Royal Ascot 2015 ~ Thursday 18th June

[BillyHills]

Thursdays Action; [TABLE=class: views-table cols-5, width: 650]

[TR=class: even] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]2:30pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]2 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£80000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]Five furlongs [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]3:05pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£75000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]One and a quarter miles [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]3:45pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 Fillies [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£160000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]One and a half miles [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]4:25pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Gold Cup (Group 1) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]4+ [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£375000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]Two and a half miles [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]5:00pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 Colts & Geldings [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£120000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]One mile [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]5:35pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The King George V Stakes (Handicap) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£75000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]One and a half miles[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes Judging by Jim Bolger's comments, and by the fact he made sure that her 1000 Guineas win was strongly run, I absolutely think this horse can benefit from the 4 furlong step up. My only concern is that this is somewhat of a diversion from the original Bolger plan to bring her straight to the Irish derby but this is by far the most likely winner. Curvy downed Canaletto last time, but Canaletto flattered that form by improving significantly for Epsom. Indeed AOB said after the defeat to Curvy it was very unlikely Canaletto would go for the derby. Wedding Vow ran a cracker to finish second to Legatissimo (and thrashing subsequent g3 runner up Carla Bianca) but a shocker not to win the Lingfield Oaks trial. Given Moore has chosen Curvy I can't fancy this horse, JOB has done very little on the second string this year. Of the shorter priced British horses Pandora seems OK but they all seem a bit average. Entertainment is the big priced alternative for me. Finished 7 and a half behind Crystal Zvezda (or 4 behind the runner up) but you can add around a length and a half to that defeat as Doyle weighed in 2 pounds light. However, the horse was well supported in the betting that day and hung all over the place, and never really got settled. Going up 2 furlongs can only help as she stayed on really well at the finish. Her previous run was 6L down to Diamondsandrubies on ground softer than ideal, form which I felt was very much franked by Diamondsandrubies's outrageously unlucky 4th in the Oaks, who had a tough job to simply remain on her feet. Pleascach 5/6 win BetVictor, Entertainment 33/1 e/w William Hill 4.20 Gold Cup Whether or not Forgotten Rules runs I don't see him being value on the ground he'll encounter. While I think he's a class act I didn't really like his reappearance, most of the horses there needed the run and his only challenger, Answered, found the trip 2 furlongs too far. Don't think there's any star in the rest of the field so I'm going to look to Aidan O'Brien. He's won this 6 of the last 9 runnings so knows what it takes. Ryan Moore likely had a choice and chose Kingfisher over Simenon, who's not a bad animal himself. I thought it was telling that immediately after his Leopardstown win the Gold Cup was identified as the target for Kingfisher. Largely used as a pacemaker last year, Kingfisher needed his first run back before scoring in listed company at Leopardstown. Only won by half a length but travelled like an absolute dream, with less than 2 furlongs left and several lengths to make up the inexperienced Donnacha O'Brien finally popped the question and once he got going he absolutely ate up the ground and probably had more in hand than shown in the bare result. With Moore on and reaching his seasonal target, I think he can pull plenty of improvement out and has a good shot of landing this race. Kingfisher 12/1 e/w Paddy Power

[richard-westwood]

brittania stakes 5.00 capel path 98.99 sohaffy 98.96 quick defence 98.89 carry on deryck 98.87 mutarakez 98 80 what a difficult race ?.....this ones got me stumped ....my heart is saying capel path is the one to be on but sohaffy ran a very good time lto ..... both those are 8 and 10/1 .......but mutarakez the fav is a good benchmark in 5th ......meaning the two outsiders come on deryck (33/1) and quick defence (20/1) must hold sound ew chances .....?? ....factor in the draw and normally you want to be drawn 6 off either rail ....if 33 run then that goes for come on drryck (7) and quick defence (33) ...the outsiders !!!....really cant pick tbh ....so comical or not with 33 runners im going to use clever staking and take all four ......gettin a profit is after all the name of the game ..... capel path 4 pts win 8/1 bet365 sohaffy 3.2 pts win 10/1 bet365 quick defence 1.7 pts win 20/1 bet365 come on deryck 1 pt win 33/1 bet365 approx 25 pts profit any winner ....happy with that

[robertob]

Royal Ascot - Gold Cup What a race in prospect - even if turns out that favourite Forgotten Rules isn't going to run - which looks increasingly likely given the fast ground. My short-list is long because if you want, you could make a serious case for at least half the field. It's that strong a renewal of this prestigious stayers contest. Of course if Dermot Weld decides to run Forgotten Rules, regardless of the ground, you have to give this lightly raced five year old a big chance. He's such an exciting prospect in this division, unbeaten in four starts, and already a Group 2 winner over 2 miles. However the fast conditions are a serious concern, and I'm prepared to take him on for this reason. So let's check in on all the other runners. Bathyrhon: Excellent prep run in France last month. Runner-up in Group 1 Prix Du Cadran last season over 2m 4f. So stays the trip and best form came on sound surface. One would think the quick ground isn't an issue. Has a turn of foot and can be ridden any way. Classy prospect. Biographer: Has some fair staying form. Second in Long Distance Cup last season. But overall profile suggests he's likely to fall short in this class. Havana Beat: Career best in Dubai Gold Cup over 2m earlier this year, followed up with another good performance at York. Stamina a big concern over this trip and long way beaten in this race last year. Kalann: Fair Irish stayer. Runner-up in last years Doncaster Cup but should find this here way too hot. Simenon: Done well in the Gold Cup in recent years. Consistent performer and can't be underestimated. But lacks a change of gear which is required to win, and therefore likely to fall short yet again. Tac De Boistron: Classy stayer, multiple Group 1 winner. Would be major player if the ground comes soft. That is unlikely, though, and will make life difficult for him. Forever Now: Tried 2 miles twice this year. Ran okay without setting the world alight. Hard to fancy. Kingfisher: Well bred individual. Runner-up in 2014 Irish Derby. Aimed towards staying contests this year and did well to win prep race at Leopardstown a fortnight ago. Definite player and likely to relish this test but merit of form is debatable. Mizzou: Top class prospect. Won Group 3 over 2 miles at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance. He looks a real stayer and will be better the further he goes. Still lightly raced, he is open to any amount of improvement and quite clearly a key player in the Gold Cup. Scotland: Zero chance. Trip To Paris: Improving stayer. Will relish the trip. Won Chester Cup earlier this year and slightly unlucky when last seen. Conditions will suit and big chance if this race isn't one too many after a very busy campaign in recent weeks. Vent De Force: Exciting prospect. Big, bold, raw. A stayer. Bit unlucky on his seasonal comeback at Ascot when runner-up behind Mizzou. But made no mistake the next time at Sandown when ridden from the front. He's a scopey galloping sort, one who has plenty of stamina on both sire and dam side. Will love the conditions. Windshear: Good fourth in last years Leger. Has been disappointing on most occasions ever since. Verdict: Regardless of whether Forgotten Rules is going to post, this is an ultra-competitive contest. That says it may well be worth to side with the improving individuals. Mizzou is one of those. He looks a real stayer and must have a prime chance. However he's a rather skinny price and I fail to see why Vent De Force is twice his price. This Vent De Force didn't get a clear run when these two met at Ascot earlier this year but he made no mistake the next time. He looks a very exciting prospect, is sure to relish trip and ground and is one I feel should be a shorter price. I like to see Kingfisher to improve again. He's a very interesting contender, but I question his form and others have stronger credentials. Trip To Paris is one of those. I feel though, he has done so much this season already, he might run out of gas this time. That won't happen to French raider Bathyrhon. He'll stay every inch of the 2m 4f trip. He has top form to offer and is a very big price in my book. Connections expect a big run, as long as he handles the preliminaries of parade and the large crowd. Vent De Force @ 8/1 Coral - 5pts Win Bathyrhon @ 10/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[BillyHills]

Royal Ascot – Thursday https://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting-all-the-latest-tips-for-ladies-day-at-ascot 2.30: Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (5f) Ladies Day starts off with the Norfolk Stakes and one of the bankers of the entire meeting for some in King Of Rooks. The Richard Hannon youngster was beaten on his debut but has since won two races in terrific style. He beat Buratino by 5 lengths at Sandown on quick ground and that form has been franked twice by the runner-up including his win in the Coventry on Tuesday. The main danger has to be the favourites stable companion Log Out Island. Owned now by Godolphin and an impressive winner here at Ascot in April. He could be anything and it will be a big surprise if anything outside the front two win this. Richard Hughes must be gutted he cant ride either of them! Selection: King Of Rooks 5/6 Skybet 3.05: Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) (1m2f) Two ways to look at this contest being only a Group 3, progressive sorts stepping up from handicaps or horses who have been aiming too high now being eased in grade. Time Test fits the former, Roger Charlton’s colt took a big step forward on his first run as a 3yo and landed a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 93. It was also his first run at 10f so he should still be on the upgrade and wouldn’t have too much to find with most of these. The top one Maftool won a Group 3 at Meydan but has since been well beaten in the UAE Derby and the French Guineas. He will appreciate the drop in class but has to carry a penalty. Peacock has a very solid look about him; he was second to the Derby winner Golden Horn in the Fielden Stakes before winning a Listed contest last time and could be worth chancing in this company and would be a popular winner for the Queen. Selection: Peacock 9/2 Betway 3.40: Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2, Fillies) (1m4f) The last time the favourite won this was when Jim Bolger won it in 2011 with Banimpire. He saddles a hot pot this year in Pleascach who has recently changed hands and will now run in the blue of Goldolphin. She won the Irish 1000 Guineas in grand style and now steps up to 12f for the first time although she had won over 10f at Naas in soft ground. The Irish have a strong hand in the Ribblesdale this year with Curvy and Wedding Vow having place chances also and the best of the home runners could be Pamona. She was a staying on third at Newbury over 10f last time and could well improve for the trip. Selection: Pleascach 5/6 >BetVictor 4.20: Gold Cup (Group 1) (2m4f) The most prestigious race of the week is the Gold Cup and it’s a good one for punters with six out of the last eight favourites obliging. This year’s jolly is Forgotten Rules trained by Dermot Weld who is unbeaten in just four career starts. It’s hard to believe he was winning a Punchestown bumper on his debut only 14 months ago and ended up winning the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day here last October. He has since won his prep race at Navan and has loads of scope for further improvement and will be hard to beat here. Of the others I like Vent De Force who could attempt to make the pace and Simenon who should be thereabouts and wont mind the ground which might catch a few of his opponents out and looks the value bet in the race. Selection: Simenon EW 14/1 Ladbrokes 5.00: Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (1m) Probably the most competitive 3yo handicap of the season and a race full of progressive young horses. Difficult to know where to start but the last seven winners have all carried less than 9st so maybe that’s a clue. The most popular winner would be Capel Path owned by the Queen and he was a decent second here last time over 7f. Only a pound higher and drawn well in stall 23. Also drawn well is Portage the Godolphin runner. He looked alright last season and was eased down on his first start of the season and there is definitely more to come from him. Of the low numbers Malaf might be worth a second look, he won well last time and gets in here with just 8st6lbs. Going against the trends would lead you to Mutarakez, when he won on his first start trainer Brian Meehan immediately said he was a Britannia horse and jockey Paul Hanagan has chosen him ahead of a few others. Selection: Mutarakez 8/1 >William Hill 5.30: King George V Stakes (Handicap) (1m4f) The finale on Ladies Day is the King George V handicap; another race similar to the Britannia as far as the winners profile is concerned. We have a dozen last time out winners in the field and trainers Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston are well worth noting as they have terrific records in this contest. Stoute has three runners and Ryan Moore has picked Dissolution, he was a very good second to Time Test last time out and looks fairly weighted on that form. Mark Johnston runs Yorkidding who has won twice this season but was beaten off his current mark last time and needs to improve. Maiden winners have a decent record and the Balding runner Scottish won well last time and looks the type to run well in a contest such as this and just gets my vote overall. Selection: Scottish EW 11/1 >Paddy Power

[robertob]

Tercentenary Stakes, 1m 2f Excellent renewal for this Group 3. Favourite Time Best is a very exciting colt. He won a good Handicap at York recently; couldn't done that in any better fashion. He's lovely bred and has all the right credentials to win this race. Only slight concern is the fast ground which he never encountered before. Main dangers should come from Peacock and the only filly in the race, Irish raider Bocca Baciata. The former one is a Paco Boy son and has improved nicely this year from a fine Kempton run on his seasonal debut, over a runner-up effort behind subsequent Derby winner Golden Horn, to an authoritative Listed race success at Newmarket when upped in trip last month. He stays 10f and acts on quick ground. Good chance. The Irish filly won a really good 10f race at Navan earlier this year, which is extremely strong form. She lacked the speed in the Irish 1.000 Guineas afterwards when dropped in trip, though. But she travelled really well that day and back up in trip must be taken seriously. Although it's never easy against the boys. Couple more could feature, like progressive Disegno or even Mustadeem, who may find this race more suitable than when second behind Peacock in a trappy affair. One shouldn't forget to mention the Dermot Weld's runner Don Camillo. Lightly raced and progressive on the All-Weather, he won a Dundalk maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty. He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series, though he didn't take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish the fast conditions at Ascot. With further improvement to come, he's a very lively outsider in this field. Don Camillo @ 33/1 Stan James - 5pts Win ------------ Ribblesdale Stakes, 1m 4f Irish 1000 Guineas winner Pleascach is a warm favourite for this Fillies' Group 2. She steps up markedly in trip, though is expected to take to it without a problem. She won over 10f earlier this year and the Guineas was run as a real test of stamina, which suited her. She'll take plenty of beating if she runs to her official rating. Second favourite Pamona was a bit unlucky in a Listed event recently. But she doesn't strike me as a filly who wants much further than 10 furlongs. The same goes for progressive Curvy, who was able to beat a well fancied stable mate the last time. Aiden O'Brien's Wedding Vow has been a disappointing favourite in the Lingfield Oaks trial. She didn't get the run of the race there and seemed to lack focus in the closing stages. Blinkered for the first time she could be much sharper here. But she is still a maiden and her form is far from special. If you want to take on the top notch Bolger filly - and I am prepared to do that - you better don't underestimate John Gosden's charge Gretchen. Only a one time raced maiden winner to date, one should really watch her debut run at Newmarket, where she made a very big impression on me. She was green - naturally - slowly out of the gates too, but then settled well and made gradually progress. I liked the way she went through the gears travelling on the outside to increase the heat step by step. She was only pushed out, never saw the stick, but won a useful maiden in authoritative style in the end. This filly looks exceptional from a physical point of view and is equally bred to be a star; she is open to any amount of improvement. John Gosden must think allot of her to throw her in at the deep end here, but if she can overcome inexperience, she must be one who is able to give the favourite something to think about. Gretchen @ 11/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win ------------ Britannia Stakes, 1 mile As always in these big Handicaps, the race may be decided where the pace is coming from. It's hard to break it down in this field I've to admit - it could go either way. Two horses stand out from a value perspective in this huge field: Certainly it's Mr. Halford's lightly raced Portage. I missed the 14's but still think 12/1 is rather big - as long as he gets a run; he'll be hard to beat by any horse here. I come to this rather bold conclusion because I believe this lad is extremely well handicapped. He earned glowing reports from his trainer after winning a Curragh maiden second time out towards the end of last season. It's pretty strong form but he was always sure to improve for the step up to 1m. He reappeared at the Curragh over 1m in a hot Handicap in May, taking on some older, experienced and seasoned horses. He travelled really well, made eye-catching progress but never got a run on the inside and was eased eventually. It's rare to see in Ireland, but here the Handicapper has been lenient. He dropped Portage by 2lb! Of course I might be wrong but to me this individual looks a good 10 to 15 pounds better and could easily turn out to be a Stakes performer. Second horse to highlight is another Godolphin charge: Emirates Airline. He absolutely demolished a 1m maiden field at Chelmsford on his seasonal debut and followed up at Newmarket in a good Handicap over 10f with a fine performance. He was very keen early on - that's why the hood is added this time - and was let lose by his jockey soon after the start. He just got outstayed in the dying strides. The drop in trip back to 1m will suit him I feel, so should the likely fast pace in this race. It should keep him settled and occupied throughout. I fancy him to outrun his big price tag. Portage @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts Win Emirates Airline @ 33/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[beaker1]

2.30 Ascot – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Well the form of KING OF ROOKS could hardly have worked out any better with the horse he treated with distain at Sandown three weeks ago bolting up in the Woodcote Stakes before following up in the Coventry yesterday. A couple of the horses further back (Steady Pace and Areen) both ran big races in the Windsor Castle Stakes yesterday evening. Some might say that he was unsuited by Ascot on debut but I’m not sure there is much in that theory as a lot of Richard Hannon’s two-year-olds have come on significantly for the run this year. In terms of winning the race I find it difficult to look past Richard Hannon’s colt although taking 5/6 in a 2yo race at Royal Ascot is not really my thing. With such a short-priced favourite there may be some value in the each-way market with most firms offering a quarter of the odds for the first three home. One colt who impressed me on debut was James Given’s Jazz Legend who despite not attracting much pre-race support, won well at Haydock at the end of last month. A £170,000 purchase at the Doncaster breeze-up sales in April, the ground would have been slow enough for him on his first start and there is reason to think he will be better suited by faster ground here. The form of that run isn’t great but he was fast away at Haydock before quickening up in the closing stages and I think he offers some appeal at around the 16/1 mark. we had a bit of luck with Zebstar when he won his maiden at 25/1 on the Sunday of the guineas meeting. Another product of the breeze-up sales, he was tough in the closing stages to hold off the challenge of Richard Hannon’s Dheban in the run to the line. The form in behind is starting to work out well with four horses having come out and won subsequently. The reports of this colt’s exploits on the gallops since his debut run have been very positive although they should be treated with a large serving of salt. He was in the London sale on Monday evening but was withdrawn as the owners feel they may not get another chance at Royal Ascot and he could also run well at around 16/1. 3.05 Ascot – Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) There may have been a stage earlier in the season when we might have questioned the strength of the Ballydoyle team this year but the first day of Royal Ascot underlined the horses that they have at their disposal. Here they saddle Cape Clear Island who would have finished much closer that seventh in the Prix du Jockey Club had he not been shuffled back through the field on the turn for home. He is less likely to encounter that sort of trouble here and having already turned in good efforts in Group company this term, he looks set to run well again here. A slight concern for me would be that Ryan Moore has opted to ride Sir Michael Stoute’s Disegno but I still fancy him to go close. He will have to overcome a wide draw in 14 but looks to have solid each-way claims at around the 10/1 mark. The betting market often serves as a good indicator in this race with eight of the last ten winners having been sent off no bigger than 8/1. During that time we have had five winning favourites including the last two winners of the race. The colt who looks likely to fill that position this year is Roger Charlton’s TIME TEST who looked to be finally fulfilling his potential when winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury in May. His two-year-old form is also starting to look a bit better with Latharnach, who beat him at Sandown having finished second in the St James’ Palace yesterday afternoon. Obviously this is the first time he will have stepped into Group company and he will need to improve but he definitely improved for the step up in trip last time and can run another big race tomorrow. In terms of the most likely danger, it is difficult to discount the chances of Richard Hannon’s Peacock who would have been three from three this season but for running into the subsequent Derby winner Golden Horn in the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket. He had no problem stepping up to ten furlongs last time and ran on strongly in the closing stages to beat another of today’s rivals Mustadeem by one and a quarter lengths. He obviously runs in the colours of The Queen which means he may be of added interest in the market and he is definitely the one to fear for favourite backers. 3.40 Ascot – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) The Irish have taken three of the last four renewals of this race and they look to have another strong hand this year with Jim Bolger’s PLEASCACH currently sitting at the head of the market. A winner on her final start at two, she has improved massively since stepping up in trip this season. She was beaten on her return to action in April but there was no doubting the winner when she ran away with the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas next time. Despite dropping back in trip in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time, she got the verdict by half a length, after which her trainer suggested she would be taking on the boys in the Irish Derby. If that is the case then he must think a lot of her to run her here the week before and on all known form she looks the one to beat. David Wachman’s Curvy also looks likely to play a role in the race having turned over subsequent Derby fourth Giovanni Canaletto in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes last month. The filly is clearly progressing nicely having won on her last three visits to the racecourse and her Group 3 success has earned her a tilt at this higher level. On official figures she has 8lb to find with Pleascach and I think that is the sort of improvement she will need to show to be competitive year. Having said that the extra couple of furlongs should suit and she could be the one to pick up the pieces if the favourite fluffs her lines. At a bigger price, John Gosden’s Gretchen makes some appeal having made a winning debut at Newmarket last month. The form is starting to work out well with the runner-up Forever Popular having come out and won since at Chepstow. Obviously this is quite a jump from maiden to Group 2 company but she is related to some smart performers including Duncan and Samuel, so there is reason think she could have that sort of potential. Her trainer is not usually one to run horses in these races for the sake of it and she could run better than her odds of 10/1 suggest. 4.20 Ascot – Gold Cup The underfoot conditions could play a big part in this race with the participation of a couple of runners Tac De Boistron and Forgotten Rules dependant on the ground being safe. The latter in particular could be important as he currently heads the market at 5/2 having won his first four starts under rules. He stayed on well to win the Long Distance Cup over two miles at Ascot in October and having won well on his return to action when conceding weight all round, he looks of serious interest. He sets a good standard despite being in the infancy of his racing career and if he runs he is likely to be in the shake-up. I do like the chances of Hughie Morrison’s Vent De Force whose form ties in closely with a few of today’s runners, in particular Mizzou. The pair clashed in the Sagaro Stakes here in April and despite Luca Cumani’s colt getting the verdict that day, Vent De Force would have finished a lot closer had he not met trouble in running with two furlongs to run. He subsequently went and made all in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown, which has proved to be a good trial for this race over the years. The draw hasn’t been overly kind to him in stall 12 but he looks an improving stayer and looks a solid each-way bet at around 8/1. However, in an open renewal of the race it might be worth taking a chance on the French raider BATHYRHON who looked as good as ever when winning impressively at Longchamp at the end of last month. I am not too concerned that he ran below form in Meydan earlier this year as the race was not run to suit. He was perhaps a shade unfortunate not to win the Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp in October when he was given a lot to do by Christophe Soumillon. The trip should be no problem for him and as long as he doesn’t get too worked up in the preliminaries; I think he is overpriced at 10/1 and could cause a small upset. 5.00 Ascot – Britannia Handicap (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE) There are several strong trends which we can apply to this race, the first of which centres around official ratings. The bracket to focus on is horses rated between 87 and 97 and they have accounted for nine of the last ten winners of the race. In terms of this year’s field this means that the top eleven as they appear on the racecard as well as the bottom two will need to defy a strong pattern. Another important factor is recent form and it is interesting to note that nine of the winners in the last decade had finished in the first five on their most recent outing. The fact that only Fifteen Love in 2008 has managed to defy this trend in recent years would ring alarm bells for the nine runners who miss this trend including the likes of War Envoy, Dancetrack and Portage who all need to improve on their latest performances to have any chance of going close here. In competitive handicaps such as this one, the race can sometimes go the way of less exposed horses which have had fewer runs. When we look at the recent patterns, all but two of the last ten winners had run no more than twice during the current season. When looking at this renewal of the race, there are sixteen horses in the field that fall at this hurdle including the likes of Bow And Arrow, Sahaafy and Sacrificial. In terms of weight, the ceiling appears to be 8st 13lb as only two of the last ten winners carried more than this to victory. This means that once again the top eleven in the racecard are up against it, apart from Make It Up who has the benefit of his jockey’s 7lb claim to take him below the desired threshold. The draw can often play a big part in these sorts of races and in the Britannia, it marginally favours the higher numbers as six of the last ten winners came from stall 15 or higher. Some of the fancied horses to be drawn low this year are Mutarakez, Malaf and Yorkshire Dales whilst it is not impossible to win from a low draw, they look to be up against it. The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and this hasn’t been the best race for following the market leaders, with only three winning favourites in the last decade. It is also a race in which outsiders have run well with four horses finishing with SPs of 20/1 or upwards. At the time of writing, Mutarakez heads the betting so supporters of his will be hoping that he can buck the trend. Shortlist CAPEL PATH – 6/6 Bartel – 6/6 Quick Defence – 5/6 Conclusion We have two horses who match all six of the trends here with preference for Sir Michael Stoute’s CAPEL PATH, who finished second over seven furlongs here on his most recent visit to the racecourse. Prior to that, he got off the mark on his final start at two and whilst he has run well this season, he has yet to get his head in front. Having said that, he should appreciate the return to a mile and he has been drawn favourably in stall 23. He sits towards the bottom of the weights and with plenty of trends going in his favour, he looks likely to give a bold showing. Ed Vaughan’s Bartel also comes out favourably having won on his last two starts including on his return to action at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. He too matches all six of our trends and having only had four runs to date in his career, he should be open to further improvement. He is also drawn on the stands side in 30 and looks a likely contender for the frame. There are a host of horses who only miss one of our trends but the one of particular interest is Sir Michael Stoute-trained Quick Defence. He had been knocking on the door on several occasions before getting his head in front at Leicester a few weeks ago. Having had three starts this season he misses that particular trend but otherwise looks to have a lot going in his favour and could run well at a big price. 5.35 Ascot – King George V Stakes (Handicap) The final race on day three is one of the more open handicaps and there are several improving horses that are in the infancy of their handicap careers. Once such colt is Sir Michael Stoute’s Dissolution who got off the mark over nine furlongs in maiden company before following up on his handicap debut on his return to action in April. He was equipped with a visor for the first time at Newbury on his latest start and ran well for a long way, but in the end was no match for the progressive Time Test. The handicapper put him up 6lb for that effort as the front two drew well clear of the rest and he looks likely to give another bold showing here. Luca Cumani’s King Bolete is also worth mentioning having notched the second win of his career at Newbury last month. The colt has only had four starts to date and despite going up 9lb for his latest win he should be open to further improvement. An expensive purchase as a yearling, the penny is now starting to drop with him and Cumani has a habit of doing well with this progressive type of horse. He will likely sit towards the head of the market and you can see why given his improving profile. However, the winner could come from the yard of Michael Bell in the shape of TAPER TANTRUM who was far from disgraced when finishing third at Epsom a couple of weeks ago. The colt had been off the track for nearly a year prior to that but ran on well from the back to chase home the winner. He got shuffled back at Epsom and this more conventional track should suit him a lot better. He is also entitled to come on for the run physically and having won two of his three starts as a juvenile, he should be able to improve on his current mark of 85. He has been drawn well in stall 5 and if he can step forward from Epsom, I think he will go very close at around the 10/1 mark.

[richard-westwood]

305 ascot peacock 99.13 cape clear island 99.04 time test 98.89 ew value here is cape clear island .....very very unusual to see an o brien horse top 3 rated and available at 14/1 ??.....maybe im missing somethin but just looks incredible value to me ...... cape clear island 5 pts ew 14/1 pp

[arsenalfh]

305 ascot peacock 99.13 cape clear island 99.04 time test 98.89 ew value here is cape clear island .....very very unusual to see an o brien horse top 3 rated and available at 14/1 ??.....maybe im missing somethin but just looks incredible value to me ...... cape clear island 5 pts ew 14/1 pp

Coolmore have let Moore take the ride on Stoute's horse so he may not be fancied by connections. Looks cracking value on your ratings though.

[richard-westwood]

230 asc log out island 98.98 king of rooks 98.67 ) log out island looks a good bet on paper ....far quicker than anything in the field to date he has strong claims if the fav doesnt improve too much ...11/4 looks very good value log out island 10 pts win 11/4 lads

[robertob]

King George V Stakes, 1m 4f Surprisingly many of these 19 runners look vulnerable from a pure stamina point of view. Only four distance winners in the field, which one could rather easily oppose on form, while the rest tries the trip for the first time in most cases and only very few seem actually suited by the 1m 4f distance. That says two individuals stand out for me in terms of the improvement like to come for the new trip. First one is Dartmouth - he is out of a Group 3 winning Galileo mare, so should be capable of getting 12 furlongs. He finished 4th in the legendary 10f Sandown Handicap which made Jack Hobbs a temporary favourite for the Epsom Derby. He subsequently won a Handicap himself; same place, same trip. Positive tactics worked and he just held on to win in a photo. He's far from flashy but looks one who'll be better with time as well as when stepping up in trip. His revised mark off 83 seems more than fair. In fact it might underestimate his true potential given his sexy breeding. As an alternative, but equally sure to improve for 12 furlongs, I select Maxwell. He's not a quick horse by any means, but has been progressive this season, starting with a success on the Wolverhampton playtrack over 9f. He followed up at Salisbury on his Handicap debut when upped to 10f. Both times he was going away in the final 100 yards or so, clearly indicating his superior stamina reserves. There is indeed enough stamina on his dam side to support the visual impression and I expect him to improve for the new trip. A mark off 86 doesn't need to be the end for him. ? Dartmouth @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win Maxwell @ 20/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[arsenalfh]

3:05 Ascot - Tercentenary Stakes Time Test followed Roger Charlton's stable star Al Kazeem by winning the London Gold Cup and the vibes are similarly strong about this one making it to the top. He was very impressive last time and if the bookies stick their necks out in the morning it would be a hard bet to resist. I do believe Nafaqa has been seriously overlooked in the market though at 20/1. He was a Listed winner and Group 2 placed as a 2 year old but gave himself no chance by running keen on his first two starts this year. However he settled much better last time at Newmarket when beaten 1.75L by Peacock giving 4lbs so in theory he's weighted to reverse the form with the second favourite in this. He also looked slightly outpaced heading down into the dip before staying on strongly when meeting the rising ground so the nature of Ascot should be more up his street. Hanagan prefers Mustadeem but Dane O'Neill is perfectly capable of riding this one to the win. Nafaqa - 1pt each-way @ 20/1 Bet365

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4:20 Ascot - Gold Cup I reckon Forgotten Rules will probably run with the taps going on tonight but he's still well worth taking on. The ground won't be ideal and Simenon looks primed for a big run. Unlike the favourite he'll love the fast surface and was 4th in this last year and 2nd the year before in stronger renewals. His reappearance will put him spot on for this and James Doyle is a great booking. Kingfisher won with a lot more in hand than the result suggested last time at Leopardstown but he can race quite fresh and this trip may stretch him at the age of 4 if the occasion gets to him. He did chase home Australia in the Irish Derby though and looks well on the up but I get the feeling this might be a year too soon. Simenon - 1pt each-way @ 12/1 Bet365

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5:00 Ascot - Britannia Stakes There's a few I like in this including the well supported Portage who was a bit unlucky and wouldn't have like the soft ground on his reappearance at the Curragh. James Doyle took it easy on him and like many of Halford's runners you can expect him to come on for that so he should be spot on tomorrow. He's very highly rated having held a Guineas entry and should be much better than his current mark of 91 but he's only had 3 starts and that might count against him tomorrow. Amazour has bolted up on both his starts this term showing a decisive turn of foot and more is promised being a well bred son of a mare who placed at Group 2 level. He steps up to a mile today but showed no signs of stopping over 7f last time at Haydock and as a son of Azamour out of a mare who stayed an extended 1m 3f this trip should bring further improvement. He travels strongly in his races and has shown no fear of quickening through tight gaps or making space for himself so he looks ideally suited to a big handicap over the straight course. Another who looks in with a chance is the Stoute trained Quick Defence. This one has been steadily improving before everything seemed to click when he won a maiden by over 4L at the start of the month when being dropped back down to a mile. He's another well bred type as you would expect being owned by K Abdullah and looks like your typical Stoute improver who is surely much better than his current rating. He obviously has a good bit to find on form but now that the penny has seemed to drop he looks an interesting prospect. Azamour - 1pt each-way @ 25/1 Ladbrokes Quick Defence - 1pt each-way @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

[Soi Bongkot]

Today i have 2 horses and this is information from someone very well connected in the racing game Bet 1 Time Test 15.05 Ascot Im on at 11/4 Bet 2 Dissoloution 17.35 Ascot Im on at 5/1

[Bathtime For Rupert]

3.05 Ascot - 2pts win Peacock @ 11/2 (Hills) The favourite's short here and won very well last time out at Haydock but they went hard there and part of me thinks the race fell in the lap of the closers. Got a big chance of winning again but at the price, I'm siding with the Queen's representative. Has got rock solid form in the book and beat a few of these last time out at Newmarket. There's no obvious reason why he won't hold that form - keeping on bravely to assert late in the day. This track should suit and the form of his second to Golden Horn now looks very good. Has probably achieved just about the most of any of these and looks sure to be hunting them up at the death, 3.40 Ascot - 2pts win Curvy @ 7/1 (Bet365) Again the short price favourites are being taken on today by me and I really like the chances of David Wachman's filly here. Has won her last three, including when seeing off Giovanni Canaletto last time - who subsequently finished 4th in the Derby. This filly picked up again when challenged and has been finishing well over slightly shorter trips. I see no reason why there wouldn't be more to come over this 1m4f trip and at the prices looks the value call. 4.20 Ascot - 1pt win Simenon @ 12/1 (Hills) Was 4th in an excellent renewal of this race last year and was second in 2013. Has won here twice over extreme trips and therefore there are zero concerns with conditions here. I thought he shaped really well last time when running behind Vent De Force - moving well and looking like he'd deliver a challenge before flattening out late on. The way he went for the majority of that race was very promising and with fitness now on his side I think he's a very big price. 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win Portage @ 9/1 (Hills) Has been well-supported for this into favourite but I can see why. He's lightly-raced and shouldn't be judged on his reappearance run when not getting much of a run and ended up beaten five lengths. That will have blown away the cobwebs and looks in with a very good chance off this mark based on his 2 year old runs. Was a hugely promising second to an AP O'Brien runner on debut before getting off the mark in a 21-runner maiden next time out. Was very strong at the finish there in a big field which bodes well for today's task. Pulled a little way on with a horse now rated 93 there so on the face of it, with that run under his belt, running here off 91 with conditions to suit puts him in with an excellent chance if he's on the right part of the track. 5.35 Ascot - 1pt e/w Keep In Line @ 28/1 (BetVictor) Is far from the flashiest in this line up but it's a competitive race and one at a price could pop up. Had to work very hard to narrowly prevail at Ripon last time, doing nothing quickly but edging on late in the day. A small field wouldn't have been ideal with a slow gallop and the horse he beat was a rock solid yardstick rated in the 80s. The pair pulled well clear from a horse who had previously shown promise and the way he's been shaping suggests this hike up 3f in trip will really suit. He's not the quickest but does gallop so this track ought to suit and the stamina on his dam's side gives a lot of hope now tackling middle distances. He's off a mark of 87 but I think he can prove better than that under more suitable conditions so if getting some luck could run well.