Better Racing

[robertob]

Yes, he went off much shorter in the end, though the result was tighter than the price would have suggested. Nonetheless Sherlock Holmes looks a really nice prospect. He's a real stayer, a relentless galloper, as he proved last night at Bellestown once again. He didn't win by much, but he finished the job, despite unsuited by the track and despite still looking green. He won't go up for much in the mark and wherever he pops up next will be potentially well in. 2.50 Sandown: Dragon Stakes (Listed), 5f Red hot favourite Soapy Aitken was't disgraced when fourth at Royal Ascot. But he's not an outstanding chance in this field in my eyes. On paper, the form of Riflescope looks stronger, as he ran on strongly to finish fourth in the Norfolk Stakes. Is he speedy enough though? The lightly raced filly Ejaazah makes appeal. She showed prime speed in a hot maiden on debut, progressed from that in a good manner when she won at Chester subsequently. She is well bred and open to any kind of improvement. She is overpriced in this field. Ejaazah @ 15/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Ante-Post - Durban July: Legal Eagle @ 6/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win Write-up to follow...

Completely forgot about this... but better late than never. The big race tomorrow, Legal Eagle in the meantime the clear favourite after he won his prep in tremendous style over a trip way to short of his optimum. Since the July weights already out at that stage, he is more than well in tomorrow. In fact with only 54kg on his back he is potentially the best ever handicapped horse ever in the July! I guess I would even the 5/2 you can get at this point, because only in-running trouble can beat him. This lad has it all. He's the Derby winner, loves the trip, loves the track, is the 3yo with massive weight advantage... he's a sure a thing you can get I guess. That says Futura is obviously the main danger on paper. He is a really, really good horse. But with 60kg he'll have it all to do here. I think last years extremely unlucky runner-up Wylie Hall poses a much bigger threat. He's a top draw, is in prime form and a hardy horse not easy to pass.

[robertob]

Legal Eagle encountered a trouble run and was robbed any chance to finish closer than he did. Shame! 4.10 Hamburg: Deutsches Derby (Group 1), 1m4f Without Karpino and Quasillo the German Derby has lost its main attractions. Which makes it now quite an intriguing affair. Shimrano is a fair favourite nonetheless. He has the form in the book. His win in the Oppenheimer-Union-Rennen is the best trial form on offer. From a betting perspective he makes zero appeal though. 2/1 in a big field with many unkown quantities.... I'll be going with a massive price - Graasten. He was well beaten behind Shimrano at Collogne, however didn't quite get the run of the race in home straight and was staying one late. He clearly would appreciate an additional furlong and won't mind the Derby trip at all. Fitted with blinkers for the first time today, it may help this very raw and green colt to keep his focus better than he has in done all of his career starts. He's often sluggish at the start, but has been best when ridden from the front. He enjoys a good draw today, so with the blinkers fitted, one would hope he is much sharper and is going to be well positioned. This son of Sholokhov is a relentless galloper, big and scopey build, he could be hard to pass over the Derby trip once he is in front. Of course only if he has the class as well. He has to improve dramatically on what he has shown so far. But he has a chance to do so in my mind - a better one than his massive price tag. Graasten @ 66/1 Coral - 5pts Win ---------- 4.10 Ayr: Handicap (Class 3), 1m Wide open race, not many appear well handicapped, although Pintura might well be, judged on his former best. He is down to a lowly mark off 89 now - that might well reflect his true potential now - but he seemed to regain something of his best when a fair third over course and distance here at Ayr back in May. He was a good runner-up that day coming of a long break. I happily ignore his latest run at Haydock in unsuitable quick conditions. This today should suit rather well though. There is a bit of juice in the ground as he likes it and could be underestimated. Main danger is obviously the lightly raced favourite Obsidian who could easily have still more to offer and should really close. However he's a short enough price while Pintura offers a bit of value. Pintura @ 16/1 Stan James - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.10 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Fillies' Listed), 1m Favourite Temptress should be hard to beat given her brilliant run at Royal Ascot when she followed up on an ultra impressive performance on her seasonal debut. However her draw and running style are a slight negative at this track, so she might be vulnerable to someone who gets first run. I feel this could be Merry Me. The filly seems on the upward with age. She left a poor season opener behind with a massive run in a Handicap at Epsom. She travelled strongly chasing the pace, didn't seem to be impacted by a bit of a rough ride in the home straight and went clear inside the final furlong, just to get a bit tired or idle in the dying strides when eventual winner Gratzie came out of nowhere to get up on the line. Merry Me didn't have time to respond to this challenge and gave a good deal of weight away to the winner as well. The slight drop to 1m should suit perfectly today though as well as track and ground. Merry Me @ 6/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[robertob]

2.45 Ascot: Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2), 1m I'm prepared to take on favourite Arod. He's clearly top class but the slight drop in trip is not sure to suite on lightning fast ground. He is a fair price, but nothing more. In the same ownership, progressive Lightning Spear made giant strides this season. He followed up on an impressive display at Lingfield with an even more impressive performance at Salisbury last month. Bumped at the start, stuck in traffic until late, he stormed clear under 9st 10lb when finally in the clear. He's a major player today. The joker, if you wanna say so, is Bow Creek. Excellent last season, he was clearly not himself on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown earlier this year. If he can find back to his best he's dangerous. Lightning Spear @ 7/2 VC - 5pts Win ------------ 2.35 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f Hard to look past Aiden O'Brien's extremely well bred Air Vice Marshal. He was pretty green on his debut but came on a truckload the next time. Admittedly, the maiden he won at Gowran Park isn't worth an awful lot but the way he did it was ultra impressive. He could have won by any distance. He is good looking, big and scopey and has the pedigree to do well as a juvenile Main danger is William Haggas's War Department. Forget his Ascot run, it just wasn't to happen for him that day. He looked good on his debut though and should be competitive today. But on the prices, I feel the Irish raider is overpriced and should be a full point shorter in my book Air Vice Marshal @ 3/1 Coral - 10pts Win ------------ 3.45 Newmarket: July Cup (Group 1), 6f Two big prices against the two hot favourites: Due Diligence is one. I'm inclined to give him one last chance. At this time last year he had the world at his mercy, yet things didn't go right from there on. Two disappointing efforts this year, a particularly dismal one at Royal Ascot - it might be that he has never recovered from his injury - but Aiden O'Brien wouldn't bring him over if he wouldn't think Due Diligence is in with a chance. The other one I like is Danzeno. Rather lightly raced, he may still be able to pull out a bit more. He was unlucky at Newcastle last month following his excellent seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes. Trip, track and ground are sure to suit perfectly. Danzeno @ 20/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win Due Diligence @ 25/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win ------------ 4.55 Newmarket: Class 2 Nursery, 7f Favourite Majdool was very impressive at Chelmsford over this trip, albeit it was a poor maiden. He was fair runner-up behind Beaverbrook before, however, so is clearly the one to beat today on that evidence. Spongy shares collateral form with him and has a chance on the weights today, but probably needs a bit further given the way he stayed on to win lto. Mark Johnston has his juveniles in top form this season. Aleko is no exception. Off the mark in a 6f maiden in excellent style, he failed to follow up at Epsom, though. Might be wise to ignore that run as he missed the break and was never comfortable at the track throughout. The step up to 7f is sure to suit on pedigree, and this well bred individual should do better now in nurseries. Aleko @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts Win ------------ 5.05 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f Space Age performance at Royal Ascot was freakish to a point, given his wide draw and the frenetic pace he set - yet it seemed it suited him to be in front alone. H deserves to be hot favourite today. He is up by 8lb but could be well able to defy this new mark. But it's Dartmouth who appears to be quite well handicapped, given he wasn't disgraced in the very same race and can race off the same mark. He had a wide draw to overcome and had to travel three wide. throughout. Given the circumstances he ran a fine race. He is well bred, still lightly raced, and can do better today. Dartmouth @ 8/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Yesterday afternoon at around 5pm I was pretty depressed.... but then came Dartmouth who got me out of the hole with his dominant success at Ascot. What started like a bleak day, ended in modest 10pts profit. Could have been better if not for hitting the post twice. Lightning Spear in particular was unlucky, as he ran into all sorts of trouble in the home straight. 3.45 Dundalk: Handicap (57-75), 7f Good racing at Dundalk's All-Weather today. The 7f handicap looks an intriguing contest. Favourite Ishebayorgrey has been a model of consistency and can race off the same mark as when he won a good 6f race at Leopardstown last month. Though he appears to be vulnerable over this trip; the additional furlong seems to stretch his stemina. Some lightly raced and potentially well handicapped sorts can make their presence felt. Most interesting is Escapism on her handicap debut, however. The John Oxx charge has done not too badly in maiden races, most notably eleven days ago in a hot sprint. She travelled well but seemed to be out-sprinted in the closing stages. She steps up to 7f now which should certainly suit on pedigree. Both sire and dam have won over this trip; in fact she is not badly bred at all. An opening mark of 66 is lenient in my eyes, given her most recent performance and the potential improvement to come over this trip. The All-Weather surface won't be an issue either. Escapism @ 7/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win -------------- 4.15 Dundalk: Marshes Handicap, 5f Ultra competitive race with plenty of pace - it should be fast and furious. You can't discount anyone lightly here, but Ger Lyons' Ardhoomey is particularly well fancied in the betting after a good performance in a hot Curragh Premier Handicap. He did well to finish 4th from the position he came from and gets help from the handicapper who drops him below a mark of 100 now: his wind problems in the past are a concern, though. My Good Brother showed a return to form when an unlucky fourth at Fairyhouse. He is down to a handy mark and should go close. Lightly raced Urbestchance is interesting here, dropping in trip on her handicap debut. She is open to any amount of progress. Old boy Russian Soul will have to overcome a wide draw in order to get to the front in a race where competition for the lead is likely to be fierce. The big weight is even more likely to stop him anyway. Prince Connoisseur hasn't been any good this year so far but slipped down to a dangerous mark if back to his best. I really do like Kimbay, who appears to be overpriced. She has been very progressive the last two seasons, and it didn't stop this year as she got close on her seasonal reappearance and then took advantage of a drop to her prefered 5f trip at Tipperary. Forgive her last performance at the Curragh where she wasn't in a good position. She has been dropped 3lb for that and is now effectively only 4lb above her last winning mark. She could be still well in, particularly today where she is returning to Dundalk's All-Weather. She is unbeaten in three starts over course and distance and should be a major player of her low weight here. Kimbay @ 9/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win -------------- 4.50 Dundalk: Conditions Race, 1m 1f Only three runners, and with Xebec exposed as a mid-80 rated handicapper, this should be a match between Outspoken and Don Camillo. Outspoken was a fair runner-up behind stable mate Archangel Raphael. He is very lightly raced and open to further improvement, the switch to the All-Weather may not be an inconvenience. Says the slight drop in trip is not sure to suit given how one-paced he looked as well as easily outpaced one the tempo of the race increased turning for home. He's clearly no superstar. Dermot Weld's Don Camillo was utterly disappointing last week in a listed event at Roscommon. However the race itself was a strange one, so was the ground. He was eased in the closing stages and may be better judged on what he did before. He wasn't disgraced in Group company at Royal Ascot, and I liked what he did on the Dundalk All-Weather before. He won here a maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older & more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty. He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series earlier this year, though he didn’t take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish this trip and the surface. With a visor fitted for the first time, he can be sharper in the closing stages now. Don Camillo @ 11/4 Sportingbet - 5pts Win

[robertob]

6.25 Longchamp: Grand Prix De Paris (Group 1) I can see the reason why many are keen on Balios after his impressive success at Royal Ascot. Not sure if the race is run to suit him, though, as he seems to need a quick pace and every inch of 12f trip in the King Edward. Storm the Stars has been runner-up in Irish Derby and third in the English equivalent. He sets the standard, obviously, however may be found out for speed once again. He looks a stayer, and I can see him only winning a Group 1 over the Leger trip. He also had a tough season up to this point, and it might be a race that comes too soon. For the French it is once more an Andre Fabre trained colt who is going to provide the key challenge. Ampere is unbeaten in two starts, already a Group 2 winner and clearly an exciting prospect. The better ground is a slight concern, as well as his form is nothing particularly special after all. Silverware should find this trip stretching his stamina, while progressive Erupt is clearly one to take seriously. But it is Aiden O'Brien's Archangel Raphael who is the most intriguing contender in this field. He was one I was keen to see as a three year old. He made a belated comeback but couldn't have done much more than winning his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse earlier this month. The runner-up has subsequently franked the form with a good victory at Dundalk. Archangel Raphael was a good juvenile. A bit unlucky not to win on debut, when 2nd to a good winner. He was quite green that day as well as on his second career start - though then at Galway, he produced an impressive turn of foot to win in difficult circumstances. Longchamp as a track should suit him perfectly and in a slowly run race he may be one of few who is happy to make all. Blinkers fitted for the first time doesn't need to a negative. In fact he could be even sharper in the finish. This talented individual is clearly overpriced in my mind. Archangel Raphael 12/1 Stan James - 5pts Win

[robertob]

5.50 Curragh: Irish Oaks (Group 1), 1m 4f Ribblesdale Stakes winner Curvy sets a strong the standard in the Irish Oaks. She is progressive, has strong course form and couldn't have done more to impress at Royal Ascot. But there are plenty of dangers in this field so it certainly won't be a walk in the park for the 5/2 favourite. Aiden O'Brien's cavalry consists of "only" three runners, after Qualify pulled out. Munster Oaks winner Words is the most fancied one of the trio. Only two starts to date, she can improve again and is clearly poised for a big run. Stable mate Together Forever was well beaten in the Epsom Oaks. She was up with a strong pace, got hampered 2f out and tired subsequently. She deserves another chance. So does Kissed By Angels. An impressive winner of a hot 1m Leopardstown maiden earlier this year, she was last seen at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas. After stumbling out off the gate, she probably made a bit too much early on, yet travelled quite strongly a most parts of the race - though didn't find anything when it really mattered. Jockey booking is a big negative but the step up in trip should suit. Jack Naylor wasn't quite suited be run of the Epsom Oaks. She was a big eye-catcher in the Irish 1000 Guineas though and it wouldn't be a surprise to see her bounce back today. Jessica Harrington's charge remains clearly with potential. Three English raiders try their luck: James Fanshawe's progressive Speedy Boarding faces arguably her toughest test. She is an intriguing contender, nonetheless. The same could be said about John Gosden's Gretchen. She was thrown into deep water at Royal Ascot. On the back of a good maiden win, she run her heart out in the Ribblesdale Stake. Although caught wide in the home turn, she lost an awful lot of ground subsequently, She'll have learned plenty on that day. Hugo Palmers ships over Covert Love. This filly is still unbeaten in three starts this year and she may improve again as she steps up to 12f for the first time today. Verdict: Intriguing contest. Curvy is a fair favourite but there is plenty of opposition in this race capable of taking her scalp. Together Forever with less aggressive tactics could be the main danger. But price wise I believe stable mate Kissed By Angels is massively overpriced. Still lightly raced, she travelled well in the Guineas and this new trip could see her in much better light. Over the top is also the price on offer for Gretchen. She was green at Royal Ascot and didn't have the run of the race. The galloping Curragh will suit down to the grounds and with natural progression she is a huge runner. Gretchen @ 12/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win Kissed By Angels @ 33/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Fillies' Group 2), 1m 1f Favourite Brooch ran inexplicably flat in the Pretty Polly Stakes, she is better than that, but has to concede an awful lot of weight here once again. That makes her vulnerable. Talmada's recent runner-up effort behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner Covert Love sets a strong standard, but the slight drop in trip isn't sure to suit. Mutatis Mutandis could go close if she doesn't miss the kick this time, while strong travelling sort Bocca Baciata will be much better suited by this test than when last seen at Royal Ascot. Raydara has to bounce back from a poor seasonal comeback run. I'm intrigued by Godolphin's Local Time. She looked smart at Meydan, won the UEA 1000 Guineas and Oaks earlier this year. She hasn't been able to back these performances up since her return to Europe. But both times she competed in Group 1 class on quick ground, and the slight drop in class as well as an easier surface may help her to find back her best. Saeed bin Suroor is adamant that she needs a bit of give in the going, that is the reason why they are coming over to Ireland. It has rained over night quite heavily which should clearly benefit Local Time's cause. 9 furlongs could be an ideal trip too. I feel she deserves another chance and she could well able to outrun her price tag. Local Time @ 20/1 Stan James - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.10 Curragh: Minstrel Stakes (Group 3), 7f Gordon Lord Byron could be hard to beat here. He has been in fine form lateley and finds perfect conditions at the Curragh. British raider Home Of The Brave won't go down with a fight, though. He has shown some excellent form this year and seven furlongs looks his optimum. It remains to be seen how he acts on the ground. Sovereign Debt was an impressive winner on Irish Derby Day here at the Curragh. That day everything fell into place for him. The drop to 7f will surely suit, though. Ramone is a tough mare but may need a stiffer test. Dark Emerald was progressive in Meydan, nonetheless a career best is required today. Jim Bolger's Flight Risk was a surprise winner of the Gladness Stakes back in April. This form has worked out very well, while the four year old colt has proven his class since then too. Some creditable efforts in Group company subsequently, rounded up with an unlucky runner-up effort in the Celebrations Stakes behind Sovereign Debt last month. The race wasn't run at a suitable pace for him, but turning for home he made good progress on the inside and looked to mount a big challenge, but got stuck on the rails with no room to go. Kevin Manning switched wide, which cost ground and momentum, yet Flight Risk flew home late. Ground and trip will suit today. There should be a good pace ensured, and while it is not easy to give weight away, he is clearly in excellent form and can go close. Flight Risk @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[jayalexander]

How strange that we both had the same picks today. I only used dosage figures. They both ran stinkers!

[robertob]

They did, yes. But that's okay. Been big prices. Not going too well for me lately anyway. But that's fine too. tide will turn again. Ascot: King George VI (Group 1), 1m 4f Will Golden Horn run? We don't know yet. The ground is soft, and despite the fact that the sun is out, it won't help to dry quickly enough. I suspect that the hot favourite won't take up his chance here. But regardless of whether he is in or not, it should be an intriguing affair as not too many are suited by the conditions. Well, Clever Cookie surely is. He'll love every drop of rain in the ground. He is in top form, won two on the bounce and should have things the way he likes it. I think he is potentially overpriced, but also feel he may be tactically disadvantaged with his usual running style - he simply might get going too late. It could be difficult to peg back some others who are attempting more aggressive tactics. I believe Snow Sky is a major runner here today, with or without Golden Horn. He stays further than 12 furlongs and might be actually better over two additional furlongs, but he proved his class in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot over this trip when he was very impressive to land it from the front. He may not get the lead this time, but will surely be prominent nonetheless. That will enable him to kick on 3f out, turning for home. He has a bit of a change of gear, so may be able to put some lengths into the rest of the field at this stage. And one thing is assured - he'll stay. This Nayef son is a typical Sir Michael improver, he's blooming this year. The ground of course is a question mark. His best performances came on a quick surface. However he used to win his maiden on bottomless ground with ease, so he is probably fine. There aren't too many others who appeal to me. Flintshire is a quality runner, but he'll hate the ground. Eagle Top isn't sure to enjoy it either. While Postponed remains one with potential but has never encountered these conditions before. Romsdal has yet to win on turf, though the filly Madame Chiang has course and distance form on soft ground as she was victorious at British Champions Day last year. She is an intriguing contender. Track, trip and ground will suit. Her seasonal comeback run over shorter 10f in the Middleton Stakes wasn't all that bad, however she hasn't been seen since, which is a concern. And what about Golden Horn - if he runs? Of course he's the one to beat. His record speaks for itself and he has the vital weight for age allowance on his side. But the ground is a major worry. Yes, he won his maiden on good to soft, but he looked so exceptional on a fast surface - I'm worried. Verdict: I'm prepared to take on Golden Horn in these conditions ans believe Snow Sky has a major chance. He shouldn't mind the ground and tactically the race could pan out to perfection for him. He's a big price. Snow Sky @ 15/2 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

4.00 Pontefract: Pomfret Stakes (Listed), 1m The boys in blue have a red hot favourite here in Let's Go. This three year old gelding recently smashed some decent handicappers on only his second ever career start and on that evidence, given the weight for age allowance, he might be hard to beat today. However it's completely different - i.e. stronger - opposition as well as a different surface he meets here - we'll find out how he handles it. Given his skinny price I look elsewhere. I feel there isn't much between the others well fancied rivals. Mondialiste can bounce back from a slightly disappointing effort at Royal Ascot. He's having a strong season nonetheless and his third behind French Navy in Group 3 company sets the standard. Short Squeeze ran his heart out at Windsor last month; he'll be competitive today as long as he can overcome the track bias. He usually comes from well off the pace, however Pontefract suits more prominent runners. Consistent Fire Ship is unbeaten over course and distance and has some creditable performances to his name this year: a fair third behind Top Notch Tonto when last seen, and an excellent 3rd in a hot Leopardstown Group 3. He's hasn't won since 2013, though. Birdman has been a revelation this season. He's now as highly rated as he has been back in his promising juvenile days. He deserves a shot at this race but I feel this could be too hot for him. The other 3yo in the field, Hail The Hero, will find this a tough assignment her, despite WFA in his favour. Verdict: Whether the quick ground will hold up with rain falling right now, I'm not sure. But if it goes into the ground it shouldn't inconvenience too many. However I feel Fire Ship is overpriced in this field. He loves it around this track, won't mind the rain, and has been in good form. I don't see why he is twice the price of Mondialiste. There isn't much between them. Fire Ship @ 8/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.45 Goodwood: Summer Stakes Naturally this is an ultra-competitive Handicap, but the ground doesn't play into the hands of many. However it should suit progressive Notarised. He is hard to pass once in front, as shown when winning at Haydock recently where he prevailed in a tough fight. He pulled clear with the second, who's a good horse in his own right too. Notarised has won at Goodwood before as well as over 2m. He should have all in his favour, including the possibility to get a soft lead. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but can be able to pull out a bit more once again, particularly with conditions to suit so well today. Notarised @ 8/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win ------------- 6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile Dermot Weld's runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices. In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn't show his true form. Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with. Aussie Valentine @ 25/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win

[robertob]

2.35 Goodwood: Gordon Stakes (Group 3) I feel depressed to say it, but I have to oppose Highland Reel firmly. He was the most exciting horse to look forward before the start of the season but he didn't fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile. I tend to agree, though, that his Derby performance was too poor to be true and he might be seen in a better light today. Yet he could be vulnerable to some progressive sorts and is not certain to stay thus far anyway. Medrano is a fair alternative and should run his race, however the drying ground might not be quite what he wants. Disegno would have to take a big step forward to feature, I feel, and he doesn't look all that likely to do what is required to win. The two individuals most likely to improve are Scottish and Space Age. Both have improved in recent weeks and deserve a shoot in this company. I struggle to favour one over the other, though. I fancy both and feel they are overpriced. So I go with both. Scottish is a full-brother to Group 3 winner Royal Empire. He was beaten on his seasonal reappearance by smart Mr Singh but got off the mark subsequently in fine style. Stepped up in trip at Royal Ascot, he was an excellent runner-up behind Space Age but had to delay his run until 2f out at which point Space Age was long gone. He looks clearly on the up. Space Age's win at Royal Ascot was freak-like. Overcoming the widest draw, setting a hot pace but held on gamely in the closing stages. He was beaten in 2nd off his revised mark in his next start by a well handicapped individual, but most importantly had to give loads of weight away that day while deploying an aggressive racing style once again. Both look well up to pattern class in my mind and should run big races with conditions to suit. Space Age @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win Scottish @ 8/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

6.40 Galway: 3yo Handicap, 1m The trip is a concern for the favourite, although the light weight is a huge advantage for Laganore. I feel the horses higher up the marks facing quite a stiff task and my interest mainly applies to the lower weights. With Laganore making not much appeal due to a shocking price, the next best choice appears to be Wonder Holy. Of a mark off 79 with a useful 5lb claimer in the saddle, he is an intriguing sort. He hinted a bit of ability in a maiden at Fairyhouse when he finished strongly coming from an impossible position. He got off the mark the next time at Killarney, when again not favoured by the way the race was ran, but he got there in time. Today represents a massive step up in class, but I believe there is a good chance he is a bit better than his current rating. He has a good draw today and the ground won't bother him at all - therefore he seems quite a big price. ? Wonder Holy @ 20/1 Paddy Power

[robertob]

2.35 Goodwood: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) Long Island at 6/1 is a huge price in my mind. Forgive him the run at the Curragh which came too soon after a big performance at Royal Ascot. He's more suited to 6f though and after a bit of rest should be back to his best today. He went into the Royal meeting as the most exciting 2yo and I think it's too early to give up on him. Long Island @ 6/1 Betfred - 5pts Win ----------- 3.00 Galway Handicap (90-60), 1m Top weight of ten stone and a wider than ideal draw are tough asks, but lightly raced Champagne Or Water makes plenty of appeal in this field nonetheless. She came out off her seasonal break really well at the Curragh earlier this month when she won a good Handicap in fine style. She came miles clear with the runner-up and might well be able to pull out more, despite a rise off 9lb in the mark. She is overpriced here. Champagne Or Water @ 9/1 Coral - 5pts Win ----------- 3.10 Goodwood: Goodwood Cup (Group 2), 2m I like to think that Pallasator is capable to bounce back today. He's a really interesting runner - the three year old filly Vive Ma Fille is the one that intrigues me most. She is wonderfully bred, is a full-sister to Group 1 winning Vif Monsieur and she stepped up successfully to Listed class at Royal Ascot last month. She tried 2m for the first time and attempted to make all. She set a steady pace and was in with a big shout over one furlong out, however hang her chances literally away. Whether this performance is prove enough for her ability to truly stay 2m isn't clear yet as on pedigree she hasn't really a right to do so, but it was an encouraging effort in a competitive field. Today is tougher of course in a better grade against seasoned stayers, and the fact remains that she has won only one single race to date. But she has been very consistent in her form. What I like is thee fact that she receives a truckload of weight from the rest of the field. The Johnston yard is flying too, so there's plenty to like about her chances. Vive Ma Fille @ 20/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win

[robertob]

2.35 Goodwood: Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) Bold entry from Mick Channon to send his classy filly Malabar into the race. But then, there are good reasons for it. Goodwood is the place of her biggest triumph, when she landed a Group 3 here last year. Since then she contested at the highest level against top class opposition while performing consistently well. She is however a filly who runs consistently into trouble as well. She was unlucky in a handful of her starts, most recently in the Irish 1000 Guineas and subsequently the Prix De Diane. She drops markedly in class today and I believe that should make all the difference. She just doesn't have quite the high cruising speed or change of gear you need at Group 1 level. But down in Group 3 class, she should be a major player in this wide open race. Visors fitted may help her to stay focused until the race is over as she often travelles well but seem to lack sharpness when it really matters. Negative is De Sousa who just can't ride Goodwood. But it's worth the risk as Malabar strikes me as a filly with a massive chance. Malabar @ 10/1 Sportinbet - 5pts Win ------------- 3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile Handicap, 1m This should be an incredibly close race and I feel Ocean Tempest is very much overlooked. He hasn't really excelled at Meydan and seemed to feel this tough campaign on his UK comeback in the Lincoln. Back from a break now, he is finally dropped to a realistic mark again in a grade where he belongs. He has the draw to get into a positive position right from the start here, which should suit. He may not get an easy lead, but tracking it would work too. Off 105 he must certainly enter calculations if back in form, given he won off ten pounds higher last year. Ocean Tempest @ 33/1 Coral - 5pts Win ------------- 4.20 Goodwood: Nursery, Class 2, 6f Richard Fahey's filly Zahrat Narjis makes plenty of appeal here on her Nursery debut. She is very well bred, by a sire who gets often excellent 2 year olds, out of a Group 3 winning dam. She showed promise in all her three maidens and now switched to this company should help her. She could easily be better than her opening mark off 72. Zahrat Narjis @ 12/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win ------------- 6.50 Galway: Guinness Handicap, 1m 4f Dermot Weld's Show Court went close in this last year when runner-up off a 2lb higher mark. He travelled strongly but maybe hit the front a bit too early. 12f seems his absolute limit stamina wise and the same scenario could very well happen today again - but at 7/1 I'm rather on him, given that he appears to be well handicapped now. Show Court @ 7/1 Betfed - 5pts Win

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Been some tough few days but Malabar steered the ship back into the right direction. Her 10/1 win was badly needed but as always in racing, one big winner, and you're back in the game. Last day of Glorious Goodwood today - hopefully ending it on a high note. 2.35 Goodwood: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f I like the profile of Melodious here. This progressive filly is beautifully bred for 12f and showed excellent improvement this year. She should come into her own with time so may have not shown her best yet. Unlucky to be piped on the line at Newbury the other day, she tries this trip only for the second time and remains on a fairly decent mark. Melodious @ 12/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win ----------- 3.10 Goodwood: Nassau Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f Burned my fingers in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh when Diamondsandrubies held on to win against Legatissimo. I believe the Wachman filly can turn the table today. She had a tactical disadvantage at the Curragh and is the better filly of the pair. I was inclined to leave this race as it is, as there are some other good fillies in the field too with French Oaks winner Star Of Seville or English Oaks third Lady of Dubai. But Legatissimo is now available at 5/2, which I didn't expect and deem as too big. Legatissimo @ 5/2 Betfred - 10pts Win

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4.05 Greyville: Champions Cup (Grade 1), 1m 1f Realistically a two horse race, South Africa's two top drawers meet once again. The score is 3-1 in favour of Legislate. and the one time Futura got the better of him, was in the Queen's Plate earlier this year when Legislate was not right as we know. Legislate fought back form his illness, won the Gold Challenge on his return comfortably, beating Legislate in third, for whom it was merely a July prep run, though. Futura ran with loads of credit in the big one subsequently, given the massive weight he had to shoulder. While Legislate surprisingly popped up in one of the hottest sprints of the year where he finished an excellent 3rd. The trip today should suit both down to the grounds and it will be interesting to see who is the better one. Both are exceptional horses but Legislate always strikes me as the "special one". He may have a tactical advantage today too, he can make all from the front without a problem and use his superior speed to kick on when it matters. At the given prices, the value clearly lies with Legislate. Legislate @ 5/2 Coral - 10pts Win

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3.15 Chester: Queensferry Stakes (Listed), 6f You can pick holes into any horse here, even the rather shortish favourite. Eastern Impact's Royal Ascot performance sets obviously a very high standard, but earlier this season he wasn't capable of winning a listed event. So while the drop in class is significant today, it doesn't mean he'll have an easy task. With the rain falling, I like to give proven soft ground performer Canny Kool a chance here. He tries 6f for the first time and will have raise his game in order to feature. But he should be well suited by the trip on pedigree and may well be able to pull out more. He has a good draw and is usually up with the pace, which always helps at Chester. Canny Kool @ 12/1 Betfred - 5pts Win --------- 3.50 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 1m Apostle need to have things fall inch right for him in order to win, as happened exactly one year ago when he landed this very same race. He is down to the very same mark today, hasn't been disgraced in a very hot handicap lately and therefore should be in with a fine chance here. The draw isn't ideal and it appears to be a deep enough race, so chances are that he may not get the all clear run he needs. But despite the quality on offer in the field, not many are well handicapped, unlike Apostle. Apostle @ 10/1 Bet365 - 5ps Win --------- 3.20 Galway: Ahonoora Handicap, 7f A surprisingly lacklustre affair, with a clear lack of quality on offer. Only a handful of horses should be good enough to feature. That makes it easier to narrow down the field. Last years winner Baraweez ran well earlier this week at Festival and must have a prime chance off the same mark today. I can see why Hidden Oasis features prominently in the betting, but the step up in trip is a worry. Beau Satchel won earlier this week and loves the track, so does old boy Pintura - both make plenty of appeal, but the money is coming in for Ger Lyons' charge Piri Wango and there is a strong case to be made for him. He is proven over course and distance, finished runner-up in the Topaz Mile last year and in good form lately. He's the class act in the field with excellent Group form to his name, but that is also the reason why he has to carry top weight. It's a tough ask but he performed well under big weights in the past and should love the conditions today. Seven furlongs is as sharp a trip as he likes it these days, but blinkers and a good draw will clearly help to see him early in position. I believe he has a prime chance to go close today. Piri Wango @ 7/1 Bet465 - 5pts Win

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3.45 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 6f A couple of these have a big shout but at the given prices veteran Mass Rally makes appeal. He's slipping down to a realistic mark, in fact hasn't been racing of such a lowly mark since 2012 when he won the Ayr Silver Cup off 94. He is still competitive as he proved at York earlier this year. He has to bounce back today after a dismal run at Hamilton, but now down to a mark off 95 as well as dropping in class, he should be very competitive with softish conditions to suit. Mass Rally @ 8/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win --------- 4.25 Naas: Conditions Race, 7f Not too many make appeal, but Weld's Katimavik could be well in here. He was an impressive scorer at Fairyhouse over seven furlongs last year, after which his trainer said this lad needs better ground. He was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance but made amends subsequently in a three-runner handicap when hanging tough against a mid-90 rated individual. On that evidence the drop in trip should suit. Katimavik still had only four career starts and with trip & ground to suit he could be a good ten pounds better than his current rating which would give him a prime chance in this field. Katimavik @ 5/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

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7.35 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 5f This could be an excellent opportunity for the old boy Noble Storm to get back on the score sheet. The nine year old hasn't been exactly close to winning this year but more often than not wasn't disgraced nor far beaten. He drops to a very handy mark now which should see him competitive in this grade, particular today with ground conditions sure to suit well. Noble Storm @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win ---------- 7.50 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f The two fillies at the top of the market could be hard to beat here. Talawat of bottom weight will go very close if she gets the trip against this better opposition. Martlet makes more appeal as she is proven over track and trip. However I feel Taaqah is overpriced here. She went close over a mile at Chelmsford earlier this year, when runner-up behind Boonga Roogeta. She hasn't been seen to best effect in her last two starts but the return to the All-Weather may help. She steps up in trip and that is the factor which may see her improving a bit again. On pedigree she has every chance to do so as a son of Arch out of a Gone West mare who has a stake in multiple St. Leger winner Leading Light. Taaqah has only one maiden win to her name yet, and that over 6f. It's is not given that she appreciates the new trip. But it's possible. There aren't too many in this field with a realistic chance on handicapping terms and therefore I believe she is a rather big price here. Taaqah @ 16/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts Win ---------- 8.00 Cork: Give Thanks Stakes (Fillies' Group 3), 1m 4f This two times races filly Zhukova progressed nicely from her debut run when she landed a Navan maiden in fine style back in June. Trainer Dermot Weld was quite happy and was hoping she would make into a nice Stakes filly over further. Today is the chance. She lacks experience in this field but is extremely well bred and should appreciate the step up in trip. With natural progression she can go close. Zhukova @ 14/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts Win

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5.35 Tipperary: Abergwaun Stakes (Listed), 5f The 3yo filly Dikta Del Mar must have a massive chance here. Unfortunately I realized this too late and the price is tumbling. Nonetheless 9/2 proves value given that she hasn't been disgraced in a couple of hot races this year, following on from last seasons Listed success in France. She clearly loves it soft and will appreciate these conditions today. I expect her to bounce back from a poor effort at Goodwood, where quick conditions didn't suit. The drop into Listed class will help today, so will be the tons of weight she received all around. Dikta Del Mar @ 9/2 Ladbrokes - 5pts Win ----------- 6.05 Tipperary: Class 1 Handicap, 5f Ultra competitive race and I like a couple of these. But for price reasons I can't ignore A Few Dollars More who is surely too big at 18/1. He wasn't seen to best effect at the Curragh the last time but might be better judged when there is a bit of juice in the ground as happened on his penultimate start when he won a Cork sprint. This form works out very well. He is down to this very same mark again, and while this here is a stronger race, he gets in off an absolute feather weight. My perception is that with the soft going likely to suit today, he can be better than his current mark off 76. A Few Dollars More @ 18/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win

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4.30 Ayr: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f In my eyes this looks wide open. While I understand why First Sitting is fancied, I fail to understand why he is such a short price. A dozen others in this field have to enter calculations too and he is simply on of the better chances in this race. Most appeal on the given prices makes Urban Moon, who looks way overpriced here after slipping down to a very attractive mark. He won a hot Curragh Handicap last year and proved to have trained on when 1½ lengths beaten earlier this year at the same venue in a big Handicap of a mark off 93. Two subsequent runs in the UK have yielded in two poor showings, but he has fallen down to a mark off 82 now! With the softish ground to suit, and the drop back to 10f not inconvenient, he must rate a prime chance in this field off this mark, if he can find back his form. That is obviously the main question: What has been the reason for these last two performances? Given the race and price he is, I feel it's a worthy risk to have a nibble on him. Urban Moon @ 14/1 William Hill - 5pts Win

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4.25 Salisbury: Sovereign Stakes (Group 3), 1m Plenty of classy individuals in the line-up; last years winner Captain Cat will have a shot again but may find this a hotter renewal. Custom Cut at head of the field is likely to run his usual race from the front. He's always dangerous if allowed to lead. His penalty won't make it easy when it's crunch time, though. Classy Kodi Bear heads the challenge of the classic generation. His weigh for age allowance is a big asset and he hasn't done much wrong this year. He'll be very competitive, however I feel he is not the right price in this competitive field. Tullius drops back to 1m which may not suit on the quick ground. But he certainly has found his form again. Even the big outsiders Short Squeeze and Dark Emerald can't be discounted here and have a chance to pick up some price money. But the 6/1 for progressive Moohaarib looks over the top. He flopped in the Lockinge, but that was a Group 1 and he may not have shown his true class that day. Imagine he wouldn't have run that day and would come into today with his penultimate form, he'd be clear favourite I guess. He looked smart when winning a Listed contest at Ascot, travelling like a dream and never saw the whip. If he can find back to that form he'll be hard to beat I feel. Moohaarib @ 6/1 Sportingbet --------- 6.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m You can easily discount half the field here, but the front two horses in the market have strong credentials to be the ones fighting it out. Alfajer judged on her recent efforts hast to go close; whether she will truly stay the trip is another matter. For that reason, as well as her revised mark, she is short enough a price. The most likely winner is Wee Jean in my eyes. She can make it three on the bounce tonight. The trip may not quite her optimum but she stays it and while she has to overcome a high enough mark, tonight is the ideal opportunity to do so. Nonetheless the best value in the field represents 9/1 chance Sulaalaat. Forgive her the last performance at Newmarket, she is better judged on her strong Listed effort at Royal Ascot where she attempted to make all. The mile trip should be what she wants judged on her pedigree, and she probably hasn't shown us her best yet. In my eyes she deserves another chance and today is a good opportunity to prove whether she is a half decent filly or not. First time head gear could make a big difference, and if can squeeze out a bit of improvement, she will go very close here. Sulaalaat @ 9/1 Coral - 5pts Win

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7.25 Leopardstown: Desmond Stakes (Group 3), 1m It's easy to see why Cougar Mountain is odds-on. He took on some of the hottest milers in the world this season and didn't fare to badly. I feel, though, he has been flattered by the results. he doesn't seem to have the cruising speed required to win at top level. Nonetheless that gives him a clear shot at an easier target today. He's vulnerable to the younger horses, though. Of the tiro of three year olds, Tamadhor is hard to fancy, but Convergence and Raydara must have excellent chances to win this race. The former one has already won a Group 3 at this track earlier this year. He carries a penalty for the success but with further improvement might be able to defy it. However everything points to a big run of Raydara. The filly is a juvenile Group 2 winner and will appreciate the quick ground today. It was a tough assignment to kick off her classic campaign in the Irish 1.000 Guineas where she didn't land a blow, not surprisingly. But her subsequently 4th place in the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes rates a big performance. She travelled like the winner until the final furlong marker, found the 9f trip then a bit too far eventually. Dropped back to a mile, on quick ground, she should be a big runner. She receives tons of weight all around from her rivals and on this terms she looks the most likely winner in the race for me. I consider her to be overpriced at 7/2 in this small field. Raydara @ 7/2 Bet365 - 5pts Win

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3.20 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 3f It highly likely that Sagaciously is well in today and may be hard to beat if runs to his potential. Trip and ground will suit, no doubt. But it's a big field and he is badly drawn out in the carpark. I feel he is a decent price, but I don't want to invest in it. Fellow three year old Process makes plenty of appeal at a much bigger price in my mind. He didn't impress in his last two starts but bumped into very progressive individual and the forms of those races holds up. With a mark off 87 he is now only 2lb higher than when winning a good Handicap at Kempton, so he may be well treated today going against older horses for the first time . The weight for age allowance should be a big help as he's quite a big, scopey horse, and looks very mature. From the bottom of the weights he should fare well in this field where many are exposed. The softish ground is an unknown, but his sire thrived on it. So it's well worth a try. Process @ 16/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win

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3.10 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 7f I don’t understand why Beach Bar is such a big price. This progressive gelding absolutely hammered a decent field on his penultimate start and was utterly unlucky the last time at Newmarket when he got stuck in traffic on the inside rail but stayed on very well late when in the clear. That performance indicates he may can overcome his career highest mark. Today looks a good opportunity for a big run with the trip to suit and the soft ground no inconvinience, which can’t be said for all in this field. Beach Bar @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win ——— 3.45 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2), 7f Here Comes When tops the list as the most likely winner. He hasn’t been disgraced in top class company this year and will thrive in these conditions. Same goes for last years winner Breton Rock, although this years renewal looks much stronger. But from a price perspective I can’t leave Heavens Guest out. He may not be good enough at this level, but has been in outstanding form lately and deserves a go at this. He’ll love the soft ground and is a 7f specialist – he can go close. Hugely underestimated seems to be That Is The Spirit. He also one who needs it soft and seems best suited to the 7f trip. He won a Listed race in excellent style earlier this year and has excuses for two hist last two poor showings. That Is The Spirit @ 22/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win Heavens Guest @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.00 Ripon: Handicap Class 2, 6f Bottom weight Art Obsession could be massively underestimated if the drop in trip does the trick for him. Still lightly raced, one can excuse his latest performance which the first below par one in his career. He proved to be consistent in six starts before. He's unproven over 6f and it could well be all happing a bit too quick here for him, but he usually shows good early speed over 7f, so it may well work. He has form on soft ground as well, so on balance might find conditions just about right. With an excellent 5lb claimer on board today he comes into this race as an absolute feather weight, and I find that hugely attractive. Art Obsession @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win