Big Race Selections 2015

[santos_]

Re: Big Race Selections 2015 9TH APR All bets BOG Aintree 1.40 (Manifesto Novices Chase, Grade 1) Vibrato Valtat (2pts win, 2/1 Bet365) Three Kingdoms (0.5pts win, 9/1 Bet365) For a Grade 1 this doesn't have the deepest look to it depth wise and I'd be surprised if the two outsiders could have much say in this (Cash and Go and Val De Law) So think the winner will come from the obvious fancies. Josses Hill regained some of his hype when he ran much better lto behind Un De Sceaux in the Arkle but I'm still not 100% convinced by his jumping and if he can back up after that run. Vibrato Valtat is my main selection to land this, He ran well for a long way in the Arkle and tried to go with the impressive winner but was never going to win and maybe paid the price as he weakened to 4th, but I think He can gain compensation today if ridden a little more patiently. I don't normally dutch in small fields but at these prices I'll have a saver bet on Three Kingdoms as he is overpriced in my opinion. Well beaten in that Arkle race but his form before is good enough. He was only just beaten by Vibrato Valtat at Kempton and is a winner over today's trip, looked the value in this race if the top two in the betting fail to deliver. Aintree 2.15 (Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle, Grade 1) Hargam (2pts win, 8/11 Bet365) I think Hargam looks very solid at the top of the market here after his excellent third in the JCB Triumph Hurdle behind the Nicky Henderson pair Peace and Co and Top Notch. He was beaten 4 1/2 lengths but the first three pulled miles clear of the rest and anything like the same run here would see him claim this prize. Aintree 2.50 (Betfred Bowl Chase, Grade 1) Holywell (2pts win, 15/8 Bet365) I think this race boils down to whether the horses who ran in the Gold Cup are able to back up after 27 days and a gruelling race if they do they must be fancied if not this could be a boil over. I've sided with Holywell who chased Coneygree in vain at Cheltenham but eventually plugged on for 4th and was 17 lengths clear of Silviniaco Conti who finished back in 7th. While I think Silviniaco Conti is a much better horse away from Cheltenham I still prefer Holywell to confirm that form today. AP is back on board having steered him to 5 of his 7 wins and he is also a C&D winner and has run well here before. Aintree 3.25 (Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle, Grade 1) Arctic Fire (2pts win, 7/4 BetVictor) This was probably the race I found hardest to pin my colours to the mast of any selection in today but I finally went with Willy Mullins and Arctic Fire. He has been running with great consistency for the last year or so and got closest to the oh so impressive Faugheen lto in the Champion Hurdle and today could be his well deserved day in the sun when he can finally land a big race of his own rather then being a valiant place getter. In my opinion it all comes down to whether he gets the trip and if he stays I think he wins. The fly in the ointment here I think is Jezki who I think is much better suited to this longer trip these days and should improve past his run in the Champion Hurdle. Arctic Fire has however finished ahead of Jezki the last twice and if you had to take one horse out of the Champion Hurdle race if would be Arctic Fire. Aintree 4.40 (Betfred Red Rum Handicap Chase, Grade 3) Ned Buntline (1pts win, 7/1 Bet365) Definite Dream (0.5pts each way, 33/1 BetVictor) Got a few of these backing up from runs in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and although Next Sensation was a well deserved all the way winner he has taken a hike in the weights and as a result that makes things tougher for the front runner. I'm however taking the side of Ned Buntline to reverse that form and go a few places better today. He was sent off a 7/1 shot that day and the horse was maybe carrying more then a few sentimental bets when the race was named after AP who of course rode him that day but he did run well in finishing 4th of the 20 who took part. I like horses who are proven in big fields when it comes to these big handicaps and Ned Buntline has that form in the book and this sharper 2 miles should suit him more. The other selection in this is Definite Dream at a big price each way. He won back to back races at Ffos Las and Ayr before being beaten lto in his hat trick attempt at Newcastle but he's only had the 6 chase starts for 3 wins and in at the bottom of the weights could play a role.