Pro-percent plus OAP

[Jackform]

Some time since I posted anything but gearing up for the Flat again now. I am a long-in-the-tooth OAP (old age punter) having followed UK mainland racing for 64 years off and on, so I have been round the track a few times you might say. Nowadays I never do my own form analysis but rely on the professionals for advice and that's where the 'pro' come from in the title. I am old-fashioned, out-of-date, over-the-hill and well past it so my opinions ought to be taken with a pinch of salt mainly I would think. I considered the Southwell 2.10 & 3.45 but my selections are too short for me. 2.10 Midnight Request -100% pro support 3.45 Champagne Present - 100% pro support

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP Just in passing if you like to back everything in sight these do have pro support today where many will go off favourite. Support them to a £1 stake and you may lose £18 but you could make a packet. 12 selections arranged in 3 goups of four backed for 6 doubles in each group. S2.40 Moonlight Maggie H2.30 Cyrus H3.00 Onenightinvienna S3.45 Champagne Present S4.20 Taylor H4.45 Oxalido H5.15 Ten Trees S5.25 Sugar Train S3.10 Royal McNab H4.10 Surprise Vendor S4.55 Sendiym H5.45 Buckled

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP A couple of better betting propositions today from two better class races, having said that the 'pros' differ from my opinion, which at least means the odds should be better. Newton Abbot 3.10 Achimota is my pick. Velator - 60% average pro consensus Southwell 3.20 Noble Citizen my each-way shot. Pearl Nation and Patriotic both 20% below average pro consensus. It's always handy to have a comparison opinion and I like the old Fineform master formula using your daily newspaper. Where the ratings are compiled from the first three in the betting forecast, last two form placings, course wins, distance wins and top three handicap ratings. Max rating being 20 with a half and a + for splitting. NA 3.10 13 Velator 9+ Big Society 9 Achimota S 3.20 (where Noble Citizen only rates 7) 15 Pearl Nation 11 Two Moons 10 Frontier Fighter

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP A bit of housekeeping first - I deserve a medal for coming on today as I fell earlier in the garden - sprained my ankle and twisted my - which is not good at my age :cry(give my wife ehr due she has washed my trousers. Yesterday no-one could cut it over the jumps but altogether gave the first three home at Southwell (a 9-bet tricast would have paid £176.57 -isn't hindsight marvellous). Oh! And my each-way pick proved to be the correct choice. Today (before I pass out) I considered the four better class races at the afternoon meetings. Wolverhampton 2.50 Jackform (me) - Wanting Pro-percent - Enlace 33% Fineform - 19 Wanting, 13 Enlace, 8 State Of The Union Newbury 3.05 Jackform - no selection Pro-percent - Chosen Well 50% Fineform - 17 Chosen Well, 11 Ugolin, 10 Tistory Newbury 3.40 Jackform - no selection (slight leaning towards Owen Na View) Pro-percent - Owen Na View 33%, Morning Reggie 33% Fineform - 14 Morning Reggie, 13 Owen Na View, 11 Trickaway Ffos Las 3.50 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Aigle De La See 33%, Flintham 33% Fineform - 13 Aigle De La See, 12 Flintham, 11 Lamps That's it folks - off to take some more painkillers.

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP Four races today but nothing too exciting, and yesterday was a flop. Wetherby 3.20 Jackform - Greenlaw takes precedence to Vinny Gambini, or dutch them. Pro-percent - Greenlaw 33% Fineform - 10 Vinny Gambini, 7 1/2 Vasco D'ycy Newcastle 3.40 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Montoya's Son 60% Fineform - 20 Montoya's Son, 19 De Vous A Moi, 14 Gleann Na Noochais Newcastle 4.15 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Dark Dune 20% Fineform - 17 Dark Dune, 12 1/2 Avidity, 12 Ivan Boru Lingfield 4.40 Jackform - Brother Tiger Pro-percent -Brother Tiger 80% Fineform - 16 1/2 Brother Tiger, 16 Desert Strike, 15 Clearing

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP A new Flat turf season where gamblers rush in where angels fear to tread. Being very pedestrian I'm sticking with the jumps at Stratford. Stratford 1.50 Jackform - Laser Blazer as a tentative pick. Pro-percent - Lanceur 50% Fineform - 15 Laser Blazer, 14 Lanceur, 7 Maxie T Stratford 4.10 Jackform - Forgotten Gold Pro-percent - In Fairness 40% Fineform - 15 What A Good Night, 12 Richmond, 10 Goodtoknow I shall be watching the Flat with interest of course. Doncaster 3.10 Pro-percent - Chatez 28%, Lesha 28% Fineform - 9 Buckstay, Certificate 5 1/2, 5 Donny Rover Doncaster 3.45 Pro-percent - Tres Coronas 28% Fineform - 11 hillbilly Boy, 9 1/2 GM Hopkins, 9 Mange All My approach is track form but of course that is just one method, sometimes it is possible to do better thinking outside the box. Some years ago I read a pro-punters book which was of the opinion that there is a bias in the OR, where the top of the hcap are alloted a few extra pounds to 'stop' them and the same taken off the bottom to give more of a chance. Without going into details this is what the two big hcaps at Doncaster look like: 3.10 Chatez 9-7, Spa's Dancer 9-7, Lesha 9-7 3.45 Gabrial's Kaka 9-6, Bronze Angel 9-6, Mondialiste 9-5, Ocean Tempest 9-5

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP The class of racing is better then usual for a Sunday but alas I have been unable to identify any nailed on certainties. Ascot 3.05 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Baron Alco 60% Fineform - 14 Zarib, 9 Sternrubin, & Karezak Ascot 3.40 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Turn Over Sivola 57% Fineform - 15 Top Gamble, 13 Crookstown, 8 Chris Pea Green Ascot 4.10 Jackform -Creevytennant an each-way shot Pro-percent - Creevytennant 40% Fineform - 12 Five Star Wilsham, 10 Wayward Prince, 8 Relax Considering any possible OR bias at Doncaster the 3.20 looks like a bookies benefit. I mean how is it possible to compile a hcap for 22 runners within 10 lbs. Rejigged hcap in card order:- Jamaican Bolt 9-4, Steelriver, Arnold Lane, Shared Equity, Ancient Cross - all 9-3 Pro-percent - Basil Berry 40%, Shared Equity 40% Fineform - 13 Basil Berry, 9 Shared Equity Doncaster 4.30 My Reward 9-1, Sharp Sailor, Storm Rock, Logorreheic, Dance Of Fire - all 9-0 Pro-percent - Dance Of Fire 42% Fineform - 13 Velociter, 7 My Reward, 7 Darrington

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP At first glance the jumps fare today seemed better the the usual mediocre Monday but in practice it appears not so. Warwick 3.25 Jackform - Horizontal Speed takes precedence over Seventh Sky for me. Pro-percent - Seventh Sky 28% Fineform - 13 Seventh Sky, 12, Mwaleshi, 11 Horizontal Speed Warwick - 4.00 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Saint John Henry 60% Fineform - 19 Capard King, 17 Saint John Henry, 13 Heronshaw Chepstow 3.35 Jackfrom - No Selection Pro-percent - Ballybough Pat 40% Fineform - 14 No Through Road, 11 Candide, 7 Ashes House Kempton 4.20 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Morgan's Bay 58% Fineform - 16 Bertenbar, 15 Morgan's Bay, 13 Venetian Lad

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP Chose the wrong one from my two yesterday when I should have dutched them :cry. Today's cards look awful to me from the punters point of view, so just the one race. Exeter 3.40 Jackform - Roll The Dice Pro-percent - Coolking 40%, Royal Native 40% Fineform - 15 Coolking, 11 Roll The Dice, 8 Royal Native

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP The pro's are currently doing better than me, as they should really, so perhaps I should just follow them. No way Pedro :). Towcester 3.40 Jackform - Lily Little Legs Pro-percent - Lily Little Legs 60% Fineform - 11 Strange Bird, 9 Lily Little Legs, 8 Carhue Princess Chelmsford City 4.00 Jackform - Urban Castle Pro-percent - Wakea 60% Fineform - 17 1/2 Wakea, 17 Tacticus, 14 Purple Spectrum

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP Wanna good thing? This could be your lucky day :p - of course the odds will be short. It comes from the fact that I prefer handicap races to non-handicaps, because they have an official standard in the OR, where every runner is weighted to give it an equal chance. Some American guru stated the it's not possible to reduce form for a horse to a single figure and I agree with that also. The handicapper has an impossible task in not being aware of changes in bodyweight from race-to-race, not knowing whether runners could have done better if pushed in a finish, and brings everything to good going which often will not be the case. Nor does he know the mental state of any horse and wouldn't make any allowance for it if he did. The connections are the one's that should know these factors, if only for their own runners, so confidence or lack of it ought to be reflected in the market. Take the Wincanton 2.20 today as an example currently there are 9 runners and if they all have an official equal chance then their odds are 8/1. Any runner at half that, 4/1, must be quite well thought of and anything at a quarter of that, 2/1, has to be a strong contender. Buck Magic 5.4 earlier on Betfair Jimmy The Jetplane 2.2 (Pro-percent 80%).

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP Pressed for time so just some to consider. Ludlow 2.30 Slow Foot, Jack Frost 3.00 Brassick 5.30 Clyne Taunton 3.20 Green Du Cel

[Jackform]

Re: Pro-percent plus OAP Having never enjoyed much success on the artificial surface tracks I could end up with Easter egg on my face today. Having said that it's a good card they have put together at Lingfield today. Lingfield 1.40 Jackform - Lamar Pro-percent - Lamar 33%, Khatiba 33% Fineform - 15 Lamar, 12 Don't Be, 11 Fresles 2.10 Jackform - Pretend Pro-percent - Chookie Royale 50% Fineform - 20 Pretend, 17 1/2 Chookie Royale, 17 Rivellino 2.40 Jackform - Emirates Skycargo Pro-percent - Lexington 33%, Four Seasons 33% Fineform - 19 Tempus Temporis, 18 Lexington Times, 16 Emirates Skycargo 3.15 Jackform - No selection Pro-percent - Sovereign Debt 50% Fineform - 18 Captain Joy, 16 1/2 Sovereign Debt, 16 Mindurownbusiness 3.45 Jackform - Tryster Pro-percent - Trysater 100% Fineform - 20 Tryster, 18 Grendisar, 12 Complicit 4.15 Fineform - Portamento, Harry Hurricane Pro-percent - Portamento 50% Fineform - 20 Primrose Valley, 14 Blue Aegean, 13 Merdon Castle 4.45 Jackform - Anglophile, Hurricane Higgins Pro-percent - Anglophile 50% Fineform - 18 Anglophile, 16 Hurricane Higgins, 10 John Reel