Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 6 January 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Gillingham v Bristol City (19:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.63 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 7 January 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Preston North End v Walsall (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]106.41 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[kevshat]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th Wednesday TV preview: 4pts Preston vs Walsall - Under 2.5 goals 4/5 BetVictor A lot of times when the reward is so big the players tighten up and that could be even more the case here with the aim surely to be still in the tie when the second leg is played in the midlands. Although Preston will be looking to win the game I don’t think they will flood men forward and risk losing the game. Walsall are likely to set up tight so under 2.5 goals could be the way to go here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/preston-vs-walsall-betting-first-leg-at-deepdale-could-be-a-tight-affair

[MPLouis]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th On recent shots on target stats, Preston are comfortably and consistently higher rated than Walsall indicating a quality gap between the two teams. Odds of over 1.8 on Preston have appeared and I think these are worth taking. I don't like taking odds on bets, but there are some occasions where they are actually good value, and I think this could be one of them. Preston 1.82 18Bet Stake: 3 points

[allthethings]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th

Wednesday TV preview: 4pts Preston vs Walsall - Under 2.5 goals 4/5 BetVictor A lot of times when the reward is so big the players tighten up and that could be even more the case here with the aim surely to be still in the tie when the second leg is played in the midlands. Although Preston will be looking to win the game I don’t think they will flood men forward and risk losing the game. Walsall are likely to set up tight so under 2.5 goals could be the way to go here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/preston-vs-walsall-betting-first-leg-at-deepdale-could-be-a-tight-affair

If this were the case, you might expect to see something in past semis to suggest it, but you don't. All semis in this competition from 2006 on involving a clear favorite of 1.99 or under, there were 4 overs and 5 unders in the first leg, 3 overs and 3 unders in the return leg. Also, I don't see what Walsall have to fear: They won at Preston as recently as two years ago, and beat them at Walsall in September.

On recent shots on target stats, Preston are comfortably and consistently higher rated than Walsall indicating a quality gap between the two teams. Odds of over 1.8 on Preston have appeared and I think these are worth taking. I don't like taking odds on bets, but there are some occasions where they are actually good value, and I think this could be one of them. Preston 1.82 18Bet Stake: 3 points

My take on this competition is that sides consider it a bit of a nuisance early in the season, or a chance to try out some moving parts. There are a lot of upsets in the first two rounds, and then things settle down as sides see themselves one or two steps away from some silverware. That said, home favorites of 1.99 and under are 2-3-3 in the first leg of the semifinals in this competition from 2006 on, 3-1-1 in the second leg. These sides are both in League One and are only separated by 10 places (15 points). Walsall are solidly midtable, with a 3-5-4 away record, while Preston, even in 2nd in the league, own a 6-4-1 home record. Walsall with the return leg at home will think their chances excellent if they can escape with a draw, but a win wouldn't be out of the question either. Preston have a better away record than home record, and they won't panic if behind. The bettors are all over Preston. The odds on Walsall were 4.25 yesterday, 4.65 now. Yet, the odds on the draw have been stable. I think that's where the value is, at 3.57 at 5dimes, so that's where my money will go. The shots data is interesting, and may well lead to a clear home win. But I can't see the value at 1.82 when Preston don't need to win, no matter how much they want to. I'd want better odds than that, personally.

[allthethings]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th One thing I just noticed. There has been at least one upset in the semifinals every year since at least 2003. BetExplorer's odds only go back to 2004, and in every year since that there was at least one favorite of 1.99 or better, at least one underdog got 1 or 3 points.

[MPLouis]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th

One thing I just noticed. There has been at least one upset in the semifinals every year since at least 2003. BetExplorer's odds only go back to 2004' date=' and in every year since that there was at least one favorite of 1.99 or better, at least one underdog got 1 or 3 points.[/quote'] Cheers att - but it's complicated by being over two legs I suppose

[allthethings]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th There are few things more irritating than picking the dog to draw at 3.6 instead of the outright win at 5.6.

[MPLouis]

Re: Johnstones Paint Trophy > January 6th & 7th

On recent shots on target stats, Preston are comfortably and consistently higher rated than Walsall indicating a quality gap between the two teams. Odds of over 1.8 on Preston have appeared and I think these are worth taking. I don't like taking odds on bets, but there are some occasions where they are actually good value, and I think this could be one of them. Preston 1.82 18Bet Stake: 3 points

Result: Preston 0 Walsall 2 Bet lost Stake: 3 points Return: nil Profit/loss = -3 points Preston largely dominated from what I saw, but Walsall defended fairly well and took the lead late in the game, and added a second soon afterwards. Preston are clearly a strong attacking side, and I don't think the tie is over by any means.