Better Racing

[robertob]

Arlington: Secretariat Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f Today is the day where Highland Reel can pay back - pay back for what I lost on him when being bullish enough before the season to believe he's the winner of the English 2000 Guineas. He hasn't quite developed into the superstar I hoped. But he is a very good horse, nonetheless. Runner-up in the French Derby and fair winner of a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood - he deserves a shot on a Group 1. Today is the best chance he'll ever find to win a top level race. The Secretariat Stakes is not a bad race, in fact the field is competitive. But he's probably the most talented horse in the field - however he's also on the juice today. What I mean: Lasix! My stance on lasix is clear. I condemn it. It is performance enhancing. Particularly for those European horses who travel over to the US and are on it for the first time. It can have a major impact on performance. If Seamie Heffernan keeps things simple and stays out of trouble, I can't see how Highland Reel can lose this. Highland Reel @ 7/4 Paddy Power - 10pts Win

[robertob]

Arlington: Beverly D. Stakes (Group 1), 1m 1f 110y Highland Reel has kicked proceedings off for Aiden O'Brien in most dramatic style. Stable mate Wedding Vow may well be able to follow-on from there. She three year old filly has shown nice progress this season and was an excellent runner-up behind top class Legatissimo at Glorious Goodwood - a very strong piece of form which makes her. However given the fact that she is on lasix for the first time today, may see her improving big time. I said it before and won't get tired of it: Lasix is performance enhancing and we see it time and time again when the Europeans come over to the US and race on it for the first time. Wedding Vow @ 3/1 William Hill - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Arlington: Arlington Million (Group 1), 1m 2f Two Europeans that tick plenty of the right boxes here: the German Wake Forest, who is a multiple Group 3 winner in his native country; and the French Bookrunner, who hasn't hugely impressive form in the book, but steps up to 10f for the first time, which on pedigree can work in his favour. What both have in common: A good draw and first time on the juice (lasix). I want to narrow it down to one selection. While the German horse is clearly the form choice, he is one who usually comes from off the pace. That could be difficult here. Bookrunner in contrast can lead and will probably do so in the experienced hands of Gerald Mosse. Bookrunner may simple be a late developer. He showed a bit of promise in two starts this season, but this new trip can potentially bring out the best of him. Bookrunner @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.10 Dundalk: Handicap. 6f A really competitive sprint handicap on the Dundalk All-Weather with 107 rated Russian Soul topping the field. However not many seem to be well handicapped today. Certainly not the three top weights. Progressive Have A Nice Day is a fair favourite, given he has been in splendid form lately and may still be on the upward. The drop in trip is against him though. Consistent Master Speaker has found a way to get his head in front this year. Can he do it again? I wouldn't bet on it. Togoville loves it on the All-Weather. The trip should be too sharp but off his current mark he has a chance if he could lead at a pace that suits him. Ger Lyons' Trinity Force responded well to the change in trip and first time blinkers the last time. He can be competitive today again, although his trainer voiced slight concerns over the slow surface. I'm most intrigued by old boy An Saighdiur who may have found a good opportunity to score. He certainly acts around here, is is a course specialist who's best over 6f and while he didn't set the world alight in recent weeks, he's dropped to a dangerous mark. He was a good 3rd in a Naas Handicap earlier this year off an 8lb higher mark. So I feel he is overpriced today. An Saighdiur @ 14/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win --------- 4.15 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m 2f 150y Despite a wide draw and the drop in trip potentially not quite suitable, Botany Bay makes appeal to me big time. Forgive him his latest run, he is better judged on his penultimate start when winning a hot Handicap at Down Royal, which is extremely strong form given how it worked out subsequently. Botany Bay is still learning the game could have easily more offer from his current mark. Botany Bay @ 8/1 Betfred - 5pts Win --------- 2.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f Couple of interesting sorts in this competitive race. Favourite Almodovar makes appeal given that he is sure to appreciate the step up in trip when attempting to win three on the bounce. He may well defy his new mark here but is a very short prices considering the depth of the field. Fellow "I'm on a hat-trick" More Mischief is an interesting alternative from the bottom of the weights. She looks a grinder and could appreciate the uphill finish. Her wide draw is a slight concern as well as it seems that she may need a bit of cut in the ground to be seen at her best, particularly stepping up in grade now. The other three year old in the race, Keep In Line, is the most intriguing contender. He's certainly very well bred and a full-brother to smart Kassiano. He won at Windsor the other day a shade cosily, and the 4lb rise for that effort could easily underestimate him. He has plenty of stamina but seems also speedy, so whatever way the race evolves, he should be equipped. The wide draw is a concern though. However there aren't too many in the race who're likely to storm off to the front, so he may be able to overcome this. He has a very capable 3lb claimer in the saddle too. This horse is certainly overpriced. Keep In Line @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts Win --------- 3.45 Pontefract: Flying Fillies' Stakes (Listed), 6f Eddie Lynam won't bring his classy filly Byzantium over for a nice day out. She has top credentials to win this Listed contast in fact. The three year old was desperately unlucky not to get up on the line in a hot little race at Laas the last time. Conditions will suit today perfectly, as she has a good draw and should appreciate the stiff uphill finish. Byzantium @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win --------- 4.20 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m Ultra competitive little Handicap - each and everyone of the six runners has legitimate claims. Therefore I feel La Dorotea is overpriced here given that she wasn't disgraced in a really hot race at Chester the last time where she had to overcome a wide draw. She was highly tried in Listed class before which was beyond her, when following on from a good course and distance success here at Ponti. She's only 2lb higher today but has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle. La Dorotea @ 10/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win --------- 5.20 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f Be Lucky is impossible to oppose here given she is 2/2 over coure and distance and only 3lb above her last winning mark. She has the pole position draw and the speed to move forward from there. A bold bid is expected and if she is in the same mood as the last time she was here, she's very hard to beat. Be Lucky @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

7.25 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 1m Strange little race. Hard to know what to expect from any of these. There is hardly and positive form on offer, and the unknown factor of the Chelmsford polytrack is another point adding to the intrigue of this race. By no means I can have the favourite here. Yes, Algaith is a 3yo and may have an advantage through weight for age but he hasn't shown enough to warrant him backing at a short price, considering the trip may just too far him after all. Maftool might enjoy the deep surface here. Hard to know whether he is in the same form as he was at Meydan earlier this year. He also has to give weight away, which is never easy for 3yo against older horses. Hard to fancy Calling Out either. You have to hope for plenty of improvement. Castlelyons may surprise. But the value here is certainly Baltic Night, who has performed with credit on the All-Weather in the past, usually does well on a deeper surface on turf and has been mostly competitive this year. 1m can stretch his stamina, but this small field should play perfectly to his strength. Baltic Night @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts Win

[robertob]

4.15 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 7f This is an intriguing contest with a handful of promising contenders. Dramatically improving Ian's Memory tops the market and despite not being flashy, he may just does enough to win and could still have more to offer. Though the handicappers doesn't take any prisoners with him. Exchequer loves the All-Weather and the track. He's consistent. This big, scopey gelding should make good of a perfect draw. Claim The Roses ran a massive race the last time behind subsequent Great St Wilfrid Handicap Don't Touch. I'm slightly concerned about his wide draw though. Windy Citi won with bit in hand the other day, the drop in trip shouldn't be a problem. Lightly raced Mulzamm will appreciate this trip more than 6f on pedigree. Whether he is good enough against this field remains to be seen. Most of those mentioned above are decent prices. Hard to distinguish them. The one certainly overpriced is Dutiful Son, though. Well bred, impressive 6f winner at Chelmsford in April, he was not seen to best effect over 1m the last two starts. Way, way too far off the pace on his penultimate run, and also not in the best position the last time when third behind Windy City. The trip may also stretch him. The drop to 7f looks ideal, however and I would assume himto be ridden much positive from a healthy draw. It's Nicky Mackay's only ride on the day - it could be a good one. ? Dutiful Son @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

7.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f It's a poor enough contest and that may enable to weight Pretty Bubbles to overcome a big mark, but I'm surprised to see 3yo old Little Prairie available at 4/1 with StanJames, which surely is at least a full point too big. She didn't run her race in tough conditions event at Leicester the last time - but that against much better opposition, not favoured by the weights at all - a performance to forgive. She is better judged on her impressive maiden win at Lingfield. She romped home from the front that day. She got lose easily in a decent enough field. First time in a Handicap now, she can be capable of overcoming an opening mark off 81, particularly against this opposition here. Not saying she is a banker, but she is certainly the most likely winner and a big price for that. Little Prairie @ 4/1 - 10pts Win ------------- 8.10 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m Yeager is a massive price here judged on his strong penultimate run. He's on the same mark when finishing runner-up behind Fire Fighting. A form that works out really well. The drop to 1m shouldn't really be a problem, neither should be the All-Weather. He has been runner-up in a hot race off a lb higher mark last year at Lingfield over 1m. He hasn't won since his days as a three year old and that is a concern. But he raced subsequently of mid 90 marks in very competitive races and has shown here and there some good form. He's dangerous today I feel. Yeager @ 20/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.55 Ffos Las: Class 4 Handicap, 5f This is a good opportunity for Cruise Tothelimit to score. He goes well on rain softened ground and has been in fine form this year. A strong runner-up in a class 2 Chester Handicap earlier this season is clearly the top form on offer here. He drops down to a very handy mark and has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle. A bold bid is expected. Cruise Tothelimit @ 7/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.40 York: Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1), 1m 4f Plenty of these fillies have ran against each other this year. They share more or less similar form. it seems, whoever turns up on the day, wins it. Says, I can't have Covert Love at all at 3/1. She is the favourite after her excellent Irish Oaks win, but let's be honest, she has had the run of the race at the Curragh. But does that make her twice as good as Curvy? No. No way. However it is the French filly Sea Calisi who intrigues me most and who is potentially a big price at 9/1. She was late foal, born in May, is still lightly raced, pretty unexposed and comes here after an impressive Group 2 success at Saint-cloud. She should be primed for this and won't mind the ground. Sea Calisi @ 9/1 Betfred - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.05 York: Handicap, Class 2, 1m As competitive and wide open as it gets, but I like the big price for Melvin The Grate. Surely still an improving individual, he has to show further improvement to feature, but may well do second time out after a break. He ran well at Sandown last month, travelling well throughout. But this here today will suit better. He needs a fast pace, which is guaranteed, and he won't mind any soft in the going description. His mark off 95 and light weight gives him a good chance to feature. Melvin The Grate @ 25/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win