Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets

[harry_rag]

This system will involve bets on Rugby Union tryscorers, either fixed odds anytime bets or spread buys of player try minutes. The selection method involves comparing the best fixed odds and spread prices available for each player using a comparison chart I've created. Players will be considered for selection where one of the prices is judged to offer at least a 16% edge over the other one. For example, if a player is 4.0 to score a try and 12 to buy on the spreads there would be no bet as I equate 12 to 4.11 and the perceived edge is minimal. If the same player could be bought at 9, equated to odds of 5.3, it would be a potential bet as the spreads offer an edge of over 30%. From 16th March onward, different criteria apply to Super Rugby games. No spread bets will be considered and all fixed odds bets that offer any edge over the spreads will be considered, i.e. the 16% criteria will not apply. The final criteria will be my subjective opinion based on the qualifying players' tryscoring stats, e.g. a player who averages a try every other match would be attractive at 2/1 but one with 5 tries in 50 appearances probably wouldn't! I'll be using a 1,000 point starting bank and staking as follows; spread bets would be bought at 1 point per minute and the stake for fixed odds bets would be 1 x the spread price (so the total amount risked is the same whichever way I back any given player). These will be backed with real money. All fixed odds selections will be odds against and 29 will be the maximum buy price for spread bets. There will be a maximum of 6 selections in any one match. Selections will be posted at least 15 minutes before the scheduled start time. I will run the strategy for a minimum of 100 bets (subject to the bank not being exhausted first). As well as establishing whether the selections are profitable or not I'll also compare the staking approach to backing all the players fixed odds only, spreads only and with a 50/50 split. I hope that makes sense; it should do once I've posted a few selections!

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets New Zealand v South Africa: Bought B. Smith's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with Spreadex Bought Cruden's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Read to score a try, 11 points at 9/2 with Lads Bought Serfontein's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Coetzee to score a try, 6 points at 8/1 with Skybet Perceived edge of 17.9%, 41.1%, 24.2%, 25.1% and 17.2% respectively (in terms of price taken compared to best alternative fixed odds/spreads price). Have looked at players' tryscoring stats for their country, overall and last 10 games. All persuasive enough for me to back the players apart from Serfontein where I needed a nudge from his club stats to convince me.