Better Racing

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 5.35 Gowran Park: Conditions Race, 1m 1f 100y, 3yo Nice little race, with some interesting individuals going to post. Aiden O'Brien's Royal Navy Ship proves popular since the yard finally starts to get into top gear. His runner-up effort in last years Group 3 Killavullan Stakes reads a fair piece of form, though none of those in the race has backed it up actually. Hard to know what to expect from this War Front son here. Zafilani finished with in the Ballysax Stakes earlier this month, in front of Derby fancy John F Kennedy. The merit of this form is debatable but the better ground here should suit. Prologue looks very hard to fancy on form. I'm very sweet on Mohaayed in this race, though. He's one of the horses on my Horses To Follow List, and while his seasonal reappearance in the 2.000 Guineas trail at Leopardstown was nothing to be too impressed about, he still finished a fair third in a very hot race behind two smart individuals. I believe he is bound to improve dramatically for this run, for many reasons. It was only his third career start and he still learns the game. He wasn't quite as green as last season, but clearly further progress is to come in that department. He won on his second start last year in very impressive fashion, despite wandering in the closing stages, and beating a smart Ballydoyle horse in third. He'll relish the better ground at Gowran Park I imagine as he didn't look to be able to put in his best effort on soft at Leopardstown in the Guineas trail. And let's not forget that he steps up in trip now. Middle distance shall be his game I believe. So, plenty to like about his chance. He should have plenty more to come and if he wins this nicely then his next target is very likely the Dante. Says I'm really looking forward to see this Prendergast inmate perform to his best tomorrow. Mohaayed @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 10pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Update on the stats - profit improved dramatically this month after a below par March. Reason is obviously the flat kicking in and things going quite well: Thread overall: 122.13pts profit Strike Rate: 18% Return of Investment: 30%

[arsenalfh]

Re: Better Racing Fantastic profit this month robertob. :clap I have Mohaayed backed tomorrow as well. Really think he could be quite good.

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Thank you mate. Going well at the moment. Good to hear you're on Mohaayed too. Hopefully he justifies our confidence! :hope

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Strange race it was there at Gowran Park. 3 runners in the end, not sure what to make of the odd ride by Chris Hayes. But no excuses. Horse wasn't good enough, had every chance. And that is disappointing.

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 7.10 Naas: Woodlands Stakes (listed) With the rain clouds hanging over Leinster currently, it's not quite clear how the ground end up tomorrow night. this unclear situation makes this race an intriguing contest. There were some showers here today but still plenty of sunshine and I would certainly hope for pretty much the same tomorrow which would mean we have something like good to yielding, or yielding at worst ground wise I would imagine. Even that would probably count against short favourite Anthem Alexander. He really needs it fast and may not be knocked over here anyway as bigger fruits are up for grabs sooner rather or later. Any rain will be appreciated by veteran sprinter Maarek of course. He used to do well as a fresh horse and 5f is his trip, but maybe it won't be quite as soft enough for him? He also seems to start to regress last season. Not to forget he also has to give weight away to all his rivals here. Regressing - that can't be said about improving Great Minds. A shade unlucky on his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, he made subsequently no mistake at Cork in Listed company. He drops slightly in trip and it isn't as soft as he would like it too. On the basis of that he may be opposable, but he's an exciting up and coming sprinter, so has to be in with a big chance. Ger Lyons lightly raced filly Ainippe could be anything. She won a listed race over 5f last season and is Group 3 placed. Ground is a worry though. All her form comes on fast ground. Richard Hannon travelles over with Musical Comedy. Surely not only for the lovely green grass. Drops to the minimum trip has to work, which remains to be seen if it does. Ground will be fine for him. Three year old filly Dikta Del Mar makes her Ireland debut after a decent juvenile campaign in France. She has plenty of soft ground form and could be anything. Jamesie is hard to fancy over this trip. It probably will be a bit too sharp. he may prefers a quicker surface too. Aiden O'Brien's lightly raced Eisenhower is the dark horse. This three year old colt looks big and scopey. He was green on his debut earlier this month, dropped then to 5f to win a maiden at Cork. He still looked like an inexperienced individual with plenty to learn but surely will have done so in that race. He is actually bred for further but showed plenty of speed and is a half-brother to a French sprinter who was Listed placed. As a War front son he probably wouldn't want it too soft but seemed to act perfectly on yielding at Gowran Park. Interestingly he has an entry for the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. So connections must clearly believe he is quick enough. Plenty of improvement to come from this well bred individual, and while I usually find it hard for three year old sprinters against older hoses, he looks nice and big and may make the weight he receives from his rivals really count here. Eisenhower @ 10/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Newmarket Stakes (Listed), 1m 2f With Aiden O'Brien's aloft out, this looks a strange little race. Nothing really sticks out and it depends on the potential improvement to come from each individual runner. That says on pure form I believe Azmaam is hugely overpriced. His three year old campaign started in the 200k Tattersalls Millions over course and distance. Azmaam was a fair juvenile but went with clear doubts about his stamina into this race. He travelled like a dream though but didn't get a run whatsoever until the final furlong marker when he got briefly into the clear, producing an instant turn of foot which looked like to be a decisive move, just to run out off room again. It's fair to say that with a clear run he probably would have won. The winner of the race went on to finish a creditable runner-up in a Group 3 subsequently, so this form looks not a bad one at all. Same conditions here for this 1m 2f contest at Newmarket and Azmaam must have a big chance to win this if he is in the same kind of form and can get a clearer run this time. Azmaam @ 7/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 3.45 Newmarket: 2.000 Guineas Wide open renewal this year - a shame that my long term ante-post pick Highland Reel isn't going to run. So I had to look for an alternative. The one I feel is really overpriced is the exciting Roger Varian inmate Intilaaq. Lightly raced - he had only one start as a juvenile, and repapered at Newbury last month for his second career outing. Always in front, he set a frenetic pace and produced a dramatic turn of foot to win easily. A mightily impressive performance and he is bound to improve quite a bit He is lovely bred and should be able to progress with time and age. It's a tough ask nonetheless for an inexperienced horse to go Newmarket and try to win a Guineas. That days Intilaaq seems to be an extremely talented individual and he has a better chance of winning than his price suggests, in my mind. Intilaaq @ 11/1 PP - 5pts win

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Better Racing Must be honest robertob i very rarely read other members threads (unless i feel that member has the same racing interest as me) but you're thread has some very very good reading. Some very good thinking behind some of you're posts, i like a lot.

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Many thanks Jimmy, much appreciated your kind words. I do my best and try to think "outside the box". Doesn't always work, but as long as works in the long term, it is fine with me. 2.00 Newmarket: Makfi Suffolk Stakes (Handicap, Class 2) In the context of the race I feel Educate is a rather big price. His recent form isn't all that inspiring, but he ran in hot Group races with credit. He drops back into a Handicap now and with that comes a further slip in the ratings. In fact he is now down to his last winning mark off 104. Off this mark he was successful in the prestigious Cambridgeshire, back in 2013 over course and distance. That says today's conditions at Newmarket are no problem for Educate by any means. He loves fast ground, as he won the Cambridgeshire in similar conditions as another two races on good to firm. With William Buick in the saddle, he is bound to be ready for a big run today. Educate @ 8/1 PP - 5pts Win -------------- 2.30 Palace House Stakes (Group 3) This looks a race that should be all about the fast conditions. For that reason I do like the filly Online Alexander. She usually gets beaten when the word soft appears in the ground description but won three times on anything faster than good. I do like sprinters to improve from three to four years of age and she might be one that has more to offer now as an older filly. Matured and more experienced, there could easily be more to come. Fresh off a break, she gets her conditions today and could easily improve for that in a way that would see her going close. That says fillies have a horrible record in this race, so I only have a small punt. But on price, she is the one that sticks out to me. Online Alexander @ 14/1 Stan James - 2.5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Pretty disappointing day - no winner on the Guineas card and none went really close. I suppose I'm most disappointed with Educate. He had no excused, the run of the race, perfect conditions and admittedly 3f out I was counting my money as Buick looked to have tons of horse in hand. Educate seemed to hang in the closing stages though, and didn't finish strongly enough. Azmaam was in receive of a very poor ride imo. Whole race without cover, for a horse that has not the strongest of credentials to stay the trip - disappointing from Hanagan. But the winner looked super good anyway, so it probably was a lost cause so or so. Not sure what to make of Intilaaq yet. Need to re-watch the Guineas. Online Alexander probably lost the race before the actual race. It was impossible to mount her in the parade ring and she was as mad as it gets walking her to the track. Anyway, 1.000 Guineas today - preview soon after lunch!

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 1.000 Guineas - Newmarket; 1m, Group 1 The ground for Sunday remains quick at Newmarket's Rowley Mile - perfect conditions for an exciting renewal of the 1.000 Guineas. The field may lack an obvious superstar at this stage, but maybe there's a new one born as soon as the horses have been crossing the winning post? We will see. It certainly looks a wide open affair. The favourite: Godolphin's Lucida is currently at the head of the market. She replaced long-time favourite Found in that particular position. The Ballydoyle filly is out, though, and her abscense has ripped a big hole into the betting market. Lucida is currently trading a 6/1 chance - not exactly a favourite in the true meaning of the word, is it? The Shamardal filly hasn't done too much wrong in her career. She was a progressive juvenile, finishing a close second behind Cursory Glance in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, while following up with an impressive success in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. Subsequently stepped up to 1m on her final start in 2014, she finished only fourth but the soft ground was probably against her. One would think that on pedigree the 1m trip is ideal, so is the quick ground. Question mark is - did she train on? We haven't seen her this season yet and have to find out this afternoon. She is a pretty good chance on her two year old form, though. The Challengers: Fadhayyil, currently a 7/1 chance, finished a good runner-up behind Lucida at Newmarket last year in the Rockfel. She has only had three starts to date and won only a maiden, but the step up to 1m looks sure to suit. If she can improve a bit for experience and distance, she is fairly closely matched with Lucida. We haven't seen her this year either, though. Lightly raced Jellicle Ball only won a Kempton maiden to date but clearly stepped up to pattern class when she repapered last month in the Fred Darling Stakes over seven furlongs. She is well bred and talented. With the recent run under her belt she's bound to come on a good deal for an excellent runner-up effort that day. She is supposed to be better over further, so 1m looks a perfect trip for the moment. She is a big runner and money is coming for her. David Wachman's exciting Legatissimo won a Listed event over 9.5 furlongs last week. She loves the quick ground and is clearly very talented, but the drop in trip isn't sure to suit her. However she is the choice of Ryan Moore and has to be respected for that simple reason. Royal Ascot winner Osaila proved that she trained on thanks to a gutsy success in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f last month. She has good form over 1m from her only start over this trip when she ran out a fine 3rd at the Breeders Cup. She will need to improve a good deal, though, in order to be competitive today, I feel. The Raven's Pass filly Malabar proved her class in hot Group 1 races last year. Good performances in the Prix Marcel Boussac and Moyglare Stud Stakes give her a fair form chance if she has trained on. Recent Fred Darling scorer Redstart is not out of this either. She won well but has to improve for the new trip here again and one would think that runner-up Jellicle Bell is a better prospect, given that Redstart had everything going for herself from the front, which might not be the case here today. The Outsiders: There is plenty of money coming for Tiggy Wiggy. She is now into 10's which is madness in my eyes. Apologies for the harsh words - but I have to be honest here. Maybe I eat my words afterwards, but that's fine. I simply can't see her stay. She is all speed on pedigree. She is all speed on visual impression. And she has been a precocious two year old sprinter, who doesn't look to have grown allot over the winter. Others make simply much more appeal. UAE Guineas and Derby winner Local Time is an interesting runner. She won at Newmarket over 7f last season but has particularly excelled on the Dirt this year at Meydan. if she can translate this form to turf now, she is not out of it. That says more is required here and others may have more scope. Aiden O'Brien's sole runner is Weld Park Stakes winner Qualify. She was a good two year old but has to step up a good deal here, as well as has to overcome a trip that looks like stretching her stamina. Irish Rookie won a Listed race over course and distance last November. Much more is needed today and the ground is a question mark too. Kodiac filly Terror looks up against it over this new trip. Leaves me with the biggest outsider of them all - Queen Nefertiti. This Galileo filly, trained my David Wachman appears to be pretty overpriced in my eyes. A 33/1 shot at the moment, you can get 1/4 odds and 4 places with Paddy Power - this looks big value. Why? Well, this filly won on her debut last year a good maiden in pretty taking style and was ever since thought to be a Guineas horse. She made her seasonal reappearance at Dundalk recently, the day when I was there and to be honest I really liked what I saw. She looked excellent in the parade ring, clearly has trained on and finished a nice third in a hot little race while only beaten in a very tight finish. She travelled strongly throughout, but gave the impression of greenness in the closing stages when she seemed to be a bit intimidated by the other horses beside her. She was literally sandwiched in the final half furlong, and didn't stick her neck out as a consequence. I would expect her to come on a good bit for the run. She should have learned plenty as well and with trip and ground very likely to suit, this extremely well bred filly could be able to outrun her big price tag. She is my selection against the field, in a wide open renewal, where I probably most like the Gosden filly - but can't see 7/1 as a particularly appealing price. Queen Nefertiti @ 33/1 Paddy Power - 0.5pts e/w

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Better Racing Cracking write up mate. :ok

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Cheers mate. No joy unfortunately, though. Thought the filly looked really good once the false rail kicked in, but didn't get home. The other Wachman filly won really well eventually. However given that she is even at this stage already very clearly a middle-distance horse, makes me wonder how good this field was in the end? A 10-12f filly wins the biggest mile race from off the pace? Hmmmm.... 5.25 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f Intriguing Handicap for three year old's. I feel there is a wrong favourite at the top of the market, or at least the favourite is way too short compared to the rest. That says Muqtaser done really well to finish a close 3rd over course and distance last month here. He is proven in these conditions and is sure to give a good account. But on that exact performance he doesn't appear to be particularly well handicapped off a 1lb higher mark. He had the run of the race that day compared to some others and still wasn't capable of winning. This here doesn't look much easier. He's opposable at short odds. Godolphin's Global Force looks more like a good price. He won a CD maiden last month and gave the impression to be a smart individual. I like him and he may well up to pattern class, but he has to be if he wants to overcome a pretty high opening mark of 94. The handicapper has allotted him a pretty tough assignment for a start. He may well be good enough, but not sure if I really want to find that out with my money with better alternatives from a handicapping perspective. The only positive for Mustard is the jockey booking of Ryan Moore. Otherwise he looks too slow and on a high enough mark considering his handicap debut at Leicester in a lesser race. The step up in trip doesn't seem to suit Azraff on pedigree. He is a good price but I find it hard to fancy him here off a big mark. Lostock Hall has to prove that he really wants 10f. The two most intriguing runners are certainly the two bottom weights. Brotherly Company stepped up to 1m 2f in a Redcar maiden last month and won easily on quick ground. He defies his pedigree and that is something I'm slightly worried about. It was not a particularly strong race, he had it all from the front - this is tougher. But off 81 he is one that could be better than the mark if he truly gets the trip. Without a question Marma's Boy is overpriced. Yes, he didn't beat much at Wolverhampton last month when he got off the mark in a 10f maiden on his seasonal reappearance. But he couldn't have been more impressively. It was only his fourth start, his first over 10f and there is more to come with the trip surely to suit and the switch to turf and quick ground seemingly not an issue judged and last years maiden form. It remains to be seen if he is up to this class, but an opening mark off 79 could be lenient. Marma's Boy @ 9/1 Coral - 5pts win

[kev2oo9]

Re: Better Racing Well played :)

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Thanks mate. Been a rather annoying weekend so far - but Marma's Boy got up nicely to end it all on a high note. SP 10/1 is a little bonus!

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing April is over - time is flying! So time for an update on the stats: April P/L: + 135pts (Feb: +21pts; Mar: -43.87pts) Net Profit Overall: + 139.63pts profit (83 Bets, 15 Winners) ROI: 31% Strike Rate: 18%

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Bank holiday Monday in the UK and Ireland. Some good racing on offer and the sun is out here in Dublin - could be the make-up of a really nice day. So let's try to find some winners, shall we? I'm intrigued particularly by the Curragh card, where Found, the long-term 1.000 Guineas favourite, is going to start her three year old campaign while missing the assignment in the big race yesterday. There is also a hot little Listed race on offer, with favourite Endless Drama one of my Horses To Follow. That says with heavy conditions at HQ, I leave him alone as he is short enough in the betting. These kind of conditions can throw up funny results from time..... 3.15 Curragh: Athasi Stakes (Group 3; 7f) Highly regarded Ballydoyle inmate Found was a top class juvenile last season. She progressed nicely from winning a maiden, to finish a fine third in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, ending the year eventually on the highest possible note with a commanding success in the Group 1 Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. Without the shadow of a doubt Found is the class act in this field today. However, she has had problems during her preparations for the Newmarket 1.000 Guineas, reportedly hasn't been well, missed work and missed subsequently the big race. Started off in this somewhat lesser event now, she is entitled to win if fully wound up. On the other side the drop down to 7f isn't sure to suit entirely, and the heavy ground is something completely new to her. I believe that today is more like a prep race for her - Give her a good day out, if she wins it's a bonus, but it is more important to get a run in. Bigger targets looming large on the horizon. Dermot Weld's debutant winner Shahzeena is thought to be her most feared rival. She won well a maiden in heavy conditions at Leopardstown, so is ground proven. But she needed every inch of the 1m trip and could be found out for speed over the shorter distance here, despite the slow ground conditions. Alive Alive Oh has never fulfilled what she promised to be earlier in her career. Nonetheless the drop in trip plus blinkers fitted is interesting today. Says she has had so many chances, it's more likely that she falls short once again. Lightly raced Stellar Glow is an interesting runner. She should improve as a three year old but probably needs further to be seen to best effect. I used to be a fan of Avenue Gabrial last year. She was a fine maiden winner at the Curragh and was a fair fourth in the Irish 1.000 Guineas. Her 3rd place in the Guineas Trial on heavy ground entitles her to be considered today. Though I've to admit she always looked more like a miler to my eyes. However she should come on for her seasonal reappearance, where she was a big disappointment. However she handles the ground conditions, has form over the trip and I imagine connections revert her back to more positive tactics today. At 14/1, Avenue Gabrial seems overpriced. Lightly raced three year old Off Limits ran pretty well on her seasonal reappearance in a hot little Conditions Race at Cork last month. This looks a strong piece of form given that the winner went on to win the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, while the runner-up won subsequently a really good race at Dundalk. So, a 2½ lengths defeat in third place doesn't look too shabby, given the fact that she got a very light ride that day. Off Limits travelled actually all over them until the 2f marker and initially quickened nicely on heavy ground but just got a bit tired in the end. The drop to 7f looks fine on that evidence and she clearly handles soft conditions. As a juvenile she raced twice. She started off with a fine fourth place in a pretty good maiden and followed up to get off the mark at Leopardstown, where she produced a nice turn of foot from off the pace. Both forms came with cut in the ground. Obviously Off Limits has plenty to find on ratings. She will need to take another step forward to be in with a shout here. But everything is pointing towards her being able to do exactly that. Not to forget that trainer David Wachman is usually doing really well with fillies (not only because of yesterday's 1.000 Guineas success). All in all I believe Off Limits can be a big runner today. Summery: If Found is fully fit and well and handles the ground, she won't be beaten. But it's worth to take her on. The Weld filly has the potential to progress. But the two overpriced individuals in this field Avenue Gabrial and Off Limits. In a seven runner-race, with a short favourite rather easily to oppose, those two individuals make plenty of appeal as 14/1 and 20/1 shots. Off Limits @ 20/1 Bet35 - 5pts Win Avenue Gabrial @ 14/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win ------------ 3.50 Curragh: Handicap (Class 1, 1m) A 16-runner strong field for this 1m Handicap, but it doesn't look overly competitive. It is easy to discount plenty on pure form or for the reason of unsuitable ground. With heavy conditions at the Curragh, you will need to get every inch of the trip and of course you need to love it bottomless. Three horses intrigue me, though. One of those is Princess Glamour. Still a generally lightly raced filly, she ended her three year old campaign on a high note thanks to an impressive success in a good Navan Handicap. She sliced nicely through the field and stayed on strongly to prevail in tough conditions over one mile. This form works out well, but Princess Glamour is only 2lb up for this victory. Now as a four year old there might be still more to come from here. Money is pouring in for her and trainer Edwar Lynam seems to hit a bit of form lately. You would expect her to be ready to go today. The 10lb claimer on board looks pretty useful and is a nice bonus. Main rival should be equally lightly raced filly Bobby Jean. She was just touched off in a 6.5f race at Limerick and the step up to a mile could work for her. She won well over 7f before and relishes soft conditions. She is on a fair mark and I like her. If she stays the trip, she will thereabouts. The third horse to mention is Yes I Am. This gelding hasn't won on turf yet but was a bit unlucky the last two starts when he wasn't favoured by the way the races unfolded. But he goes well on soft ground and his fine third place behind Princess Aloof at Leopardstown gives her a pretty fair chance. Summery: On balance I feel Princess Glamour is the one offering the biggest value at 8/1. She is still unexposed and could be rather well treated of her current mark with a promising apprentice on board. That says the other two mentioned should go really well and it could be one of those races where I have the right ideas but may end up on the wrong horse. Princess Glamour @ 8/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 4.55 Curragh: Handicap (Class 1; 1m 2f) The two horses at the head of the betting market are clearly two very solid individuals with fair credentials to win this race. Fair mark, get the trip and no issue with the ground. However they are nothing more than fair prices in my book. However the four year old filly Sweet Cherry makes plenty of appeal at 12/1. She should improve from her recent Leopardstown outing. A wide draw worked against her and she didn't seem to travel at all when caught wide throughout. But with a run under her belt she can be easily much better today. She was a fairly progressive three year old as she improved from being as low rated as it gets over in the UK to being able to win a Handicap off 70 when she moved to Ireland. She got off the mark in a maiden, and then subsequently upped in trip to 10f saw her successful in Handicap company. She followed up with another good effort in a 12f Handicap, though one could argue that she was maybe a bit unlucky, when stumbling in the closing stages. Her final outing over 1m wasn't the right test for her. Sweet Cherry can race of a mark off 71, which looks generous, given that she won off 1lb lower last season. With conditions definitely to suit today I can see her running a big race. Sweet Cherry @ 12/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Haha sometimes it just can go that way.... I said it beforehand: "...one of those races where I have the right ideas but may end up on the wrong horse." Exactly what happened. I mentioned three horses as the main horses to win the 3.50. Mine finishes well after having way too much to do under a poor ride from the inexperienced apprentice on board, while the other one wins it well. Such is life.... no gain today anyway. Sweet Cherry ran well but could only manage 4th while Found got beaten in the Group 3 indeed but I was on the wrong long-shot... 4.20 Brighton: Handicap (Class 3; 1m 2f) This race looks wide open. You could make a case for each and every runner but could easily pick big holes into their form either. The betting is telling pretty much the same story with the favourite Puzzle Time being a 4/1 shot who usually shows her best with a bit of cut in the ground. Brighton is quick, though - however poses a demanding finish to the winning post. Recent All-Weather scorer Lady Marl makes appeal on the visual impression she gave when running out a cosy victory at Lingfield. But that was against poor opposition. Much more is required here and a penalty has to be defied too. The step up in trip to 10f for the first time may bring out some further improvement, though. Tears Of Sun would prefer it further normally, but she acts on quick ground and won at Brighton in the past. A fine runner-up effort at Bath last month gives her a good chance to be thereabouts here, but she doesn't have any margin of error off her current mark. Same applies to Calm Attitude, who looks on a high enough mark. She may not be suited by the fast ground conditions either. Likeable frontrunner Boonga Rogeeta was finally back in the winners enclosure when last seen. She held on gamely to win a 10f Handicap at Chelmsford, taking advantage of a slipping mark. She has to follow-up in this better race off 5lb higher now. Top weight Stosur might be the only one in this field who is rather easily discounted. She would need to improve quite a bit for her try over 1m 2f to be competitive of a very high looking mark. Turf debutant Elbereth may strip fitter for her recent All-Weather outing. She doesn't appear to be too well handicapped, but with emphasize on stamina in the finish, she could be in the mix here. Authorized filly Special Miss has the benefit of a feather weight and that could help her to find back to her best. She was beaten in third in a five runner affair last month, that day a couple of lengths behind Tears Of Sun. However she received a very light ride and the jockey didn't seem to be too bothered with her chance of finishing the race as close as possible. Expect her to be sharper here. The trip is a bit a question mark. She stayed twelve furlongs in the past against poor rivals and has won over 9f, though in three start over 10f she never seemed to get home yet. However on pedigree she has every chance to get the trip, and with fast conditions to help, she may have found an ideal opportunity to win off a lowly 72 mark. Special Miss @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Woke up this morning and thought it was a rubbish bet. Saw the ground changed to soft later on and thought all hope is lost. Never mind the big drift in the betting. For all of that, she actually ran quite well, without really going close either. The winner had all going for herself with the going chance. it was likely to suit her and made it a real stamina test in the closing stages. She gets further and outstayed the rest. ------------- 3.10 Chester: Chester Cup (Handicap, Class 2, 2m 2f 147y) Traditionally those drawn in single figures have an advantage in this race. So segmenting the field in that very simple way should be interesting. That says I fail to warm up with any of the runners with this little bonus to their name. instead the Chester Cup really looks like a wide open renewal.Rain is arriving and that adds a bit of extra spices - it should ensure that this is going to be a true test of stamina and determination. There is no doubt that the favourite Quick Jack has excellent credentials to land this race. But in the context of the huge field and many other very good rivals in the line-up, he looks a rather short price at 9/2. Last years winner Suegioo has a very wide draw to overcome and is also on a 9lb higher handicap mark these days. It's a difficult task. Koukash's best hope seems to be bottom weight Gabrial's King. He's on a very good mark but any more rain would see his chances going down the drain. Last years rather unlucky runner-up Angel Gabrial is a whopping 15lb higher in his handicap mark than at this stage last season. He probably hang the race away last year but made subsequently amends to land another big Handicap. A good draw is a big help here for him, though the rain isn't. Recent Ripon winner Trip To Paris is on a hat-trick and is clearly an interesting horse. He could improve again, but has to overcome a double figure draw and will need all the in-running luck in the world because of his hold-up tactics. Dermot Weld's sending over lightly raced Zafayan. Hurdles didn't quite work out for him over the winter, so he's back on the flat and repapered with a commanding success at Leopardstown. Much more is required here. He may improve, but hard to fancy for seemingly skinny odds. Mubaraza finished fourth in this last season. He's on the same mark and there is no reason why he shouldn't run a fair race once again. That may not be good enough to win, though. Expect an aggressive front-running ride from Buthelezi. He's back in form after a recent start-to-post win at Musselburgh. Up six pounds for it - he may be found out for class. Highly progressive All-Weather scorer Mymatechris is an intriguing horse. He has a good draw, but usually travelles well off the pace. I don't like that at Chester. Softish ground is an unkown factor. Godolphin's Famous Kid won a stayers race at Meydan earlier this year. He is still lightly raced and might be well able to cope with the new trip. He has not the best of draws and his habit of slow starts is a worry. He won a maiden on soft ground, though. Shu Lewis ran a fair race in defeat when second behind Cheltenham Festival winner Windsor Park. A career best is required from this nine year old. Ground, trip and draw work well in his favour. So he could run a big race. Despite a rather negative draw (15) John Reel makes appeal. The arriving rain is definitely in his favour and his decent gate speed should give him a chance to overcome the draw. He has to, though, as he likes to be up with the pace. If he can do so and doesn't burn too much energy in the early stages of the race then he clearly enters the calculations big time in my mind. He should stay the trip, as he showed his best performances over stayer trips and won an AW Handicap over 2m ½f earlier this year. He hasn't won in his last four starts but was never beaten further than 1¾ lengths and hit the post a couple of times for what he went up in the ratings. I really liked his big performance in the All-Weather Championships Marathon where he made a bit too much in the first half of the race but lead well into the final furlong. He got a bit tired in the end and finished only in fourth. Nonetheless it rates a big performance. He will have to improve again to be really competitive in this top class Chester Cup field but he's been progressive since he came back from a year long break it is far from impossible that there is more to come from him, having the switch to turf in mind, as well as conditions very likely to suit,. John Reel looks a cracking price at 33/1 in my mind. Too big to ignore. He's definitely a better chance in my book. The start will be crucial though. He can't afford to blow it. He will need to overcome the poor draw quickly. Kirby in the saddle should have enough experience to get this job done. John Reel @ 33/1 Stan James - 2.5pts e/w

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 3.10 Chester: Handicap (Class 2, 5f) A very competitive Sprint Handicap that should be fast and furious. Plenty of pace in it and the rain softened ground will make it a tough finish. One of those who'll be bang there is B Fifty Two. He's two from two at Chester, goes well on softish ground, can win over five as well as six furlongs and has the benefit of a good draw. Slight downside is the current handicap mark. It looks still a bit high. He won off 96 here over 6f last season but couldn't confirm this performance in subsequent starts. The only filly in the race, Blithe Spirit, must have a huge chance. She is very speedy but can win over six furlongs too. She loves it soft and she has been successful in three from six outings at Chester. She is only 3lb higher than when winning at this meeting last year and her performance on her seasonal reappearance must rate a strong piece of form. She was only beaten by 109 rated Spinatrix while giving 14lb away to the favourite on ratings. The third of the race has won subsequently. Expect Blithe Spirit to come on a bit for the run. From the bottom of the weight scale it is Come On Dave who'll have plenty of supporters here. He won well on the All-Weather and looks on a good turf mark right now, given the fact that he is 2lb lower than when winning at Chelmsford. He has pole position drawn in 1 and will not hesitate to go on. He has to show that he can translate his AW form now to turf though as he struggled off lower in lesser races last season. Veteran Noble Storm isn't entirely out of this while Ballesteros looks to be on a very good mark if he could find somehow back to his former best. Piazon is only 2lb above his last winning mark and likes it soft, but has to improve a bit to be competitive here. Lexi's Hero goes well at Chester but may find the minimum trip a bit too sharp these days. From a handicapping point of view I believe the filly comes out on top. She has room for improvement, should improve for her recent outing as she did last year too when she scored over CD. She won impressively off only 3lb lower but ran in her seasonal reappearance probably to something like 94 I reckon. Conditions are in her favour here and the draw no problem - she looks a big price at 5/1. Blithe Spirit @ 5/1 Betfred - 5pts win

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Better Racing Blithe Spirit one of my selections too mate, good luck!

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing John Reel 50's this morning... jesus that's massive. Hope the price stays like that and he gets in!!! 2.40 Chester: Cheshire Oaks (Listed) If Aiden O'Brien sends a horse over to Chester you have to take notice. His filly Diamondsandrubies has already some good form in the book this year. Her recent third in a Navan Listed event gives her a fine chance today. She showed signs of greenness but very likely has learned plenty that day. Out of a Sadler's Wells mare you would imagine her too stay the new trip here. On the other hand, the 2/1 odds on offer seem skinny enough. The one horse I find most intriguing here is the Godolphin runner Entertainment. She has an Okas entry and is related to some pretty good horses, which is no surprise given that this Halling filly is well bred. She got off the mark in a 1m Chelmsford maiden last month when she attempted to make all. She was very green throughout the race, had problems turning properly around the bends but held on gamely in a tight finish. I would expect here to come on for this run in terms of fitness and experience. The ever turning Chester track may help her to keep her mind occupied throughout the race. Most interesting factors are the new trip and ground. She didn't look the speediest at Chelmsford but now over 1m 3f one would think this is much more her trip given her pedigree. The softish conditions are unlikely to cause problems. She acted on soft in maiden company last year and her sire was a good soft ground performer. The deep Chelmsford surface is another indication that slow turf may not be an issue anyway. She steps up markedly in class of course. It remains to be seen wheather she is good enough. But there is a very good chance that she can improve a good bit from what she has shown so far and I feel this filly is a very big price in this field. Entertainment @ 14/1 Coral - 5pts win

[arsenalfh]

Re: Better Racing I've backed the two rank outsiders in the Chester Cup, Duke of Clarence and John Reel. Might be mad backing two from wide draws but can't help but think they're overpriced!

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing John Reel ran a mighty race, didn't he? Unfortunately the tank was empty 200y too early and he faded from first into fifth in the end. Nonetheless great ride by Kirby, gave the horse every chance, couldn't be happier with it, despite the e/w bet not quite getting in. Entertainment ran a really good race too. Finished 2nd but had no chance with the fantastic looking winner. Blithe Spirit was the huge disappointment. No excuses for her. I still think she was the best handicapped in the race but she lost it right at the start. -------------- 2.10 Chester: Handicap (Class2, 10f) With the weather playing havoc this seems to be a much more open race. Last years winner Tres Coronas must clearly enter the calculations despite a 4lb higher mark today. You surely will have to get the trip and like it soft, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Brazilian import Energia Fox going close today. The favourite Collaboration has no issues with rain softened ground either, but I can't have him here after a 14lb hike in the mark for an - albeit impressive - recent success at Epsom. Last years runner-up Sennockian Star gives it another go here as well. He looks a mad price at 16/1 in my eyes. Obviously he would have to improve dramatically from what he has shown so far this season, but a return to this track may well rejuvenate him. There is also the small matter of his dramatically low looking handicap mark. He finished runner-up here off 101 last May, won at Glorious Goodwood of the same mark subsequently but is now down to 95! He handles soft ground as well and has a good draw today. At big odds I'm rather on than against him. Sennockian Star @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts win -------------- 5.25 Chester: Handicap (Class 3; 10f) Fahey's Modernism seems to be on a good mark judged on his All-Weather form but only one win on turf puts me off, as well as his non-existent record with cut in the ground. The Character has won a CD maiden last year on good to soft and could be well treated off his current mark if he would find back to that sort of form. Ardmay has a CD success in similar conditions to his name and judged on his very best he may be still capable of better off his current mark. The one I feel is really overpriced though is the filly Empress Ali. It is a slight risk to trust her on her seasonal reappearance and there is the question if she has trained on from three to four, but that is well reflected in the price, given her progressive profile last year, her positive course record, preference for cut in the ground and possible tactical advantage today. She won a CD Handicap of a mark of 82 following up on some fine performances throughout the summer. Probably a bit over the boil in her final start, still she wasn't disgraced in a hot race at York. Currently rated 86, there is fair chance that she has still more to offer, particularly with conditions likely to play to her strengths. She has good draw today which will ensure that she can be ridden handily, or possible even try to make all. She looks versatile in that regard but surly will be in a good tactical position today. All the rain in recent 24h has clearly enhanced her chances too. At 7/1 she looks overpriced in this field. Empress Ali @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Chester Vase (Group 3, 1m 2f) Did anyone ever had the idea to rename the Chester Vase into the Aidan O'Brien Vase? Might be a good idea! The Irish handler has made this race his own in recent years - almost! No less than five of the last eight renewals went his way. And he's bids for a hat-trick today with exciting Hans Holbein. This Montjeu son got off the mark in a Leopardstown maiden last month. Over 10f in soft conditions he made all and quickened nicely when asked to do so. But it was the way he found more and more in the final furlong which really impressed me. He clearly wants further, and he clearly is bred to get further. As a Montjeu out of a Derby winning Shirley Heights mare - he is bred to excel over 1m 4f. Hans Holbein won't mind the ground as he ran with credit on his seasonal debut in heavy conditions at Cork and won his maiden on rain softened ground at Leopardstown. That says everything is set up for a big performance today. The opposition doesn't look all that exciting. In fairness, Godolphin's Future Empire is still open to any kind of improvement. He was convincingly beaten at Epsom by John Gosden's Derby hope Christophermarlowe but was poorly placed and ran on a bit. He might be better suited by the 1m 4f trip. If he handles the ground I would expect him to run well. Storm The Stars needed four attempts to get off the mark. He finally won a maiden last month. His runner-up effort behind Golden Horn reads well and he may improve for the step up in trip. But he has a good bit to find with the first two in the betting in my book. Mike De Kock saddles Tanaaf. He has been a bit unlucky in a big sales race last month. I believe he'll be better over this trip, but he's unproven in soft conditions. The rest of the field looks hardly good enough but Chester and rain softened ground can cause upsets from time to time. Nonetheless I have to side with the favourite Hans Holbein. If he improves for the new trip as expected he should be head and shoulders above the field. Hans Holbein @ 9/4 Betfred - 10pts win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing 4.55 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 6f I'll be having a speculative on Richard Fahey's Steve Prescott. On pure form this horse has a bit too find on his seasonal reappearance but there is plenty to like about him nonetheless. His penultimate performance last season over course and distance rates a good one. He missed the kick but stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. Off a 2lb higher mark he couldn't follow up subsequently, but in most starts here at Chester he ran rather well. However he seemed to develop a habit of starting slowly, which would be a problem today. He's never been tried on really soft ground before, however his sire is one with a good record in these conditions usually. Furthermore he should improve with age. What makes him interesting is the fact that he's first time out as gelding today. That may well help him to overcome temperamental problems and he could be able to improve a bit. As a fresh horse today, now gelded, you would expect him to be ready for this meeting given who the trainer and owner is. Draw isn't ideal, but it is a wide open race with a good but over bet favourite. Steve Prescott @ 25/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Thursday was a day with mixed feelings - Hans Holbein finished the job nicely. His victory meant the day is finished in profit. But all other three selections ran badly. None did even go close or was in contention when the field turned for home. Disappointing. ---------- 3.45 Chester: Class 2 Handicap, 5f This race is as open as it gets. The two horses on top of the betting are fair individuals with decent chances to go close, without instilling any confidence and they look short into. Godolphin’s Wanting has to prove that he can act on soft ground, while Snap Shots seems to be on a high enough mark for the moment. Anonymous John has performed really during the winnter on the All-Weather but went up in the mark to 95 without winning in his last six starts. He looks vulnerable off top weight. The one that looks a tick overpriced in this field is Rita’s Boy. The mount of Franny Norton has ran well on his last two turf starts, finishing runner-up on both occasions behind good winners who followed on from that in good style. He’s been certainly unlucky not to finish closer lto, when he didn’t get a clear run until the final furlong marker, and even wasn’t beaten up. He surely could have finished closer. He was hampered and knocked out of his rhythm on his penultimate start soon after the start, he also hang a bit in the closing stages but was just beaten by a tight margin by a well handicapped individual. who scored subsequently again. He went up in the mark for these last two performances but could still be better than his current mark off 82 judged on those runs. He will need to bring his A-game though. He acts on soft ground though and the only slight concern today is the draw which would ideally a bit closer to the rail. Nonetheless I feel he has a cracking chance in this field. Rita's Boy @ 11/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: Better Racing Sunday, 10/05/2015: Prix des Poulains The French 2.000 Guineas should be all about the horse that I'm most excited to finally see having his comeback run: Highland Reel. Whaven’t seen him racing this season yet, so it’s still unclear how he came over the winter and whether he has matured and improved from two to three. But as a juvenile he was pure class. I loved the way this inexperienced colt won his maiden at Gowran Park. Unaware of what his job was, interested in anything but not the race, yet pulling clear with so much ease. Poetry in motion. I loved even more how he produced his phenomenal turn of foot in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes. Obviously he has yet to be really tested but that may change this Sunday in the Prix des Poulains. Highland Reel missed the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, which was a real shame as I backed him ante-post. Of course Wwithout having seen him this season yet it can’t be said with certainty, but I believe Highland Reel would have been a real danger for Gleneagles. Anyway, he’s now going to France to get his classic season under way. The Prix des Poulains is normally a rough race, where in-running luck is very much required. It’s not always the best horse that wins. However Highland Reel is a rather uncomplicated horse who wouldn’t mind being up with the pace. A good draw in seven should see him securing a perfect position and therefore he could be able to avoid any possible trouble. Class should tell after all. With that in mind I’m happy enough to back him at 9/2 which looks big enough and I would expect this price to diminish the closer we get to the race. Highland Reel @ 9/2 Racebets – 10pts win