National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm

[Aidymac]

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[beaker1]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm 2015 National Hunt Chase Trends 3 of the last 4 winners contested a Grade 1 novice chase earlier in the season 3 of the last 4 winners were officially top-rated 10 of the last 13 winners since the race conditions were altered had finished first or second last time out Favourites have won 3 of the last 5 runnings since penalties were dispensed with 4 of the last 8 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season 5 and 6 year-olds are 1-67 since 1989 No winner in the last 13 runnings since the race conditions were altered had contested less than 3 chases Paul Nicholls is 0-15

[Aidymac]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm Cheltenham 4:40 - Toby Balding National Hunt Chase(AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) (Listed) (1) 4m This is a wide open race, and the trends can be a great guide when trying to find a value pick in an amateur riders' race. THEATRE QUEEN, trained by Mr M Wall, looks a nice bit of value at 33/1 with SkyBet and ticks a lot of boxes in my opinion. There have been some big priced winners of this race in recent years, with four winners at an SP of 25/1 or bigger since 2003. This 8 year old has only had 5 career runs to date, and beat Chestnut Annie by 33 lengths here at Cheltenham over 3m2f on her only run at the track. Course form can be extremely important around here as it is a specialist track so it's a major positive that the horse has winning course form. She went on to Stratford after her Cheltenham win and bolted up there, in what was quite a strong Hunters Chase. She refused at Taunton but was 2nd behind Tony Star at Ludlow and was 4th behind Wayward Prince in the Grimthorpe a couple of weeks ago, doing her best work late on which was eye-catching. I think she is such a big price because she hails from a small yard, but she should appreciate the 4 miles and looks a tasty each-way price. She runs off a feather-weight 10-13 here and also has a 5 pound claimer on top. >>>>> Theatre Queen - 1 Point each-way @ 33/1 Sky Bet https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm ...4.40 Cheltenham: Toby Balding National Hunt Chase (4m) The longest race of the Festival and this year named in honour of former trainer Toby Balding. In recent years the race has gone to form but in the past we have seen winners at 33/1, 33/1 and 40/1. Irish trained runners have only won it twice in the last ten years and it usually pays to follow the top jockeys in this Amateur race. Six of the best; Very Wood – Winner of the Albert Bartlett race here last year when he beat Deputy Dan and has had a mixed first season over fences. He won at Galway on his debut but was then pulled up in his next two races. Last time out he came back to form at Navan in a Grade 2 contest and it’s hard to know what to expect next. He will have his supporters due to his Festival form alone but not one to trust 100%. Sego Success – A 7yo trained by Alan King who has only had three races over fences and won his last two. He’s gone up 15lbs in the ratings and is a real staying type that should enjoy this marathon trip. Last time out at Warwick he won a Listed race in good style from Grand Vision and Deputy Dan and looks sure to be thereabouts with the conditions of the race suiting. Cause Of Causes – Owned by JP McManus and ridden by the very good Amateur Jamie Codd who has won this race before. Well in on ratings here with many of these and is entitled to be thereabouts for trainer Gordon Elliott. Doesn’t win that often but has the ability to bag a big race such as this. Return Spring – Always runs well at Cheltenham which is a big plus, not been too successful since switching to chasing but did win at Exeter from Highland Retreat which was a good effort. Stays extremely well as long as the going is not too soft so hopefully will find conditions to suit here and a decent run can be expected at a fair price. Cogry – Has won over hurdles and fences and is quite useful on his day although strictly on the book he needs to find a few pounds with some of these. He actually fell on his debut over fences at Uttoxeter but has won twice since including over a trip of 3m2f at Warwick last time out. An improving sort for a yard which has won this race before and could go well for a long way. Doing Fine – Finished second to Cogry last time out at Warwick which was his best effort over fences so far. Was a decent novice hurdler and beat the useful Carraig Mor so you would have to think there was more to come over fences. The Curtis yard won this race with Teaforthree back in 2012 and he was a late maturing type so I wouldn’t be too surprised if this one has more to give. Verdict: Wide open contest and being a four-mile race we have plenty of doubts surrounding the stamina of one or two of these. The favourite Very Wood was a winner here last season and the fact that he has chosen this race rather than the RSA is worth noting. His strength is his stamina and on that score alone has to be feared by all. Very Wood 2pts 7/2 Paddy Power

[beaker1]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm Toby Balding National Hunt Chase Gigginstown have had a double u-turn by eventually declaring Very Wood for this race after it was announced last week he would run in the RSA having previously been on target for this contest and he is now likely to start favourite (three of the last five favourites have won) under Nina Carberry who has not had the best of luck in this race having been beaten after leading at the final fence in three of the last five runnings. That means Wounded Warrior misses out but the owner also run Thunder And Roses who was a bit disappointing last time but having impressed on his previous start and shapes like a real marathon-trip horse of the future. Thunder And Roses is officially top rated on 148 just 1lb ahead of Very Wood and 2lb ahead of Cause Of Causes and Perfect Gentlemen so the Irish gave a very strong hand. The National Hunt Chase is a race on the change following three significant alterations to the race conditions in 2002, 2006 and 2010 leading to a superior class of horse required these days required to win. Three of the last four winners were officially top rated. Five and six-year-olds are just 1-67 since 1989 which makes me wary of backing the six-year-old Very Wood even if he won the Albert Bartlett last season. Also aged six are Cogry and Vivaldi Collonges. The latter is trained by Paul Nicholls whose race record reads 0-15, many of which were well fancied and his challenger this year was outclassed in a match by Kings Palace at Newbury last time out. Cogry had previously just beat Doing Fine in the same Warwick chase (I Need Gold looks held back in fourth) that was won by last season’s NH Chase winner trained by Alan King. Doing Fine is interesting as he is bred to want marathon trips, his trainer has won this race and the RSA for staying novice chasers in recent seasons and he has been declared in first-time blinkers. Last season’s winning stable are represented by another Warwick this season in Sego Success and King’s principals in the four-miler down the years all ran at that Midlands track. Ten of the 13 winners since the race conditions alterations had finished first or second last time out which is against Broadway Buffalo (fell – fallers/u.r have approximately just a 3% strike rate at the Festival over the last decade), Cause Of Causes, Perfect Candidate, Return Spring (wears first-time blinkers), Royal Palladium, The Job Is Right, Thunder And Roses, Theatre Queen (who can’t give away lengths at the start like last time) and Top Totti. Cause Of Causes is the most interesting of them as he was prepping in the Boyne Hurdle and was second in last year’s Kim Muir. The Job Is Right was also prepping over hurdles last time out having been booked for second in the Thyestes behind Djakadam on his previous run until he exited at the last fence, His trainer, Michael Hourigan, has a love affair with the NH Chase and won it with Deejaydee who also prepped over hurdles. Willie Mullins runs Perfect Gentleman who is a ten-year-old which is older than I like. Short List Sego Success Doing Fine Thunder And Roses Cause Of Causes Conclusion SEGO SUCCESS has been trained for this race all season by Alan King who has won it with Old Benny and Midnight Prayer and like that pair and his Godsmejudge who was third two years ago, he chose to give him chasing experience at Warwick. DOING FINE also has good Warwick form and represents a stable with a win in the race and he is out of a mare who stayed 4m having won over that trip at Punchstown so he is interesting and particularly in first-time blinkers. THUNDER AND ROSES might be best of the Irish. He is the wrong price as officially the top-rated horse who promises to improve for a marathon trips. CAUSE OF CAUSES has a similar profile to Poker De Sivola in 2010 in that he is second-season chaser who was fancied for the Kim Muir the previous season so he has an experience edge. In fact, he fared better than Poker De Sivola in his Kim Muir as he would probably have beaten Spring Heeled last year if he didn’t belt the final fence. He prepped for this over hurdles so I am not concerned he was unplaced last time out. Of more concern is that he is 0-10 over fences and whether he will fully stay so he might be more of an each-way option.

[Smarty72]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm One from Uk and one from Ireland...... Sego Success - Win @ 11\2 PP Very good amateur Jockey in Sam Waley-Cohen and a trainer in Alan King who has won the race in the past. Sego Success has won his last 2 and looks to have plenty of stamina for this 4 mile test. Also looks an improving horse and could be a future national type horse. Cause Of Cause's - Win @ 8\1 Skybet Ran a good race when 2nd in the Kim Muir at the festival last year. Likely to stay the trip based on Irish National Run. Yet to win over fences but 4 miles looks perfect for this horse.

[scotty657]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm This could be a good one to watch and there's two for me at the prices. THEATRE QUEEN drew clear over a marathon distance at Stratford last year and could relish this test. The Mark Wall trained mare ran at Doncaster last week and probably blew her chance from the start by falling behind but still ran on for fourth. She looks and out and out stayer and is a big price if behaving at 33/1. BROADWAY BUFFALO is another of interest. Katie Walsh's mount fell when still in with a chance last time out and can still go on over fences. He scored comfortably in a Haydock C2 handicap previously and looks talented. Happy to take around 20/1.

[Binchy]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm I have Sego Success in an ante post multiple, but for the day based on trends I will be backing Ballyculla e/w @ 66/1 and Doing Fine e/w @ 12/1. A few key stats, the last thirteen winners have ran in at least three chases and all Paul Nicholls runners have been beaten (take out Vivaldi Collonges). Since 1989, 66 of the 67 5 or 6 year olds to run have been beaten (take out Very Wood and Cogry). the last 10 winners have ran 4 to 8 times since July (take out Cause of Causes, I Need Gold, Sego Success and Theatre Queen)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm The hardest part of this race is working out who will or wont stay and the two that I think have the class and also the staying power are Sego Success and Cogry. Sego Success jumps really well on the whole and his trainer fully expects him to stay the longer trip which is important as Alan King won this last year and he knows exactly what type of horse it takes to win the race. He powers on at the end of his races too which is always a good sign. Given his jumping, Cheltenham shouldnt hold any fears. SWC is on board too which in a race of this nature is a plus. Cogry is a horse touted to be a potential National type which suggests that connections expect him to stay these Marathon trips. He has some solid form in the book and I get the impression that he is much better than his last run where he probably kicked on too early in testing ground and got a bit lonely before the quirky second (Doing Fine) pushed him all the way to the line. I can see him being ridden with more restraint this time and his Amateur jockey is also a decent one. I dont think he has the class of the other selection but he is a worthy back up. Sego Success 11/2 Betvictor - 1 point Cogry 16/1 Skybet - 0.5 points

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm 4.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Sego Success @ 5/1 (Bet365) I'm a big fan of this horse and looks ready made for this. The way he finds off the bridle and over shorter trips shows he has stamina and guts in abundance and he's not a bad horse either. Looks to have a big chance on official ratings and represents a yard with a good record in this. Jumps soundly and has one of the top amateur riders on board today. Should see this out better than most and all things considered ought to go very well.

[arsenalfh]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm The top two in the market look pretty solid but we have yet to see the best of Return Spring in my opinion. Philip Hobbs' charge stays all day and loves it around these undulating stiff tracks with some nice form here as a hurdler. Two of the horses who finished behind him in a decent novice chase at Exeter back in December have won since while Kaki de la Pree was just touched off in a Grade 2 back in January. He was well backed to win the Grade 3 Classic Chase but he flopped there and next time at Wetherby. I'm hoping the first time blinkers and a return to Cheltenham spark him back into life and if he does show his talent here he should be right there at the finish. Return Spring - 1pt each-way @ 25/1 Skybet

[the_stumpster]

Re: National Hunt Steeple Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 4:40pm A very hard race. Sego Success and Cogry are my two against the field