Royal Ascot 2015 ~ Friday 19th June

[BillyHills]

Fridays Action; [TABLE=class: views-table cols-5, width: 650]

[TR=class: even] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]2:30pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Albany Stakes (Group 3) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]2 Fillies [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£70000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]Six furlongs [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]3:05pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 Colts & Geldings [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£185000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]One and a half miles [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]3:45pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£375000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]Six furlongs [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]4:25pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Coronation Stakes (Group 1) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 Fillies [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£375000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]Old mile [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: even] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]5:00pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3+ [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£75000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]One and a half miles [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd, bgcolor: #EEEEEE] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-time]5:35pm[/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-display-title-1]The Queen’s Vase (Listed) [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-age]3 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-prizefund]£85000 [/TD] [TD=class: views-field views-field-field-race-distance]Two miles[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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3.40 Commonwealth Cup Limato and Hootenanny were both monsters as 2 year olds to such an extent that you have to wonder about training on. After Limato's latest run and Candy's comments, it's hard to back Limato as the favourite. Anthem Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy showed form as good as those 2 last year and I think they've trained on. Tiggy's first run this year was very disappointing, but for a horse that clearly hates a mile she did extremely well to finish third in the 1000 Guineas. Anthem Alexander did really well to win on bottomless ground when most thought she needed the run anyway and it looks like she's trained on, but it was Tiggy Wiggy who help the upper hand at the end of last year and seemed to get better every race, and I will very happily back her. Tiggy Wiggy win 7/1 Betfair Sportsbook 4.20 Coronation Stakes 3 1000 Guineas seconds and a 1000 Guineas winner go head to head. The piece of form I don't like is the French one, simply because the ground was a little softer, though perhaps I'm haunted by Make Believe's performance. You could say Irish Rookie is overpriced but I don't see what will improve her past Ervedya. I can't separate Lucida and Found, both were excellent seconds in their Guineas and they were closely matched behind Cursory Glance as 2 year olds. The typical O'Brien improvement from one run to another would suggest Found can go better, but Lucida really fell out of the gates at Newmarket and I think she'll also improve for the run, so being the bigger price I have to back Lucida. Lucida 7/2 win William Hill

[BillyHills]

https://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting-six-of-the-best-from-ascot-s-friday-card Royal Ascot – Friday 2.30: Albany Stakes (Group 3, Fillies) (6f) The female version of the Coventry Stakes opens up proceedings on the Friday card at Royal Ascot and trainer Mick Channon is the man to follow having won it three times since 2003. He saddles Jersey Breeze who won well last time out at Leicester over 5f, she looks like she will improve for the step up to 6f and wont be far away. Richard Hannon has been talking up the chances of Illuminate who beat one of their more fancied stable-mates at Salisbury on debut. After a slow start she really got the hang of things and was quite impressive in the end. American trainer Wesley Ward has two runners; Joel Rosario rides Back At The Ranch so I’m guessing he’s the first string and has to be respected. Selection: Illuminate 7/2 Skybet 3.05: King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (1m4f) Never many runners in this contest but the quality usually makes up for it and has been labelled the Ascot Derby before now. I’m not sure we have the strongest renewal but trainers Stoute and Gosden who have such a good record in the race are represented once again. Sir Michael’s Stravagante will probably start favourite; he won at the Epsom Derby meeting and steps into pattern company for the first time. Pat Smullen will ride him as Ryan Moore has been claimed for Ol’ Man River. The O’Brien horse is the highest rated runner in the field but has been hammered twice this season already; he was last in the Guineas and beaten 22 lengths in the Dante and now turns to the tongue-tie. Mr Singh and Festive Flare are others to consider in an interesting race. Selection: Stravagante 9/4 >Betfred 3.40: Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (6f) A brand new race for 2015 and an excellent addition to the meeting. The Commonwealth Cup was established to give the 3yo sprinters something to aim for and they have rewarded the track with a really good turnout. Last years Windsor Castle winner Hootenanny has come over from the States and looks sure to try and make all. That may not suit the likes of Tiggy Wiggy from the Hannon yard who also likes to get on with it. She was not disgraced in the Guineas but will much more at home back over 6f. Limato lost his unbeaten record last time out at Haydock when he was second to Adaay but should enjoy the quicker conditions here and is fancied to gain his revenge and looks the one to beat overall. Selection: Limato 9/2 Coral 4.20: Coronation Stakes (Group 1,Fillies) (1m) Decent renewal of the Coronation Stakes and Found trained by Aidan O’Brien will be fancied to get her head back in front after two narrow defeats so far this season. Last time out she was only beaten half a length by Pleascach who’s trainer Jim Bolger interestingly saddles Lucida. Lucida ran a terrific race in the Guineas to finish second to Legatissimo and that is probably the best piece of form on offer. The top rated filly in the race is the French raider Ervedya who won the French Guineas last time out. She was beaten by Found last season in the Prix Marcel Boussac so needs to have improved and might find the ground a bit quick here. Selection: Lucida 100/30 >Bet365 5.00: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (1m4f) In the absence of a Stoute runner Mark Johnston is the trainer with the best record in this handicap and he saddles two last time out winners in Watersmeet and Sennockian Star. The former has gone up 26lbs since scoring at Chelmsford in March and has won four races this season. Sennockian Star is much better over 10f and has run below par every time he has attempted this trip. The two Godolphin runners have inside draws and of the two I like Gold Trail who has been on the AW this year but did run well here last season for a long way in the King George V Stakes. Arab Dawn and Igider are others worth a second look in a wide-open contest. Selection: Gold Trail EW 12/1 >William Hill 5.35: Queen’s Vase (Listed) (2m) The final race is a stamina test over two miles for 3yo’s and we have a hot favourite in Aloft trained by Aidan O’Brien who won this with Leading Light in 2013. Favourites have a good record in the Vase winning five out of the last renewals and the other two were strongly fancied runners. Aloft is very interesting, he hasn’t ran for over 200 days; he was last seen in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster when he was second to Elm Park, furthermore he has never gone beyond a mile so this is a big ask. He is well ahead on official ratings and I don’t think he would be coming here if he wasn’t ready to do himself justice. Great Glen and Fabricate are two rivals who could take advantage if things don’t pan out for the jolly. Selection: Aloft 15/8 Paddy Power :ok

[richard-westwood]

230 asc jersey breeze 98.98 illuminate 98.80. spanish romance 98.79 tough race this with no end of improvers but jersey breeze just looks huge value ew here .....ran a cracker lto ...and mick channon usually lays one out for this and this looks a typical type .....16/1 is far too big so im playing ... jersey breeze 5 pts ew 16/1 pp

[robertob]

King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) Ol' Man River is hugely talented but something has been amiss this year; tongue-strap is fitted now. He looked like as horse with breathing problems, so this gear can help sometimes. But I'm concerned, and not prepared to back him at short odds. Favourite Stravagante was seriously well handicapped at Epsom, steps up in Grade here and has surely more to offer. Not so sure, though, whether he really wants this trip. Ballydoyle's second string Father Christmas is seriously well bred but not for 12f. That says he looked slow over shorter. Festive Affair and Balios may not appreciate the step up in trip. Magic Dancer should have the stamina but also has loads to find on form. I give John Gosden's Mr Singh another chance. He looked potentially smart when winning a hot Handicap at Newbury. Subsequently disappointing at Goodwood, which was a strange race. He was green that day, and the form looks good with the winner a subsequent Derby third. He needs pace and fast ground. Second point is given, first one unclear. Trip looks fine. Mr Singh @ 12/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win ----------- Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) Couple of fascinating runners here. Obviously speedy Hootenanny is well fancied. Won at Royal Ascot last year and proved to stay a mile at the Breeders Cup. How good he's coming back as a three year old dropping back in trip, we'll see. His prep run against very poor opposition didn't tell us anything. Tongue tied for the first time, I'd be slightly concerned. Another clash between Anthem Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy. Both with good form this year. I feel the Hannon filly is the slightly better one. Her 1000 Guineas run is a massive performance, given the sectionals she clocked. She might be fighting with Hootenanny for the lead though. Let's see how that works out. I restrict myself to one bet in this race and that has to be Home Of The Brave. Mentioned him as an unlikely eye-catcher after the 2000 Guineas. He failed to stay the mile which is no surprise given his pedigree but ran with loads of credit. He confirmed his excellent Listed success over 7f on his seasonal reapperance when he clocked a very fast time. He run the last three furlongs in hand stopped 33.80s and did that easily - this lad has serious speed! Drawn towards the rail in box two, have to wait and see how it pans out with so much pace on the other side. But I've no concerns about the in trip and think there is a huge performance due. Home Of The Brave @ 18/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win ----------- Coronation Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) People makes excuses for Found; a bit too many for my liking. This is tougher than the Irish Guineas in my mind and she is a silly price in my book. The French filly Ervedya was a second behind her last year in a big Group 1, but ridden differently now and more mature, I'm sure she's the better one. She won the French 1000 Guineas in utterly impressive style. Ground is the issue, though. Nothing in her form nor pedigree suggests that she wants it fast. That's the opposite for Bolger's Lucida. Her runner-up effort in the 1000 Guineas was a monster performance. She fell out out of the gates but travelled well, made a bit too much too early and therefore hit the front too early. Nonetheless she went just down to Legatissimo, no disgrace to finish 2nd, well clear of the rest of the field. The winner in contrast had the run of the race, covered all the time, with gaps opening at the right time. The sectionals confirmed how strong Lucida's run was. On another day when things are not working to the textbook for the winner, she's going to prevail easily. If she can follow on from the Guineas, here with conditions to suit, she's hard to beat. Lucida @ 7/2 Ladbrokes - 5pts Win ----------- Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2 Handicap) Dabadiyan is a huge price and rightly so judged on his recent form - but less than 12 month ago he was still able to be competitive in Listed company. Before that he had a rather decent stint at Meydan. He was competitive in Handicaps of big marks and even finished with loads of credit in two Group 2's. Quick ground and 12f seems ideal for him judged on his best. A mark of 100 looks still high enough but if he can find back to form he's able to run a race. I expect him to overcome his draw and to be very prominent. Since he stays a bit further as well he might be still there when others are really hurt. He might as well finish stone last. Dabadiyan @ 66/1 Ladbrokes - 2.5pts E/W ----------- Queen's Vase (Listed) Very hard to know who's going to stay this trip, However I'm pretty certain that Star Rider won't lack the stamina for 2 miles; she might however lack class. But lightly raced she is, done well to win a Chelmsford maiden over 13.5f, found the drop in trip not what she needs at Goodwood subsequently. On rating she has loads to find, but there is stamina all over her pedigree. Star Rider @ 66/1 Ladbrokes - 2.5pts E/W

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2.30 Jersey Breeze really strung them out last time and looked like improving for the extra furlong. Mick Channon does well with 2 year olds and in this race. Would be keen on Laxfield Road if Rosario was on. Jersey Breeze 16/1 e/w skybet 3.05 Balios looks the most likely winner here, only 2 runs, ran very well at listed level last time, shaping as if it will improve for the extra 2 furlongs and could come on for the run. Mr. Singh a good alternative but Balios really strong for me. Balios 5/1 win Paddy Power 5.00 Watersmeet here for Mark Johnston has won 4 of 5 this year and arguably threw the one loss away by hanging left. Keeps on pulling out more in handicaps and I'm a bit surprised the horse isn't favourite. Johnston's other horse, Sennockian Star, has a bit doubt about the trip but the horse is in good form, 2 from 3 now and should peak at this event. Races off 97 and has won off 101 in the past. At a decent price in a race without depth I'll forgive the trip doubts. Dashing Star is always thereabouts in these events, with his best effort yet last time, and Ryan Moore could get that bit extra out of her. Dashing Star 12/1 e/w Boylesports, Watersmeet 12/1 e/w betfred and Sennockian Star e/w 16/1 betfred 5.35 There is a big gap in the market from future empire onwards, and it's mostly justified. Plenty of solid claims at the top of the market. I would fancy Bantry Bay far more of the O'Brien's, won really well lto and was massively backed on debut but he's second string so I can't back either. The one at the bigger prices I love is Vive Ma Fille who now receives a mares' allowance leaving handicap company. Mark Johnston has won this an astonishing 7 times since 2001, and with 7 different horses at that. This horse went really close in a good Musselburgh handicap off 84 and looks like she'll improve for the step up in trip. Very happy to have astute pace judge Joe Fanning on board. Vive Ma Fille 25/1 e/w Ladbrokes

[arsenalfh]

3:05 Ascot - King Edward VII Stakes Eagle Top was an impressive winner of this last year and stablemate Mr Singh runs in the same colours here for John Gosden who has a fantastic record in this. Interestingly Mr Singh won the same maiden as Eagle Top and runs here with a very similar profile so this has likely been the target for some time. That maiden has worked out well with the 3rd winning twice since and the second Scottish was just touched off in the King George V Stakes yesterday. He was only 4th next time in a Listed contest but that was a race won by Derby 3rd Storm the Stars with the highly rated Best of Times in 2nd. He also ran better than the result suggested considering there was no pace and he wandered considerably down the straight. The firm ground is ideal and he's a definite stayer. Mr Singh - 2pts Win @ 12/1 Paddy Power

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3:40 Ascot - Commonwealth Cup Hootenanny looked fantastic when winning over a mile at the Breeder's Cup which would have stretched his stamina and hacked up in his prep for this but faces some really tough competition here. Several of these look to have progressed past Henry Candy's juvenile hero Limato including the William Haggas trained Adaay. He won fair and square last time against Limato and I don't think the latter can use the ground as an excuse as Adaay will be much more at home on this quicker surface too. He was a highly rated 2 year old going off favourite in the Coventry last year but never fulfilled his potential. Haggas seems to have found the key to him this season though and he looks highly progressive. Anthem Alexander is the other I like who was very impressive on her reappearance when expected to need the run. She had Toscanini behind her who has since been beaten less than 2L in the Jersey and is sure to improve a bundle for that. Everyone at Naas that day were talking about how well she's done from 2 to 3 and I fancy her to reverse the form with Tiggy Wiggy. She's already a Royal Ascot winner and like Adaay she's going to love the quick ground so I can see her running a massive race. Anthem Alexander - 2pts Win @ 7/1 Skybet Adaay - 2pts Win @ 9/1 Betfair

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4:20 Ascot - Coronation Stakes Lucida and Found bring top class classic form here but this race is all about the French filly Ervedya. She was beaten by Found as a 2 year old in the Marcel Boussac but everything went wrong for her that day. You can win from a wide draw over a mile at Longchamp but not when you pull the whole way around the field to lead. That's what she did that day and although she still travelled best of all she didn't have enough left in the tank to hold off Found and Soumillon was quite easy on her at the finish. She's trained on a great deal over the winter destroying her opposition in the Prix Imprudence, a big trial for the French 1000 Guineas which she won in style. Again from a wide draw Soumillon gave her the most confident of rides and you just knew he felt he was always going to win which speaks volumes of her class. I completely agree with JC Rouget who believes she goes on all types of ground and she should have no problems with the quick surface here. The ground on Arc day last year was good to firm as the times suggest, not good which it was listed as at Longchamp. Treve won the Arc in one of the fastest ever times and Ervedya seemed perfectly at home on that sort of ground. I really think Found should have beaten Pleascach over a mile the last day and although Aidan has his string in terrific form Lucida could be the main threat. That being said Ervedya won the Pouliches in such a convincing manner and who knows how good she could be. Ervedya - 2pts Win @ 9/2 Paddy Power

[richard-westwood]

305 asc stravagante 99.23 festive 98.89 question over distance here for stravagante but hes so far in front over 10 f that 12f must be within his range surely ...worth a try stravagante 5 pts win 5/2 will hill 340 asc I just think muharrar 99.25 and anthem alexander 99.18 ...look hugely overpriced here ....yes its a very hard race but their level of form looks very competitive so makes them huge value anthem alex 4 pts win 15/2 sky b muharrar 4 pts win 14/1 sj 420 asc lucida 99.28 cant see past lucuda here ....should in theory run a big race today with conditions ideal ....7/2 looks fair value lucida 5 pts win 7/2 bet365 5.00 asc dashing star 98.78 watersmeet 98,76 very open race again and anyone could win but from a ratings view these two stand out ....they have a slight cushion on the rest of the field and are being offered at 10/1 and 12/1 ....good enough for me dashing star 3 pts win 10/1 bet365 watersmeet 3 pts win 12/1 will hill

[richard-westwood]

340 asc I just think muharrar 99.25 and anthem alexander 99.18 ...look hugely overpriced here ....yes its a very hard race but their level of form looks very competitive so makes them huge value anthem alex 4 pts win 15/2 sky b muharrar 4 pts win 14/1 sj at last ....nice winner on the board ....I hate ascot ..soooo difficult to find winners .....at the mo im on ...losses 82 points ....returns 108 ...+26 points after 4 days !!!....struggling ...cmon lady luck