chris34 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12.25 Southwell Not a great looking race with most of these having something to prove, but a few usual course specialists here. Arabian Flight has a fair record here and appears to be running into form on latest start over CD, up a 1lb for that effort and isn’t the obvious sort to follow up here and would require a career best now. Burnhope is yet to win here however has run well here previously, and has been running consistently this autumn until last time out when he was made too much use of from a wide draw. Morris a stronger booking this time though and yard going well. Wotalad has been going well recently but is however 9lb above last winning mark, form very patchy around here 2 very poor runs and 1 very good run, risky. For me Best Tamayuz has the best chance on form, he remains lightly raced with just the 8 starts, bolted up twice in some lowly affairs around here over 7f and 6f, only went down 1/4length last time out off revised mark and only up a 1lb for that and useful apprentice takes off 5lb today. Clearly still going the right way and could prove hard to beat. 2pt win Best Tamayuz 5/2 bet365 3.20 Kempton Picansort is starting to come back down the weights however has simply been going through the motions latest and more needed. Doc Hay has been running to a respectable level in claimers latest, however he isn’t over reliable these days. Salvatore Fury had no excuses last time out and handicap may just been in charge, up a further 1lb and needs a career best effort however has been in consistently good form recently. Doctor Parkes could be the answer, last scored off a mark of 81 in June, seen doing some great late work over CD last time out off a mark of 82 running off the same mark and has previously won off much higher marks. 2pt win Doctor Parkes 7/2 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December 520 kemp bosstime 51 habeshia 49 roysrocket 49 bosstime still looks capable of improving on his recent win in this weak race ......the form of that win looks strong in context of this race and he should make a bold bid to go in again 7/2 looks good value bosstime 2pts win 7/2 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December I always check out the 5F races at Southwell as I have a theory that 9 times out of 10 there is a huge advantage to being drawn low Any horse drawn in the 1, 2 or 3 stalls that is a CD winner and preferably a front runner is worth backing EW if it's a big price (Royal Bajan, stall 2, won at the last meeting at 33/1) So today I'm going for ....... Sou 2.30 - Shawkantango - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Stall 1 he's not a front runner but that's not stopped him winning 7 times over CD. He's not particularly well handicapped as he's 3lbs above last winning mark in a hcap but has been running into form in two runs since a break and should be cherry ripe now. Usually wins in class 6 these days and this is class 5........but if the low draw gives him an edge then he could overcome these negatives (and of course without these negatives he wouldn't be 25/1 :lol ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December 230 southwell mops angel 51 scoreline 49 indian tinker 49 shawkatango 48 mops angel looks the one to be on here .....but huge negative is the jockey whos got zero experience really ......this will be an interesting race to watch pan out because hes also drawn high .........so some big negatives but with such a strong rating the 9/1 ew is luring me in ........cant resist a value bet so lets play mops angel 2pts ew 9/1 corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeuppy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December 12.55 southwell - queen of skies 1.25 southwell - reve de nuit 1.55 southwell - milady Eileen 2.30 southwell - indian tinker 3.00 southwell - knockamany bends 3.30 southwell - speightowns kid 2.20 Kempton - what a dandy 2.50 Kempton - middle east pearl 3.20 Kempton - Salvatore fury 3.50 Kempton - elysian fields 4.20 Kempton - waldnah 4.50 Kempton - mountainside 5.20 Kempton - delightful sleep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December I always check out the 5F races at Southwell as I have a theory that 9 times out of 10 there is a huge advantage to being drawn low Any horse drawn in the 1, 2 or 3 stalls that is a CD winner and preferably a front runner is worth backing EW if it's a big price (Royal Bajan, stall 2, won at the last meeting at 33/1) So today I'm going for ....... Sou 2.30 - Shawkantango - EW at 25/1 bog wm hill Stall 1 he's not a front runner but that's not stopped him winning 7 times over CD. He's not particularly well handicapped as he's 3lbs above last winning mark in a hcap but has been running into form in two runs since a break and should be cherry ripe now. Usually wins in class 6 these days and this is class 5........but if the low draw gives him an edge then he could overcome these negatives (and of course without these negatives he wouldn't be 25/1 :lol ) Recovered brilliantly to finish 3rd. Theory looks good indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December yeah.........if he hadn't given the field 6 or 7 lengths at the start he'd have won in a canter ! The horse in stall 2 was fatally injured during the race (when looking like being placed or finishing 4th) and the first 3 home came from stalls 1, 3 and 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December 520 kemp bosstime 51 habeshia 49 roysrocket 49 bosstime still looks capable of improving on his recent win in this weak race ......the form of that win looks strong in context of this race and he should make a bold bid to go in again 7/2 looks good value bosstime 2pts win 7/2 bet365 bosstime wins easily ........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Re: Flat Racing 16th December yeah.........if he hadn't given the field 6 or 7 lengths at the start he'd have won in a canter ! The horse in stall 2 was fatally injured during the race (when looking like being placed or finishing 4th) and the first 3 home came from stalls 1, 3 and 4 Its a draw bias that I hadn't noticed until last night. Just been looking at the ATR draw check feature. There have been 14 races over 5f at Southwell with 10+ runners in 2014 (+1 which they didn't use the stall to start), 11 of the winners have come from stall 4 and below and none above stall 7... it will be an interesting angle for the 5f class 6 handicap there on Thursday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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