scotty657 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Well after a few weeks of tough luck betting last month I decided to revamp my betting style and begin creating my own odds for races, in search of they much debated 'value' bets. I practiced without betting on a few races and my tissues were surprisingly accurate. I was creating the books with absolutely no idea of what the bookmakers priced up. Here's an example from a handicap at Wolverhampton last night: (I've lost the starting SP's on the exchanges, these from Sporting Life on-field SP's) My odds SP Lady Crossmar 7/4 7/4 Steelriver 4/1 2/1 Be Royale 6/1 11/2 Galatian 9/1 10/1 Hipz 15/2 11/1 Baltic Prince 14/1 20/1 Sakhalin Star 50/1 33/1 Two Pancakes 100/1 66/1 So I had a small bet on Hipz, finished nowhere. That's the problem, the ones I'm finding to be value bets aren't winning. And as you can see it's a fairly similar book, should I be trying to get it tighter? It's happening with the football as well, coming up with prices very similar to the bookies yet nothing winning that I'm backing. Should I be backing the favourites who I maybe rate at 11/8 and offer 8/5 or the outsider which is sitting at 6/1 even though I see them as a 9/2 shot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds Years ago it was proberley worth doing when bookies actually thought for themselves and priced up certain events accordingly, despite what other bookies were pricing up. Eg, it wasn't rare for hills for example to price up a rugby match, as say, Warrington +6 against, say, Wigan, whereas, Laddies would price it Warrington -6, giving a 12 point difference. Then they got wise to the arbers and now it is very rare to see more than a 2 point difference. Sorting your own tissue in match bets, based on your own thoughts and ratings is the way to go and then betting accordingly. When it comes to horse racing, it's pointless really, as the bookies won't be that much different with the first 5/6 in the betting. As an exaggerated example, if A derby winner was priced up at 1/100 to beat a class 6 winner from Southwell over 12f who was priced at 100/1, yet your tissue said 1/50 and 50/1, would you bet the Southwell winner at double your sp? At the same time, we've all missed or not bet 5/1 shots that we thought should have been bigger when they have won. Does that mean our perception of value was right or wrong? IMO, value only exists when the horse you've bet has won, irrespective of price. The choice you have if wether you take the price or not. Good luck with your approach though, would be interesting to find out how you get on in future. Ps, I know an on course bookie who has made profits for the last 20+ years by not reading the form book, but by laying the horses to lose x amount. Ie, the 6/4 to lose 2k, 2nd fav 1.5k and so on. When he has liabilities of 2k matched at 6/4 he will slash the odds to say 11/10, meaning no normal thinking punter will take that price and look elsewhere, leaving the bookie in the position to get all the other runners in the book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds I completely see what you're saying. As an exaggerated example, if A derby winner was priced up at 1/100 to beat a class 6 winner from Southwell over 12f who was priced at 100/1, yet your tissue said 1/50 and 50/1, would you bet the Southwell winner at double your sp? At the same time, we've all missed or not bet 5/1 shots that we thought should have been bigger when they have won. Does that mean our perception of value was right or wrong? IMO, value only exists when the horse you've bet has won, irrespective of price. The choice you have if wether you take the price or not. This is sort of what I was hinting at. A less exaggerated example were Granada last night v Barcelona who were available at 30/1. I thought they should should have been more around 18/1. I didn't back it as I just didn't see them getting a result. It was self-evaluated value though..Tricky one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds Surely the whole point of seeking out value prices is that if its priced larger than it should be you win over the long run (+ev) not that you expect them to win all the time Backing a 10/1 shot that should be 8/1 is a "profitable" bet even if it doesnt win, but if it shojld be 12/1 it isnt. Its basically about how much trust you have in your own prices, if you feel they are accurate you need to settle down and play the long game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds And that is the point of my match bets Scotty Dan, the 10/1 shot is only profitable if it wins I bet Muir Lodge at Haydock yesterday. Irrespective of the price, my system flagged this up. Went off at 28/1, I took 40s. Horse still got beat and I was still 40 quid down, despite beating the price. I bet Jacks Summat at Newmarket, was 7s in the morning, went off 7/2 and lost. I bet sp, got the market wrong but still lost another 40 quid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds And that is the point of my match bets Scotty Sorry but what do you mean by match bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds 2 teams, with 3 outcomes. Win, lose or draw. Draw obj ore often than not, the bigger price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds 2 teams' date=' with 3 outcomes. Win, lose or draw. Draw obj ore often than not, the bigger price[/quote'] D'oh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds And that is the point of my match bets Scotty Dan, the 10/1 shot is only profitable if it wins I bet Muir Lodge at Haydock yesterday. Irrespective of the price, my system flagged this up. Went off at 28/1, I took 40s. Horse still got beat and I was still 40 quid down, despite beating the price. I bet Jacks Summat at Newmarket, was 7s in the morning, went off 7/2 and lost. I bet sp, got the market wrong but still lost another 40 quid you miss the point, if a 10/1 shot should be 8/1, the value is there in that effectively it should win once in 8 making you a profit overall, bets that win at prices shorter than they should be are still bad bets in terms of value, you have to plave the losing bets to in effect receive the value even mugs win sometimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds Well after a few weeks of tough luck betting last month I decided to revamp my betting style and begin creating my own odds for races, in search of they much debated 'value' bets. My odds SP Lady Crossmar 7/4 7/4 Steelriver 4/1 2/1 Be Royale 6/1 11/2 Galatian 9/1 10/1 Hipz 15/2 11/1 Baltic Prince 14/1 20/1 Sakhalin Star 50/1 33/1 Two Pancakes 100/1 66/1 I would never have bet Hipz as it was not the best horse in the race (according to my ratings) I priced that race up myself yesterday and got Lady Crossmar as my top rated at my estimated price of 2/1(3.00) I was able to get 3.5 BV (17% est value) so it became a bet (due to nr's R4 10p) The way I do a race is a) Must be my highest rated in the race (I cant back a horse which I don't think is the best in the race regardless of price) b) The bookies price must be greater than my estimation by a min of 10% to a max of 50% (min/max range tested with over 10yrs data against my ratings) Only 1 race qualifies today the 3.55 @ Epsom Each horse has its own ratings which are normalised against each horse in the race with the max normalised rating being 100. from there I price each horse (R-odds) only the top rated horse is VR (value rated) against my best horse on normalised ratings. If the VR is between .1 and .5 then it is a bet no other horse is checked. Yaakoom is my only bet today (my odds 5.41 book 7 VR .29) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds you miss the point, if a 10/1 shot should be 8/1, the value is there in that effectively it should win once in 8 making you a profit overall, bets that win at prices shorter than they should be are still bad bets in terms of value, you have to plave the losing bets to in effect receive the value even mugs win sometimes The problem with that type of thinking which IMO is value backers downfall is that you are only backing that single event once not the 8 times you state you need for that particular bet to win to according to the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds value betting is just playing when the odds are greater than the horses real chance ....they wont always win but if your pricing is accurate .then you just need to place bets and sooner or later your ship must come in.....i do this all the time rate and price ......and you can go eight selections without a winner then a 12/1 goes in ..bang ...your back in business... its all down to accurate pricing .... if there are multiple value bets in one race then u have to start playing percentages....i.e horse a rated 100 on clock your price 7/2 horse b rated 90 on clock your price 8/1 each horse is lets say one point over your estimated odds .....but the bet you play is the 7/2 shot .....because its the percentage play ....one most likely to collect take the cambridgeshire as an example ...... velox had collateral formlines with bronze angel suggesting the fav could beat him but not by much ....had the fav priced up at 10/1 ....he was 10/1 ......bronze angel was about a length behind ...my price 14/1 ......shop around 22.0 available ...8 pts over on the second rated horse overall .. instant bet ....no brainer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bully3061 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds Need to give yourself a bigger margin for error when pricing. No expert this end as i use stats then piece form around that but Hipz you priced as 15/2 shot yet 11/1 was available. Whilst the price looks a big difference in % terms it's small 3.4 ish. Someone i no uses 10% diff. food for thought for you if my maths is right. Been a long day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJW270514 Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Re: Creating my own odds Interesting thread. Of course, value is a subjective measure and will only turn profit if your criteria are meaningful. In other words, we could all price a race using different criteria, and come up with a different tissue. Therefore 'value' will be subjective and potentially meaningless until proven over time. I notice there are references to bookmakers odds but not to the very obvious bookmaker strategy; even when they evaluate the respective probability of each horse winning, they still don't lay just the one horse they think will lose - they try to lay them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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