AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th

[Aidymac]

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[kevshat]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Tournament preview: 1pt ew R.Palmer to win AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 28/1 Skybet (1/4 1-5) Ryan Palmer doesn’t have the tournament history that suggests he’ll go well here but I can’t ignore him given his current form and he is surely going to go in soon. He biffs it a long way off the tee which is no disadvantage this week even though it isn’t essential and he currently ranks inside the top 15 in strokes gained putting. Here is a man who can get on a real scoring roll and if he does that on any of these three courses he has the ability to blow this field away. Palmer was second in his last appearance at the Phoenix, tenth in a similar event to this at Humana go his form suggests he can go well this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/at-t-pebble-beach-national-pro-am-betting-ryan-palmer-can-land-elusive-2015-title

[Aidymac]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Dustin Johnson - 5 Points each-way @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places Although Dustin had a spell on the sidelines, a ban for using a banned substance, he has been playing a lot of golf even in his time off. Although he did not make the cut at the Farmers Insurance last week, I thought he hit the ball very well. He had an eagle on a Par 4, and the Farmers is an extremely difficult course, with the South Course being one of the toughest in World golf. Given it was his first tournament back, not much more could have been expected. He has a tremendous record here at Pebble Beach, which include two wins, a 2nd, 5th and 7th place finish in the last seven years. He can put in a bold showing this week again. Ernie Els - 4 Points each-way @ 80/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places I was trying to find form from Ernie around this course, but I am actually not sure if he has ever played here at all before? Anyways I have risked a few quid on him as I think the course should suit his game. He has been playing well enough on the European Tour over the last couple of months, a T12 finish in Abu Dhabi his most notable finish. We all know Ernie blows very hot and cold, especially with the putter, but when he is on song he can win any tournament and at 80/1 I am willing to have a punt. John Huh - 3.5 Points each-way @ 200/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places Another bit of a stab in the dark, but John was a player held in high regard when he got on tour. It has not quite worked out for him as expected but many forget he is a PGA Tour winner as he won in Mayakoba in 2012. He has not done anything brilliant this season as of yet, but he has only missed two cuts from the first 9 events of the season and is playing reasonably well. I followed him in the Farmers last weekend, and he didn't play too badly at all, a 74 on the terribly difficult South Course and a 66 on the North Course. He couldn't live with the South course over the weekend, it is so long and the rough is impossible and he should find this a bit easier.

[Bamford]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Jason Bohn 200/1 - Short Par 72s are where Georgian Jason Bohn excels. Granted he plays better at the end of a season, rather than the start, but Bohn plays the kind of controlled golf that yields plenty of birdies on low scoring tests. Good form at El Camaleon transfers well to Pebble Beach and with little or no wind forecast, I can see Bohn surprising at a rather tasty price.

[kevshat]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Top player markets: 2pts I.Poulter Top European 4/1 Bet365 Ian Poulter had a good first week back last week with only a poor final round costing him a big finish but he should be able to build on that and this is the sort of tournament he should go well in. The positive last week was his putting which while not everything was holed it was on track so I expect a big showing from a man keen to impose himself on the golfing world again after a poor 2014. Even at 4/1 I think he should lead this field home. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/at-t-pebble-beach-national-pro-am-betting-ian-poulter-can-lead-the-european-charge 1pt ew A.Baddeley Top Australian 10/1 Coral (1/3 1-2) Aaron Baddeley is one of the best putters on the tour and has been for a while now and it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that his putting catapults him past a few in this leaderboard. He is generally solid enough from tee to green and hits a number of greens. He has been solid without being spectacular this season but on a set up which is relatively easy to cut the amateurs some slack his tee to green game should be good enough and his putting ability the difference between him and the rest in this field. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/at-t-pebble-beach-national-pro-am-betting-aaron-baddeley-can-putt-his-way-past-the-australians

[Tedthewolf]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Got to go for Shane Lowry fine effort last week 50's looks big worth a small bet e/w he will win tournaments this year imo.

[The Quiet Man]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Hi Folks, I'll try to make more of an effort to the Golf Threads each week, so here goes.. Jimmy Walker @ 9/1 with Coral My personal opinion is that Jimmy Walker is now one of the most consistent performers on the US Tour - he's discovered how to turn a bad round into a 71 or 72 and that makes a huge difference. It's a tough Tournament to win playing alongside the (so called Celebs) but Jimmy has a proven record of doing well here with top 10 finishes in 2011,12&13 then winning in 2014. Anyway, good luck whoever you pick! TQM

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th

Ernie Els - 4 Points each-way @ 80/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places I was trying to find form from Ernie around this course, but I am actually not sure if he has ever played here at all before? Anyways I have risked a few quid on him as I think the course should suit his game. He has been playing well enough on the European Tour over the last couple of months, a T12 finish in Abu Dhabi his most notable finish. We all know Ernie blows very hot and cold, especially with the putter, but when he is on song he can win any tournament and at 80/1 I am willing to have a punt.

He's never played this event but the 2010 US Open was at Pebble beach and Els ran 4th, so from that limited sample he's certainly a shout. This event looks like it's regularly won by a name favourite (Tiger, Phil, DJ) with a couple of outsiders. Walker is a strong favourite but I'll focus on trying to pick an outsider to contend as weather here can affect different courses in rather different fashion and there has been a couple of surprises throughout the years. Michael Thompson @ 100 Betfair Played well last week at Torrey Pines so I am hoping that good form can count for something here. His best attribute is his work with the short stick and with distance not nearly as big a factor here than it was last week I am hoping he can produce this week. Spencer Levin @ 100 Betfair Has two top 10's here and looks to be returning to his best form after a rough couple of years. Performed well last week hitting a lot of greens but ultimately I feel the length of the course told against him. That's not an issue here and 3 figures seems overly generous given his improving course and 2015 form. Jonas Blixt @ 160 Betfair Twice a winner on tour and another whose strength is his putting. Hasn't performed too well this year but he's a player who is capable of playing well despite his form not hinting at it. He won Greenbrier in July 2013 despite not having a Top 10 previously that calendar year. He also tied for 2nd at the Masters last year, again without a Top 10 previously that calendar year. Pat Perez @ 160 Betfair Perez came close to winning this all the way back in 2002 and was 7th last year. My main angle here though is the pro-am aspect. Perez has won Humana (the only other 3 course pro-am event on the calendar) and had other top finishers at that event. My takeaway from this is that he thrives on the easier flag placements and general vibe and format of these multi course pro-am events. Troy Merritt @ 550 Betfair He ranks 12th in Strokes Gained Putting this season and managed a 2nd at St Jude last year out of nowhere, having not had a Top 40 result previously in 2014. Total stab in the dark but one that I have a funny feeling about.

[jackierubberleg]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Top Australian; Scott Gardiner (EW) 100/1 B 365 1/3 Places 1,2 To be quite honest Scott Gardiner is not at the races at the moment and generally is a bit of a rag when it comes to betting. His play this season so far has been less than impressive so fireworks are not expected. The only positive I can offer is the fact that he has made the cut here in the past two years and that may well be enough to secure a shot in this market at long odds. Jason Day heads the market at a ridiculous 1/3. He missed the cut at PB last year and the exertions of last weeks win may well have an say in how he performs here. The big disappointment here is that the Scrooge like bookies only see fit to offer two places in a field of twelve players. Certainly not "Employee of the Month" material, the genius trader who came up with that one! GL with your bets.

[jackierubberleg]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th In running outright market: Jimmy Walker ew 50/1 PP. Place 1,2,3,4. Jimmy Walker started this tournament at a snails pace and after a fairly dismal level par round at Spyglass Hills he grasped hold of the nettle with a fine 67 at Pebble beach. Invariably someone will make a run on the leaderboard from the pack and who better to do just that than the reigning champion and in form Walker. I believe one of the ace cards Walker holds is that he plays Monterey today and that course has shown to be a birdie fest this week (Jason Day tore it up yesterday). Add also his 67 yesterday at the beach where the final round will take place and this late developer on the tour has a few things in his favour. I envisage, over the weekend Walker appearing in the rear view mirror of the leaders in a similar fashion to that menacing truck in the movie "Duel". Denis Weaver stay off the beach! GL

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Quite like that bet Jackie. Of the Top 25, only 1 has played Monterrey Peninsula so far (Alex Prugh). Stuard and Stroud are the next two highest at -7, and given both are at 330 on Betfair, I'm tempted to have a wee go on them as well as Walker.

[jackierubberleg]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th Hi Crouchy. I didn't expect the leaders to get away as much as they did yesterday. Walker took a bit to long to crank the engine up at Monterrey. I guess he looks a bit too far of the pace but you never know in golf. He may still have a slim chance at the place money. He has fared well at PB this week so that may help an unlikely cause. GL

[Aidymac]

Re: AT&T Pebble Beach National > February 12th - 15th

Dustin Johnson - 5 Points each-way @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places Although Dustin had a spell on the sidelines, a ban for using a banned substance, he has been playing a lot of golf even in his time off. Although he did not make the cut at the Farmers Insurance last week, I thought he hit the ball very well. He had an eagle on a Par 4, and the Farmers is an extremely difficult course, with the South Course being one of the toughest in World golf. Given it was his first tournament back, not much more could have been expected. He has a tremendous record here at Pebble Beach, which include two wins, a 2nd, 5th and 7th place finish in the last seven years. He can put in a bold showing this week again. Ernie Els - 4 Points each-way @ 80/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places I was trying to find form from Ernie around this course, but I am actually not sure if he has ever played here at all before? Anyways I have risked a few quid on him as I think the course should suit his game. He has been playing well enough on the European Tour over the last couple of months, a T12 finish in Abu Dhabi his most notable finish. We all know Ernie blows very hot and cold, especially with the putter, but when he is on song he can win any tournament and at 80/1 I am willing to have a punt. John Huh - 3.5 Points each-way @ 200/1 Paddy Power - 6 Places Another bit of a stab in the dark, but John was a player held in high regard when he got on tour. It has not quite worked out for him as expected but many forget he is a PGA Tour winner as he won in Mayakoba in 2012. He has not done anything brilliant this season as of yet, but he has only missed two cuts from the first 9 events of the season and is playing reasonably well. I followed him in the Farmers last weekend, and he didn't play too badly at all, a 74 on the terribly difficult South Course and a 66 on the North Course. He couldn't live with the South course over the weekend, it is so long and the rough is impossible and he should find this a bit easier.

Very good finish to the week for Dustin to finish in the Top 4, his break seems to have had no ill effects on his game anyways. Yet another place, no wins as of yet this year. Season Total Stake - 150 Points Season Total Returns - 145.05 Points Season Total Profit = -4.95 Points