Carl Posted July 9, 2005 Share Posted July 9, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections I see Hazewind is running again today. 245 Nott RP 9/2 only 7 in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 20, 2005 Author Share Posted July 20, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections This is my first bet for a while but one i fancy tomorrow is... 350 Sandown: REGENT STREET 5pts win @ 4.2 betfair 5pts place @ 1.71 betfair :o The horse is on a roll and narrowly missed out on completing the hatrick last time out when beaten by Amthemion, a well handicapped horse who won again on Tuesday. Regent Street was conceding 27lb's to the winner and did well to finish so close. He's up in class but still looks well handicapped to me and i think he can gain compensation tomorrow off a 1lb lower rating than his last race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 20, 2005 Author Share Posted July 20, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Sorry, I just moticed I havent updated the bank from the last selection Selections: 21 W/L: 7/21 SR: 33% P/L: +83.06pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 22, 2005 Author Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Unplaced :( Selections: 22 W/L: 7/22 SR: 32% P/L: +73.06pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 22, 2005 Author Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections 350 Newbury - ECHELON 5pts win @ 4.6 betfair 5 pts place @ 1.8 betfair He is highly thought of and is due a win having had a couple of unlucky runs recently. The danger is Teeba who would have been a force in the 1000 guineas if it wasnt for injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 22, 2005 Author Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections 305 York - SALVIATI 5pts win @ 7.8 betfair 5pts place @ 2.38 betfair This looks a cracking each way bet with 8 runners in the race and the horse in good form. 6 of Salviatis 7 career wins have come in the months of July and August so it looks like he is trained to peak at this time of year. His last 3 runs have suggested he will win soon. 3 runs ago he was behind a good favourite in Trinculo, not quite getting the clear passage he wanted but was only narrowly beaten. Next time out the ground went against him a touch at York - he needs it firmish. Last time out he finished 2nd after missing the break at the start. He will need to start better than last time but he is in good enough form to mount a strong challenge today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 22, 2005 Author Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections 435 Wolves - ANDURIL 5pts win @ 14.5 betfair 5pts place @ 3.5 betfair Anduril will be pleased to return to Wolverhampton where he enjoyed some success earlier this year, giving respectable form figures of 12531423. His last run there was in March. He has since been campaigned on turf and run respectfully of marks in the late 60's winning off 67 over todays distance at Haydock. He has struggled a bit since then due to a combination of a rise in the weights and a rise in class. He drops back into Class 5 which is more to his liking and is back down to a mark of 70, which although 3lb's higher than his last win, is one he can win off judging by his effort last time out, when he was denied a clear run off a mark of 74. He almost certainly would have been placed in that race which makes him a cracking each way bet off todays 4lb lower mark. The favourite Spectait, is the obvious danger and could run up a sequence, as Prescotts tend to. He isnt straightforward himself though and has misbehaved in some of his races so isnt one to take a short price on perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 22, 2005 Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections 350 Newbury - ECHELON 5pts win @ 4.6 betfair 5 pts place @ 1.8 betfair He is highly thought of and is due a win having had a couple of unlucky runs recently. The danger is Teeba who would have been a force in the 1000 guineas if it wasnt for injury. great price AK well done on an easy winner:clap Anduril placed also, 2nd @ 7/1 so your odds were extremely good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 23, 2005 Author Share Posted July 23, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Cheers Bowles Selections: 25 W/L: 9/25 SR: 36% P/L: +83.56pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 23, 2005 Author Share Posted July 23, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections 235 Newbury - GO TECH 5pts win @ 28.0 betfair 5pts place @ 7.6 betfair I must confess that the excellent Trainbairn off EBA pointed me in this ones direction so if he's reading this, apologies for nicking your tip!! After some more research myself i've concluded the price is a massive one and must be backed. Trainabairn indicated that the horses best conditions are 10f, on good ground or better and in small fields. Looking at the horses form , his strike rate with these conditions are: 10 furlongs: 31% races with 11 runners or less: 31% Good ground or better: 24% If we combine all 3 of these, his record is: 52111, a strike rate of 60% The only concern i have is that he is rated 2lb's higher than his last win but at the prices available on betfair, he must be backed i feel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 24, 2005 Author Share Posted July 24, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Never in it... Selections: 26 W/L: 9/26 SR: 35% P/L: +73.56pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 24, 2005 Author Share Posted July 24, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections My mate Thyolo runs int he 145 at Newbury today but as the going has changed to Good / Soft, Soft in places i wont be touching him. watch him win ;) I fancy Woodcote in the big 2,45 race but again i wont be betting him as there are going doubts. One bet for me so far... 420 Pontefract DEVON FLAME 5pts win 4.2 betfair 5pts place 1.8 betfair He is in the form of his life and confirmed this yesterday with a quality 3rd place in a much higher class race than he is used to. Down a grade today, in a smaller field which will suit him no end, i also notice he is dropped 2lb's in the ratings from yesterday which baffles me a bit. I cant really see him being out of the frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 30, 2005 Author Share Posted July 30, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Selections: 27 W/L: 9/27 SR: 33% P/L: +63.56pts Stewards Cup - Goodwood PIETER BRUGHEL 5 pts win @ 50.0 >betfair 5 pts place @ 9.2 >betfair Hard to judge where the best place to be drawn is but Pieter Brughel could have the plum draw in 28. He is proven on the ground and previous form shows he is more than capable of running a big race off a mark of 86. He has run a series of good races off a mark like this. The stable is flying at the moment too. I couldn't believe the price when i saw it - i was anticipating about 16/1 :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 6, 2005 Author Share Posted August 6, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Selections: 28 SR: 9/28 (31%) P/L: +53.56pts 3 bets for me today. Have to rush out so no time for a write up - sorry about that :( Newm 150 - Escayola: 5pts win @ 18.0 betfair, 5 pts place @ 5.5 betfair Windsor 205 - Little Good Bay: 5pts win @ 12.0 betfair, 5 pts place @ 3.7 betfair Haydock 245- Thyolo: 5pts win @ 15.0 betfair, 5pts place @ 3.75 betfair Good luck with all your bets today :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 14, 2005 Author Share Posted August 14, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Update: Selections: 31 SR: 9/31 (29%) P/L: +23.56pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 16, 2005 Author Share Posted August 16, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Well im going to go hunting round for prices, which ill post once i've secured a bet.....otherwise i'll use the SP. 640 Nottm: GREY BOY 5 pts ew This looks to be an improving horse and was on a hatrick before soft ground found him out last time. 1 mile on decent ground is what he wants and although he's been raised 6lb's in the weights as a result of his last win, i think we can give him another chance as he has a valid excuse for his latest defeat. Amanda Perrett has an eyecatching record of 10 wins from 31 runners at the track over the last 5 seasons, which is another positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 20, 2005 Author Share Posted August 20, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Selections: 32 SR: 9/32 (28%) P/L: +13.56pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 20, 2005 Author Share Posted August 20, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections ECHELON 1.50 Sandown 10pts win @ 3.05 betfair Backed this last time out when it won very impressively by 4lengths in a strong looking race. This was Stoutes Guineas entry before she got injured so is looked upon as top class. I think she can follow up today. TANCRED TIMES 750 Lingfield 5 pts win @ 6.2 betfair 5 pts place @ 2.50 betfair Ran well last time out finishing 3rd of 15 after a lengthy break. He should therefore be primed for this race today off a mark he last won off in July 04. 520 Lingfield: Scarlet Flyer 10pts win @ 3.65 betfair He has looked ready to win since his debut and has been unlucky not to get off the mark since. Previous form has worked out well and the drop back down to 6f should suit him. I cant see him being out of the frame but unfortunately the odds are ruling out an each way bet so im going for the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 4, 2005 Author Share Posted September 4, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Back into minus figures :( Selections: 35 SR: 9/35 (26%) P/L: -16.44pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 4, 2005 Author Share Posted September 4, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections One that cathches my eye today and that definitely looks overpriced with betfair is: 320 York STORM CHASE 5pts win @ 24.0 betfair 5pts place @ 5.5 betfair Despite his only win coming over 6f, the trainer acknowledged this was probably on the sharp side for him. His best trip and ground in my opinion is the 7f on fast ground he encounters today. His figures over todays trip read 02322. Not spectactular, agreed, but looking a little closer at the form reveals that he filled the runners up position behind very well handicapped horses on 2 occasions. 2 July: Behind Whitethorne, a horse who has shot up the handicap since beating Storm Chase. The fact he has still run consistently off his higher marks shows that Whitethorne was a well handicapped horse that day. The selection reopposes today on much better terms at the weights and from a better draw and should get closer to Whitethorne than in early July. The other well handicapped horse he came up against was Daybreak Dancer who had won by wide margins on 2 occassions off the mark he opposed Storm Chase from. He is another who has shot up the weights since. The 2 runs sandwiched in between these 2 were over 1 mile and so excuses can be made. The Jarvis stable is in good form and has had 3 winners this week which is another plus and todays jockey rode a winner for the stable on Wednesday. Lets hope that Storm Chase can get me back into profit :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 4, 2005 Author Share Posted September 4, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections 430 York Dame de Noche 5pts win @ 19.5 betfair 5pts place @ 5.1 betfair Dame de Noche has slipped to her last winning mark of 87, without doing a great deal wrong. The recent form figures arent great but she ran respectably last time out, finishing midfield when having little chance of winning at the weights. 2 of the 3 runs before that were on softish ground which she has never acted upon and the run sandwiched in between these, she met trouble in running and would have finished closer off a mark higher than todays, in a listed grade race. Im normally a bit wary of backing these types of horses with endless hard luck stories but the 2 runs previous to the ones described above were very promising. This is a wide open sprint and the prices available again look big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections Selections: 37 SR: 9/37 (24%) P/L: -36.44pts 230 Goodwood: Marching Song 5pts win betfair 6.4 5pts place betfair 2.38 Has put in some very decent efforts recently and i think the step up to 7f will suit him - he ran very well over that trip on his seasonal reappearance. He deserves to win a race soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: AK's Flat Selections The rut continues :( A big priced speculative bet for me today.. 250 Carlisle GRAZE ON 5pts win @ 60.0 betfair 5pts place @ 9.8 betfair He raced over 5 furlongs for the first 4 races of his life where his form figures read an impressive 2125. Has since been campaigned over longer distances. Is slipping down the handicap despite showing signs of returning to form recently. A disappointing run last time needs to be put behind him - its possible the soft ground was against him though. He looks like his running off a winnable mark today of 73 - a lifetime low - hopefully the return to 5 furlongs will prompt a return to winning ways. (For the horse and for me!! :o:o:o:o ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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