2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections

[BillyHills]

Thought it would be a good idea for a thread to list all of our Ante-Post thoughts on the current NH season. Selections can be for any race not just the Cheltenham Festival. Some reasoning as to why you think its a decent bet/price would be appreciated. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Wrote this in my NH thread and the only Ante-Post i have had so far; Mares Hurdle: 1pt Aurore D'Estruval 8/1 >BetVictor (10/1 at PP available) Interesting day at Wetherby and in the Mares race Aurore D'Estruval was very impressive, not actually sure what she beat but is on target to run in the David Nicholson race at the Festival in March and has been cut into as short as 5/1 for that but still available at 8/1 with BetVictor and that looks reasonable when you think Annie Power is the short priced fav and she may go chasing.

[mowgli77]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections I can see Rocky Creek winning a big race this season but I'm unsure if he's a grade 1 horse and future gold cup winner or if he'll go the Grand National route again. I want to back him ante post for something but I'm waiting a while to see if there are clear plans in place for his season. I was really impressed by Sign Of A Victory but I want to see what he finds off the bridle. I think he's going the Fighting Fifth route and I have an eye on him for the Champion Hurdle. I try get my ante post bets on somewhere between December and January and although some value is gone by then the plans seem clearer. As for this weekends Betfair Chase I'm all over Silviniaco Conti like a tramp on chips. Listening to Nicholls before the race it seemed clear to me that he needed the run to blow off the cobwebs in the Charlie Hall and this was more of a target. Dynaste might need the run and for me could be better over a slightly shorter trip and Cue Card has questionable stamina for me when a race is truly run over a proper staying distance. Let's hope Haydock have got their bloody distances right this season as both they and Wetherby are a joke. I want to see SC dominate the race, kick on and win handily.

[beaker1]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Djakadam (Willie Mullins) – HENNESSY GOLD CUP saturday 29/11/2014 - 7/1 with hills Djakadam who could be anything in his second season over fences. He had only three starts over the bigger obstacles last season but made quite an impression winning on his first two starts before heading to Cheltenham for the JLT Chase where he came down when going well four fences from home, He currently heads the market for the Hennessy Gold Cup and given the fine record of second season chasers in the race, it looks a good place to start him off. He is still very lightly-raced and given his potential to improve I think he is worth taking a chance on in the Hennessy gold cup.

[Toast]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Reckon the 3m championship races are up for grabs this year. Lord Windermere will again be aimed at the GC with hopefully good ground, whilst the rest of last years mob are not upto it IMO. One that could come into the reckoning, judging by his steady improvement is Double Ross trained by Twiston Davies. Threw in a career best in the Charlie Hall and rus in the Betfair on Saturday. Has shown a liking for Cheltenham and stays 3m well. Looks to prefer soft ground. The Pillar Chase at the January meeting looks favourable. He has an entry in the Ryanair, best price 25/1. Only quote for the GC is on betfair at 66/1. He is a stayer in the making.

[corky]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections champion bumper 11/03/2015 valerian bridge 16/1pp maybe a tad to early to put up a wullie mullins bumper,he will have more to unleash in the coming months, but this 5 year old gelding keeps on improving in his 3 winning runs,and always seems to finish well,and although he has no immediate entries, he is certainly on my watch list

[BillyHills]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections

I can see Rocky Creek winning a big race this season but I'm unsure if he's a grade 1 horse and future gold cup winner or if he'll go the Grand National route again. I want to back him ante post for something but I'm waiting a while to see if there are clear plans in place for his season.

Saw Nicholls talking about this one Phil. He said he is best fresh and wasn't sure whether to bypass the Festival and go straight to Aintree for the National. Wont run in him in the Welsh version as its too testing to do both Nationals. Hennessy will be his target for this year and it wouldn't surprise me to see him saved for the national after that.

[shmee17]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Bellshill Champion Bumper @ 25/1 bet365 This Kings Theatre gelding runs at Thurles, tomorrow, Thursday and expected starting price of around 8/11 in the bumper. If wins well tomorrow, the 25/1 could look like value. Again it's Willie Mullins and he has an massive selection of horses he could send to Cheltenham for the bumper but this one was tipped to me a few months back to watch out for and @ 25/1, I've had a punt.

[corky]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections

Bellshill Champion Bumper @ 25/1 bet365 This Kings Theatre gelding runs at Thurles, tomorrow, Thursday and expected starting price of around 8/11 in the bumper. If wins well tomorrow, the 25/1 could look like value. Again it's Willie Mullins and he has an massive selection of horses he could send to Cheltenham for the bumper but this one was tipped to me a few months back to watch out for and @ 25/1, I've had a punt.

that is one i was waiting for a run,before i parted with any cash,and i agree with you,if he wins with a bit to spare he could be single digits

[BillyHills]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections

Bellshill Champion Bumper @ 25/1 bet365 This Kings Theatre gelding runs at Thurles, tomorrow, Thursday and expected starting price of around 8/11 in the bumper. If wins well tomorrow, the 25/1 could look like value. Again it's Willie Mullins and he has an massive selection of horses he could send to Cheltenham for the bumper but this one was tipped to me a few months back to watch out for and @ 25/1, I've had a punt.

Cut into 16/1 at PP and 20/1 bet365:ok

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Arkle Trophy Chase -Un de Sceaux (5/2) His aggressive attacking style is fantastic to watch but under the pressure of an Arkle over stiff Cheltenham fences I just get the feeling he could throw in a little mistake. Couple that with the fact he's never raced on anything better than soft I can't have him at this price. He's that type of horse who could make those who backed him or opposed him very stupid. -Vautour (8/1) I have a feeling Vautour could be Ricci's Gold Cup horse in the future as he jumps like someone who could do better over further. His Sire has produced the likes of Sir Des Champs and Quevega who were class acts over longer distances and I wouldn't be surprised to see Vautour follow suit. With stable companion Un de Sceaux for the Arkle I reckon Ricci will be happy to go for the JLT. -Josses Hill (10/1) Had a setback earlier in the season which is why we only saw Josses Hill over fences for the first time coming up to Christmas and he looked very inexperienced on his reappearance. He showed he will stay the JLT trip in that race but I reckon he'll go for the Arkle which looks less competitive and he was a very impressive 2m novice hurdler. He should come on a lot for that run but with not long left to Cheltenham now he's got some catching up to do against rivals who have three or four starts over fences already. Josses Hill kept Dunraven Storm 10L back who has form with Vibrato Valtat but with the way Dunraven Storm faded I would think that race was too soon for him and he would have hated the ground. -Clarcam (10/1) Clarcam is a good horse but I can't believe he's so short for an Arkle. Just days before his clash against Vautour bets were matched at nearly 200/1 for Gordon Elliot's charge to win the Arkle and I can't believe he's so short after winning a race which completely fell a part on heavy ground. I'm reading little into that race as Vautour smashed Clarcam on the bridle giving weight on his chasing debut. -Gilgamboa (12/1) Was mighty impressive in Limerick over 2m 3.5f so I see no reason why they would drop him back down in trip for the Arkle. He won on heavy over 2m 4f last season and on breeding he could be a 3m horse in time so it looks like he'll head for the JLT. -Ptit Zig (20/1) Has had a wonderful campaign so far but Nicholls has said he will head for the JLT unless the going gets soft. -Vibrato Valtat (20/1) Already a Grade 1 and 2 winner I feel this Nicholls horse is being underrated here. He's not an eye catching jumper with a big arcing leap like Vautour but he's quick and effective over his fences which is what you want in an Arkle. He travels strongly in his races and likes a good solid gallop which he will get in this contest especially with Un de Sceaux in the field. Irish Saint went into their Sandown clash as favourite but Nicholls admitted Vibrato Valtat had real ability after the race although he was also keen to stress the talent Irish Saint has over a longer trip. Vibrato Valtat has shown a really good attitude learning a great deal with each start and proved he's not just a bridle horse when he hit the front earlier than he would have liked, idled a bit before battling back to regain the lead over the smart Three Kingdoms. -The Rest Three Kingdoms was beaten fair and sqaure by Vibrato Valtat and I just feel the Nicholls horse has more scope for improvement so I can't really see him reversing the form. Sgt Reckless is a proper spring horse so I do think he's one to watch out for over the coming months but I don't think he has the class to win an Arkle and I thought Channon's decision to send him back over hurdles over Christmas was strange. Court Minstrel looks better over hurdles although Grumeti will relish the drier ground at Cheltenham and looks a little big at 40/1. He did well winning a decent novice chase a few days ago after being very weak in the betting and I reckon he'll be better when Cheltenham comes. -The Verdict With a few of these looking set for the JLT I can see Vibrato Valtat going off at least 3rd favourite with not much threatening from lower down in the betting. He reminds me a bit of Silviniaco Conti who like Vibrato Valtat doesn't win his races by much, can be a little suspect when in the lead, is not particularly striking over fences which has led him to be underrated. Nicholls has been a genius with headgear this season and he may be saving cheek pieces for a big Cheltenham run which will sharpen him up heading up the hill. He hasn't won at Cheltenham before but he's gone close twice, first when he found nothing off the bridle when looking the winner and secondly when understandably he was produced late and left with too much to do. Since then he has gone from strength to strength showing more versatility and just looks like a really progressive type who could find more even without headgear. If he was the horse he is now two months ago he would have won both those races at Cheltenham nicely and I don't think the hill will pose problems any more. Vibrato Valtat - Win @ 20/1 Ladbrokes