grand national trends

[richard-westwood]

early but taking top 42 runners currently................ chase wins 3mile +at least one officially rated at least 136 chase runs at least 10 weight 10st to 11-6 career falls no more than 2 age 9-11 run within 30-50 days 3 runs this season applying these leaves rocky creek monbeg dude night in Milan duke of lucca bottom one might not get in as of yet if you apply fences factor ..previous national fence experience only leaves monbeg dude making hime suer value ew bet of race at 33/1 but rocky creek must have outstanding chance and night in Milan a very good outside chance at 40/1 food for thought ill be dutching top 3.....10/1 33/1 and 40/1 currently

[arsenalfh]

Re: grand national trends Yeah I think Rocky Creek has a great chance. Looks in better shape this time round and he ran a cracker last year. Alvarado was another one I liked but Tom Segal put him up in a podcast and he's now 20/1 from 40/1.

[richard-westwood]

Re: grand national trends strange fact yest which you wouldnt expect ....the combined topspeed and postmark top 4 in irish national finishrd 1st 4th 6 th and 7 th .....not somethin youd expect in long distance race but there it is .....applying this to grand national at mo gives ... soll 338 rubi light 336 rebel rebellion 335 rocky creek 326 food for thought

[Toast]

Re: grand national trends Good luck with this Richard. The snag I see with following these trends, though they can be a good guideline, can become outdated. This is obviously down to the handicapper and his cause to give the better class of horses a more realistic chance. There are 2 major trends that I've discovered, that have developed in the last 7 years.The first being that the last 7 winners had a hurdle rating of at least 139. This is grade 3 level, of which the national is

[Toast]

Re: grand national trends The second I found when trying to think if the horse would act on the course. I had the likes of Exeter, Newbury, Punchestown etc, big galloping courses in mind. But, to my surprise, it was Cheltenham which figured the most prominently. 12 of the last 15 winners had either won, placed or beat at least 66% of the field there in 16+ runner fields. Thinking logically, it's no real surprise as the better class horses tend to run there, and seeing as though the national is now attracting better class horses, then it's no surprise at all.

[Toast]

Re: grand national trends Punchestown appears on the cv of Hedgehunter, Number6valverde and Papillon.so if you fancy an Irish horse, form at this course is important. Some trends will IMO, still be important, the age stat for example, but seeing as though the race has become less demanding, the horses race faster and falls will be more likely, so the fell no more than x times, will become a major factor.

[stewartd14]

Re: grand national trends Interesting analysis both ... will keep very much in mind when looking at the race - especially those course stats Toast!

[santos_]

Re: grand national trends I've backed Soll ante post and he does mark most of those stats and now he's in the field really like his chances. Has been around the fences before as a seven year old and finished 7th when Aurora's Encore won it and also got arund when he was 11th in the Topham in 2014. Two from two this campaign and think he's a better horse now then when he last had a crack at the National and he's never fallen in his career been brought down once and pulled up once.