by a fit and well handicapped rival. She came well clear of the rest of the pack nonetheless and is only one pound higher today. She loves the ground and the trip, has a CD win on her CV and looked to win a Listed race at Killarney last year, when she travelled much the best but found the 1m trip a bit too far in the end. She looks progressive and well handicapped here today. Sparkle Factor @ 13/2 Coral - 5pts Win ------------ 4.45 Celebration Stakes (Listed), 1m Nice little field, really competitive race. Looking very much forward to see how it pans out. I guess you know what you get with most of these runners. That says War Envoy is a poor favourite in my mind. Yes, he was probably well in at Ascot the other day, but now back in Listed class, he isn't certain to follow up by any means. I like progressive Tennessee Wildcat, but feel a track like Leopardstown suits him much better than the open, wide space at the Curragh. Bolger's Flight Risk proved his 50/1 shocker in a Group 3 earlier this year was no flash in the pan. While Sovereign Debt may find this trip at this track beyond him. Though quick conditions should suit. The one unexposed and potentially underestimated individual is Shepherd's Purse. He was a bit unlucky in a hot Group 3 at Leopardstown nine days ago when the route on the inside was clearly not the one to glory. He had only five starts to date, won on his debut in taking style here at the Curragh last season, was subsequently far from disgraced when 4th behind Cappella Sansevero in a Group 3 but didn't handle soft ground in his next two outings. Quick ground today is very much what he wants. He has seemingly trained on and physically improved from two to three and travelled strongly the last time until meeting in-running trouble. He's a very big runner today with the weight for age allowance - if he stays the trip. It's far from given on pedigree. Although not impossible. At 15/2 he's a price I feel is too big and I give him the benefit of the doubt. Shepherd's Purse @ 15/2 Betfred - 5pts Win ------------ Handicap (3YO plus), 1m Plenty of interesting runners. Favourite Hasanour is expected by many to run a big race. He probably will do so but has to overcome a big hike in the mark. Others appeal more to me. I like Ger Lyons's Trinity Force. Reportedly he had a wind op over the winter which seemed to have helped as he looked good over 7f this year. Ground and trip may suit. Bolgers maiden winner is another interesting prospect. But for a price I select Burn The Boats to go well. He has a strong record over this trip and needs fast ground and a fast pace to see him to best effect. He's 2lb above his last winning mark but has shown some fair form this year. He was certainly not advantaged at Dundalk on his penultimate start when he travelled much the best but got a run too late. He wasn't disgraced in Listed company at Navan when seen the last time either. It's a tough race, others might be better handicapped and he heeds things to fall right. But at 20/1 Burn The Boats is certainly a price to have an interest in. If he gets a clear run then I expect him to be bang there when it matters. Burn The Boats @ 20/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win ------------ 5.50 Curragh: Irish Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f Despite half the field trained by Aiden O'Brien, this is one of the better line-ups for the Irish Derby in recent years. Epsom Derby runner-up Jack Hobbs comes here as the clear favourite and takes all the beating if he can bring his A game to the plate today. Storm The Stars was third at Epsom, though a long way behind Jack Hobbs. He finished the race well enough, but you wonder if he isn't more of a Leger type? He would need a soft lead today to have a real chance to win I feel. Giovanni Canaletto was fourth in the Derby, he ran okay but not as good as many would have hoped. Though the big race may came a bit too soon for this inexperienced full-brother to Ruler Of The World. He remains with potential for improvement. His comeback run when runner-up to subsequent Riblesdale winner Curvy looked disappointing back in the day but turns out to be very strong form. In my eyes he's Ballydoyle's number one today. However a shorter price is stable mate Highland Reel. Yes, I was eagerly awaiting his seasonal reappearance, hoping he could develop into the superstar he promised to be after exciting performances as a juvenile. He didn't quite fulfil these hopes. A poor French Guineas run, followed by a much improved runner-up effort in the French Derby. Nonetheless I feel he is not as good a three year old as he was a juvenile and I fail to see how the 12f trip will bring out any more improvement. Dermot Weld's charge Radanpour is a fairly progressive individual. Though his dead heat in a listed event three weeks ago doesn't inspire me. You'd be disappointed if he'd come out on top today. Same goes for Kilimanjaro, who's simply not good enough. Surprise Oaks winner Qualify is a different proposition. She is really progressive and I don't think her Epsom success was a fluke. She is that good. She needs a fast pace and then stays all day long. Not sure if these conditions are given today, but she can't be underestimated. But the value lies with Giovanni Canaletto in my mind. He has a lot to find with the odds-on favourite on the Epsom Derby form, but it is far from unlikely that there is more improvement to come from him. He is a lovely looking individual, raw but inexperienced. Epsom could bring him along nicely for the Irish Derby, so at 12/1 I side with him. Giovanni Canaletto @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts win ------------ 7.15 Curragh: Handicap (60-100), 2m It was utterly impressive the way Sang Tiger made up ground late at Leopardstown recently when he had clearly the run of the race against himself. He came from a near impossible position to score cosily in the end. ? He's five pounds higher today but not too exposed yet, so he may be able to overcome this new mark. Quick ground is what he likes, and despite an ultra competitive field, he has as good a chance as anybody here and is a rather big price. Sang Tiger @ 10/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win

[richard-westwood]

235 newc see the sun 98.98 meshardal 98.87 bushcraft 98.65 bushcraft is fav here around 4/1 so that makes the top two outstanding value with quotes of 10/1 and 16/1 ....!!...this is a tough race but I think both have been underestimated especially see the sun whos recent form is better than it looks .....good value nonetheless so a play for me see the sun 5 pts win 16/1 will hill meshardal 5 pts win 10/1 lads

gutted see the sun 2nd ....bushcraft won

[BillyHills]

Scoop 6 There were 108 correct selections each winning £5,837.80

Place Fund: There were 2,374 correct selections each winning £30.70

[Custom Cut]

The Curragh 3.35 Gordon Lord Byron has been well off the pace this year and I doubt Tested will appreciate a furlong shorter. Balmont Mast and Russian Soul are solid horses but I think Line of Reason shows the best form, even under 3 pound penalty, having recently won a listed race by a couple of lengths and should like conditions. Line of Reason win 4/1 bet365 4.45 War Envoy on form is by far the best here and several of his opponents carry a penalty. There may be no pace on show which could harm his chances, but I just can't find anything to oppose him with. War Envoy win 6/4 Coral 5.50 Painted Cliffs looks a really progressive AOB horse, having beaten off the challenge of a Weld newcomer who stretched a remarkable 12 lengths clear of the third in a 6 furlong race. Can't believe the horse is 6/1. Painted Cliffs win 6/1 betfred 6.30 The two I fancy here have had the price gone already, while I Backed Highland Reel earlier in the week I missed out on Qualify, but I still like their prices. I think people get a bit excited about derby form. 3 lengths down shouldn't translate into odds on for me. Qualify surely isn't 4th choice for O'Brien, surely something is going on about Colm retaining the ride. He's plenty capable anyway. Won the Oaks absolutely fair and square and I don't see why the Curragh won't suit. She was pricewised at 12/1, but 10/1 or better is still value for me, and hopefully the 8 runners hold for each way purposes. Highland Reel really impressed me at Chantilly with the way he kept on so strongly. Perhaps it'd be nice to see the field strung out there a bit more but his selection as first choice here means a lot. Qualify 10/1 e/w Skybet Highland Reel 9/2 win betfred

As was worried War Envoy done in by no pace at all but ran no sort of race anyway. Didn't like Moore's ride, he had nil chance by the 2 furlong pole while still on the bridle as they went an absolute crawl but maybe the horse has to be treated a certain way by the jockey, like many of Aidan's. Painted Cliffs wins at 7/1 not often one of my drifters wins. How well have Aidan's 2 year olds run this month? Good to take the profit into the derby so I can enjoy it.