JuMeSyn Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Estoril Praia x Moreirense BTTS @ 2.5 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake Big odds for big chances. I actually started to think if the match is fixed when I look at that 2.50, but I just can't refuse it! I have to stake it! Estoril Praia are a very attacking side that sometimes completely disrupts midfield and defense for the sake of scoring goals. They have big talent upfront, with the likes of striker Kleber and creative players Sebá and Kuca. However, Kuca is a big miss for Estoril as he will play for Cape Verde in the African Cup of Nations. Babanco (sub midfielder) and Balboa (sub attacker) are also on African Cup of Nations btw. But even without him, I think Estoril Praia have enough to score at least once. They also have a very strong and creative midfield and have crucial players for set pieces (Emidio Rafael and Toze). And stats don't lie as well: Estoril has always scored at home at least once. Even in Europa League matches against tough opposition such as Dinamo Moscow or PSV Eindhoven! Moreirense are a very well organized side, who prefers to sit deep and efficiently counter attack. While they look like your boring average Primeira Liga side, no they are not. They are a very good side to watch, a very intelligent team in-play and they usually know how to score at least once anywhere they play. Away from home, they just could not score against Académica (0-0) and FC Porto (3-0), but they scored, for example, against tough opposition (1-1 Sporting, 3-1 and 4-1 Benfica). They are also extremely good in set pieces. I do think we could be on for a serious mistake from the bookies. Or a mistake from me :) but I'm willing to stake it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Estoril Praia x Moreirense BTTS @ 2.5 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake Big odds for big chances. I actually started to think if the match is fixed when I look at that 2.50, but I just can't refuse it! I have to stake it! Estoril Praia are a very attacking side that sometimes completely disrupts midfield and defense for the sake of scoring goals. They have big talent upfront, with the likes of striker Kleber and creative players Sebá and Kuca. However, Kuca is a big miss for Estoril as he will play for Cape Verde in the African Cup of Nations. Babanco (sub midfielder) and Balboa (sub attacker) are also on African Cup of Nations btw. But even without him, I think Estoril Praia have enough to score at least once. They also have a very strong and creative midfield and have crucial players for set pieces (Emidio Rafael and Toze). And stats don't lie as well: Estoril has always scored at home at least once. Even in Europa League matches against tough opposition such as Dinamo Moscow or PSV Eindhoven! Moreirense are a very well organized side, who prefers to sit deep and efficiently counter attack. While they look like your boring average Primeira Liga side, no they are not. They are a very good side to watch, a very intelligent team in-play and they usually know how to score at least once anywhere they play. Away from home, they just could not score against Académica (0-0) and FC Porto (3-0), but they scored, for example, against tough opposition (1-1 Sporting, 3-1 and 4-1 Benfica). They are also extremely good in set pieces. I do think we could be on for a serious mistake from the bookies. Or a mistake from me :) but I'm willing to stake it! Just looking at the two teams' last five games, BTTS would have won in 4 out of 10, and lost 6 out of 10, so perhaps this explains the odds ... http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2015/01/09/portugal/portuguese-liga-/gd-estoril-praia/moreirense-fc/1758163/?ICID=HP_MS_32_01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 But if you look home and away form, 3 ouf ot 5 for Estoril and 5 out of 5 for Moreirense! But in the end, it is still just stats. I don't usually recall them as pure decision makers but as support. I also usually acknowledge home and away form and team playing style much more that home+away form and stats. I do think that 2.50 is just too much for it, big value. I would price it well below, maybe 2.00...I'm risking a 50% chance for me against a 40% for the bookies, so there is value for me! Also, an early could be good for corners. Both teams, especially Estoril (if Moreirense score first), fancy corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Best odds now 2.33 on Unibet. bet365 have cut their price to 2.20. That was a serious mistake there, I think.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 finally. 1-1 on 47'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padjo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Great call. well done JuMeSyn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Rio Ave x Maritimo Over 2.5 @ 2.38 (Coral) for a 0.55 stake Rio Ave + Over 2.5 @ 3.75 (bet365) for a 0.15 stake Magnificent odds. Overs/unders should be switched, and Under 2.5 should be 2.38, IMO. Both teams have attacking attitude and so-so defenses. However, both are missing crucial players. Rio Ave has almost no central defenders for this one, as Marcelo, André Villas Boas and Roderick are injured. The only one available is Prince Boateng, and even that one is on bad physical shape...Nelson Monte (U19) was called to play next to him. Main left-back (Tiago Pinto) is also missing. Their defensive processes are not the best as well so they could be on for some trouble. But upfront, they know how to score. They come from 2 0-0s at home for the championship, but that won't happen again. Maritimo is a much different team than Belenenses and Gil Vicente, which know how to sit back and defend, just like they did against Rio Ave. And when Gil Vicente could not sit back and defend, they were destroyed by Rio Ave (5-2 last Wednesday, Cup QF) Maritimo will not have defensive midfielder and most important player of the team Danilo Pereira available. He's out for suspension, and gives a lot of stability in the back. Main GK is also out due to injury and starter Dyego Sousa cannot play as well. Main central defender Gege is out on the African Cup of Nations. Defensive processes are the worst ever, and Maritimo actually has the 2nd worst away defensive record of the league (only surpassed by Vitória Setubal). They lack consistency and quality at the back. But they are very strong upfront if players are willing to. Maazou is a bit moody but unstoppable on his days. Midfield is also strong going forward with Alex Soares and Fransergio. In conclusion, two offensive and agressive teams going forward with very important absences in the back, especially, and that should be for some defensive mistakes and goal opportunities. Odds look good, and I always give a small advantage to Rio Ave. They are very strong at home and Maritimo just can't cope away from home (3 points in 19 possible points). They could only win against Gil Vicente, last placed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Arouca @ 2.15 (BetVictor) for a 0.5 stake Arouca 1-0 @ 6.75 (Unibet) for a 0.1 stake Arouca and Vitória Setubal will play against each other. They are two of the worst teams of the league and will fight for avoiding relegation unless some seriously good players show up for them in the transfer market. This is going to be a very nervy match, I'm afraid. It actually has the potencial to be one of the worst matches of the matchday, but Arouca has the edge mainly because they play at home and also because they just have to win it to escape from the relegation zone. And also, becuase rumours are going through that Pedro Emanuel could leave if Arouca loses. Arouca has some important absences such as Bruno Amaro (starter midfielder) and Artur (main creative player) is doubtful, but playing at home and against Vitória Setubal, which is a team that does not know how to win away. This is more because of what Vitoria Setubal does away from home and not because of what Arouca can do. Arouca are bad, but Vitoria Setubal on away form is just awful. Worst attack, worst defense, less points...and even though they won last match that means nothing. Arouca has a good chance and 2.15 seems a bit value to me. I expect a 1-0 here as well, so CS could also be a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Rio Ave -0.70 Arouca +1.25 as a fun fact, it is the fourth time is a row that I bet on a Rio Ave match and it ends 0-0. Never bet on them again. Next week they will lose 4-0 or something :D Murphy's Law.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.9 (Sportingbet) for a 0.6 stake Massive odds, get in while you can, as there is big value here. Match is only Sunday 20:15 GMT. Sporting Lisbon is clearly on their best moment of the season after a bit of a crisis during crisis December. The manager was almost out of the club but president held him in behalf of the fans, which are clearly on the manager side here. And the manager managed to change some players and to hold the players against external criticisms against the manager and players, and the squad came out stronger and playing even better. For Sunday, Sporting has Mauricio and Adrien suspended, two starters. But Mauricio will not be missed as Tobias Figueiredo is better than him, while Adrien is important, but as much as Nani, Carrillo or William Carvalho. André Martins also out due to injury. Big player Carrillo is in BIG form and will surely cause havoc in his wing. Nani also coming back from injury, always a threat. Montero and Tanaka are two great centre-forwards. Jefferson is one of the best left-backs in the world in terms of crossing...all in all, Sporting are amazing in attack, and they are without conceding a goal for 6 matches! And on a 7-win streak as well. The in-form team of the league. But the main reason as why I think this bet is value comes from their opponent Rio Ave: theiy are without are without their 4 centre-backs available. Marcelo, Prince, André Villas Boas and Roderick are all injured and out of the match. Pedro Martins (Rio Ave manager) had to call Nelson Monte from the U19 squad and midfielder Tarantini will be adapted to central defender. Also, main left-back is injured. Rio Ave are a very good team offensively but they are not as good in defense, and without all the CBs and without the main LB, they will surely have a lot of trouble against an in-form side. Sporting chances of scoring 3 or more with the like of Nani, Carrillo and Montero upfront against a weak Rio Ave defensive line are big, and I would not rate them even near 2.5, for example. Big value to be taken here, and I expect Sporting to win and to accomplish this bet as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simeon Borisof Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Is it going to be the 5th dull 0:0 in a row?:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 I surely hope not... always a risk taken, but in this case, it is a risk worth taking. plus, curses are meant to be broken!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Moreirense FC v FC Arouca Moreirense FC: Alex (15/0 f), Filipe Melo (15/0 m), Rojas (3/0 f) FC Arouca: Bruno Amaro (10/0 m), Nildo (10/1 m), David Simão (16/1 m), Tomás Dabó (2/0 d) Paços de Ferreira v Nacional Madeira Paços de Ferreira: Hurtado (10/2 m) Nacional Madeira: Rony (0/0 d), Christian (1/0 m), Kevin (0/0 g), Fofana (13/0 d) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurf Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.9 (Sportingbet) for a 0.6 stake Massive odds, get in while you can, as there is big value here. Match is only Sunday 20:15 GMT. Sporting Lisbon is clearly on their best moment of the season after a bit of a crisis during crisis December. The manager was almost out of the club but president held him in behalf of the fans, which are clearly on the manager side here. And the manager managed to change some players and to hold the players against external criticisms against the manager and players, and the squad came out stronger and playing even better. For Sunday, Sporting has Mauricio and Adrien suspended, two starters. But Mauricio will not be missed as Tobias Figueiredo is better than him, while Adrien is important, but as much as Nani, Carrillo or William Carvalho. André Martins also out due to injury. Big player Carrillo is in BIG form and will surely cause havoc in his wing. Nani also coming back from injury, always a threat. Montero and Tanaka are two great centre-forwards. Jefferson is one of the best left-backs in the world in terms of crossing...all in all, Sporting are amazing in attack, and they are without conceding a goal for 6 matches! And on a 7-win streak as well. The in-form team of the league. But the main reason as why I think this bet is value comes from their opponent Rio Ave: theiy are without are without their 4 centre-backs available. Marcelo, Prince, André Villas Boas and Roderick are all injured and out of the match. Pedro Martins (Rio Ave manager) had to call Nelson Monte from the U19 squad and midfielder Tarantini will be adapted to central defender. Also, main left-back is injured. Rio Ave are a very good team offensively but they are not as good in defense, and without all the CBs and without the main LB, they will surely have a lot of trouble against an in-form side. Sporting chances of scoring 3 or more with the like of Nani, Carrillo and Montero upfront against a weak Rio Ave defensive line are big, and I would not rate them even near 2.5, for example. Big value to be taken here, and I expect Sporting to win and to accomplish this bet as well. Yet another great pick. Well done JuMeSyn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 hope some of you took it. Also had another bet for today (it was BBTS in Boavista - Estoril) but didn't grab the time. Next week keep in mind that Sporting is going to face an horror team (Académica). That could be another Team Goals chance. More on that later I hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting Lisboa v Académica Coimbra Sporting Lisboa: Slimani (12/7 f, top scorer) Académica Coimbra: Aderlan (8/1 d), Schumacher (15/1 f), Ivanildo (11/1 f), Oualembo (5/0 m), Salli (9/0 f) Vitória Setúbal v Rio Ave Vitória Setúbal: Manu (11/0 m), Hélder Cabral (9/0 d), Yann (2/0 m) Rio Ave: Roderick (3/0 d), Marcelo (11/1 d), Vilas Boas (7/0 m), Tiago Pinto (14/0 d), Nuno Lopes (7/0 d), Wakaso (14/0 m) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItalianPRO Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 maritimo vs. Porto Porto can't lose vs maritimo. http://betoolio.com/de/soccer/Odds/match/CSMaritimovsFCPorto2015012519 = they won the last 4 games, all with handicap results. there can only be one winner: WIN Porto, Q1.38 (pinnacle), 8/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 maritimo vs. Porto Porto can't lose vs maritimo. http://betoolio.com/de/soccer/Odds/match/CSMaritimovsFCPorto2015012519 = they won the last 4 games, all with handicap results. there can only be one winner: WIN Porto, Q1.38 (pinnacle), 8/10 But Porto lost, and now Benfica have a chance to get away on the nine-points difference. The Eagles have eight consecutive wins in Pacos and have seven straight wins without a conceded goal in all competitions. The truth is that they will be without key midfielder Gaitan, but the hosts are without victory in the last five games and will be without the 2nd best scorer Urreta due to suspension as well as regular defender Rafael for this match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisandri Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Portugal » Liga ZON Sagres » 7-9 Feb [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 7 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Moreirense FC v FC Porto (20:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]16[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.32[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 8 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Futebol Clube de Arouca v Nacional da Madeira (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.78[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.87[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.06 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]MarÃtimo v Gil Vicente (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.59[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.32 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Paços de Ferreira v Penafiel (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitoria de Guimaraes v Belenenses (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitória de Setúbal v Académica de Coimbra (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.18[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Estoril-Praia v Sporting de Braga (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.72[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.87 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting CP v Benfica (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 9 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Boavista FC v Rio Ave (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.42[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting - Benfica Sporting Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.60 (Unibet) for a 0.55 stake Always dangerous placing my bets on Sporting Portugal and it is my club and usually we have to try and be more neutral with our clubs and/or favourite clubs. However, I'm really willing to stake this one as I am quite confident for tomorrow. Odds opened up Wednesday with Benfica as a marginal favourite in every bookie. However, things are turned around currently, and Sporting is small favourite. Actually this is the first time in many years that Sporting plays against Benfica and is a favourite to win the match, and due to many reasons. First reason is Benfica important absences. Besides long term injury of Ruben Amorim (crucial midfielder), Julio Cesar (main GK) is also out, and Artur will play instead of him. Artur is not a very solid GK, and usually cannot cope in big pressure moments, which could be the case. Also, Nicolas Gaitan, main attacking dynamo of SL Benfica is doubtful for the match. Rumours indicate that he will not be in the starting line-up and could only play 30 minutes or so. He will be a big absence as Benfica depends a bit on him to create chances, even though they also have good players to his duty of creating chances as well (such as Jonas and Salvio). Benfica also seems to have a weakened midfield since the departure of Enzo and while Ruben Amorim is still injured. Although Samaris is getting better, Talisca has no tactical knowledge, while Pizzi and Cristante have talent but still need some time to grow. Second of all, Sporting has played more than 33 matches so far this season. They only did not get to score in two matches: Chelsea at home (0-1) and Vitoria Guimarães away (0-3). Other than that, Sporting have always scored at least once, even in Estádio da Luz against Benfica in third matchday. They have serious talent upfront, Nani and Carrillo and big team players, dynamic wingers and very strong one-on-one, João Mário is a very good midfielder than knows how to do some killer passes and has good long range, Slimani is a solid finisher in the air and Montero is an artist, very mobile and intelligent player, technically gifted that can decide one match on his own, if needed (also a bit inconsistent in performance though). Jefferson also the best left-back of the championship, his crossing abilities are among the best in Europe. That's why they almost always score: individually gifted players and work well as a team too. Team is well-built by talented manager Marco Silva. On the other hand, Benfica also usually know how to score in the Jorge Jesus era, so I would say they could score as well, and I do think they will actually score, but I do feel that may not happen and I can't see value on current BTTS best odds. And finally, third reason, the differences in big pressure matches of both teams. Sporting has always surpassed expectations so far in big matches. Even though they have problems against teams that shut up shop, especially in Estádio de Alvalade (Sporting CP home stadium), against teams that try to win it and are as good or stronger than Sporting, Sporting usually plays above the expected and never disappointed so far, this season. Played some terrific matches in Champions League (especially both matches against Schalke and the match at Stamford Bridge) and was quite unlucky not to go through, managed to beat FC Porto in Taça de Portugal away against all odds (3-1), managed to draw against Benfica away (1-1) and drew against FC Porto at home (1-1) in a match that if Sporting was finishing better, could have been 3-0 by the first half, managed to beat SC Braga away (1-0), a home turf that is usually very hard to play in and where Benfica lost (1-2). And on the other hand, Benfica has trouble in winning big pressure matches. Failed to cope in the Champions League (out it in the group phase) and only won at home against Monaco (1-0), and did not deserve too and won against FC Porto away (2-0) and a very lucky match, where FC Porto did not deserve to lose as they missed too many chances, although Benfica has merit in that performance as well. But they drew against Sporting in the third matchday (1-1), lost twice against SC Braga away for the championship (1-2) and at home for Taça de Portugal (1-2), lost twice against Zenit for the CL, lost and drew (1-3 away and 0-0 home) against Bayer Leverkusen and drew away against Monaco (0-0). They also lost 2 weeks ago against Paços de Ferreira in a match that if they won, they would build a 9 point advantage over FC Porto after FC Porto lost against Maritimo one day before...and they actually lost 0-1. They have serious trouble in a big pressure moments. And although they are first placed and even a loss would not disrupt their good chances of winning the championship, it would build additional pressure in maintaining the first place and building new momentum. As much as I think that Sporting has a good chance of winning this match, and I actually reckon there is value on best odds 2.6 currently (would price it 2.4 myself), and even though Benfica has 1 important absence and another important player that could not play and usually fail to cope against the pressure, they are still in first place on the championship, are very experienced and have a good manager and might just turn it on their favour. Also, Sporting Portugal defensive line, although on good form, lacks experience and leaves a bit of space behind for quick counters due to lack of speed of the central defenders. If Benfica can explore than weakness well, they could snatch something out of this, so a draw is definitely likely as well. But what I do like are Sporting goals. Their attacking unit will be up for it as they always were in big matches, and Nani and Carrillo could be a handful of problems for Maxi Pereira and especially for Eliseu. They have always scored at home unless against Chelsea FC, and Chelsea FC are in a galaxy of their own, and I expect that to happen tomorrow against Benfica that has a very weakened midfield since the departure of Enzo a second choice GK that usually fails in big pressure moments. I do feel certainty that Sporting will score at least once. Should they score twice? Hard to say, sometimes they also have some finishing issues in a match or another, but never in big matches and there is definitely value in current 2.6 best odds, and I would price them 2.18 myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Setúbal @ 2.1 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake Wrong odds from bookies here. Setúbal should be priced below evens according to their current form with new manager Bruno Ribeiro and against an Académica with a weak manager, with some important absences upfront (Ivanildo, Salli and Magique) and that does not know what a win is for the Championship since the start of October 2014. New manager Bruno Ribeiro took over the team 3 weeks ago and still hasn't lost. 3 wins and 2 draws in official competitions, and two of those wins were enough for Vitoria de Setubal get qualified for the League Cup semi-finals. With Bruno Ribeiro, the players have their confidence back and the important signing of Suk from Nacional da Madeira gave them the firepower they were lacking upfront. Team now embraces a 4-3-3 attacking formation with Suk upfront and well supported by offensive dynamos Andre Horta and Pelkas, which are in good form as well. On the other hand, Académica are just bad, really bad. Their manager is one of the weakest in Primeira Liga, their squad quality and depth is well below needed to survive in Primeira Liga, and they have not won for more than 3 months in Primeira Liga. How Paulo Sergio was not sacked is a mystery to me, as the team was expected to do a mid-table finish and currently sits in 16º place with 13 points, tied with 17º place team Penafiel, which is the first team in the relegation zone. In conclusion, a red hot form team that is playing at home against one of weakest sides of the Primeira Liga. I think Académica will do more of the same when they play away: shut up shop and play for the draw. But I expect Vitória de Setúbal to grab the win, because they are so much better individually, as a team and have a better manager. And that usually is enough to win. And I can get that win at odds above evens...I can't refuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Paços de Ferreira v FC Penafiel Paços de Ferreira: Romeu (7/0 m), Hélder Lopes (18/1 m), Rafael Amorim (13/1 d), Ricardo Ferreira (9/0 d), Jailson (17/0 d) FC Penafiel: Vitor Bruno (14/0 f), Rabiola (17/0 f), Michel (0/0 f), Bura (7/0 d), Ezequiel Calvente (1/0 m), Rui Miguel (8/0 f), Haghighi (12/0 g) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 -1.25. Running against the profits in the start of the February, hopefully I can bounce back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Nacional Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.62 (Coral) for a 0.70 stake Over 3.5 @ 4.50 (BF Sportsbook) for a 0.15 stake Excellent odds for this one. Both teams are tied with 25 points in the middle of the standings, but on different forms atm. Nacional are an in-form team of the Primeira Liga. 5 consecutives matches without losing, 4 wins and 1 draw. The draw was the last match (3-3 Arouca away). Nacional are really playing well and scoring tons of goals since new players arrived in the transfer window, especially Tiago Rodrigues and Christian, two good midfielders. Upfront, Lucas João is now the main striker after 1 year on the bench, and he is on terrific form. Great youngster, expect big things from him. Also upfront Wagner has arrived, he is a very fast winger and could do damage to slow defenders. However, the starter should creative Marco Matias and in-form Rondon (hat-trick against Arouca). Nacional like to play on a counter-attacking approach, and they are excellent in doing it. First half of the season not so great due to the lack of quality players in midfield and Lucas João was not playing, but now, things are different. Counter-attacks are doing massive damage, and that happened against Arouca (2 goals were fast counters). Gottardi is injured for tomorrow. The other GK Rui Silva will play, and he is not one of the best IMO. Lacks handling and aerial ability. Moreover, Nacional is not the best team when it comes to individualities in the back, so they usually concede as well even though they have immense goalscoring ability at the moment. Estoril is doing a regular season. They should fight for the middle of the table until the end. They have good players upfront and they also know how to use them. However, they clearly lack organization behind, even though they have good centre-back such as Ruben Fernandes and Yohan. They usually concede too much goals, especially away. They have always conceded away, except on one match (0-0 Maritimo). Although they also know how to score, Kleber (main striker) is off and Kuca left in the transfer window, so they are much weaker upfront than they were in the first half of the season. Leo Bonatini is a good striker, but still not adapted to a new championship, as he arrived in the transfer window. They also have another absentees, but they are all bench players and the main starters will play. Nacional play at home, are in big form, players upfront are scoring, and I have to consider them as favourites for today. Good attack versus bad defense is a synonym of goals. Moreover, Estoril have a lot of trouble while in attack-defense transition, which is Nacional strong point. I can see Nacional scoring twice or even three times, but I'm going with Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.45 as the main bet. Even those odds are terrific! Would price them 2.00 to be honest, but the Overs are actually big as well. They should be much lower based on the attacking quality and lack of defensive ability of both teams. So small punt on Over 3.5 as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 wrong pick once again. -0.85, tight match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 20 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Paços de Ferreira v Vitoria de Guimaraes (20:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.76[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.98[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 21 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting de Braga v Nacional da Madeira (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.64[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitória de Setúbal v Penafiel (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.06[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Moreirense FC v Benfica (19:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 22 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Futebol Clube de Arouca v Rio Ave (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]MarÃtimo v Belenenses (16:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Estoril-Praia v Académica de Coimbra (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting CP v Gil Vicente (18:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 23 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Boavista FC v FC Porto (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.27[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Sporting Braga v Nacional Madeira Sporting Braga: Pardo (16/4 f), Marcelo Goiano (3/0 d), Boly (0/0 d) Nacional Madeira: Christian (1/0 m), Gottardi (13/0 first goalkeeper), Saleh Gomaa (15/1 m), Miguel Rodrigues (15/0 d) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Moreirense is mid table club with poor form and with a lot absences tonight: two regular midfielders (Melo, Gomes) are sold, three regular defenders (Paulinho, Marcelo Oliveira, André Marques) are out, as well as key striker Cardozo. On the other side, Benfica won all three mutual matches against this opponent this season (2:0, 4:1, 3:1) and midfielder Samaris is only a new missing player for them (Gaitán, Júlio César, Fejsa). They have the imperative to win in order to maintain the four pionts advantage over Porto. Benfica (-1,5) @2.31 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Moreirense is mid table club with poor form and with a lot absences tonight: two regular midfielders (Melo, Gomes) are sold, three regular defenders (Paulinho, Marcelo Oliveira, André Marques) are out, as well as key striker Cardozo. On the other side, Benfica won all three mutual matches against this opponent this season (2:0, 4:1, 3:1) and midfielder Samaris is only a new missing player for them (Gaitán, Júlio César, Fejsa). They have the imperative to win in order to maintain the four pionts advantage over Porto. Benfica (-1,5) @2.31 Pinnacle 1:3 :cigar:cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Good win McNasara! Sporting x Gil Vicente BTTS @ 2.62 (Coral) for a 0.55 stake Massive odds atm, and I would price it 2.10/2.15. Sporting are going through one of the worst moments of the season. After the unlucky 1-1 draw against Benfica, Sporting were never the same. They played badly against Belenenses and didn't manage to overcome Wolfsburg away and to grab a good result to win it at home, even though it is still possible (0-2 loss). Team seems to be lacking emotionally and players are not making good decision at all. Nani and Carrillo are on bad form as well, and they are the most important players besides William and João Mário (which are actually playing well, but not enough). Main striker Slimani still injured and his physical presence and goalscoring instinct is very important for the team. Gil Vicente will show up without any additional pressure after their massive recovery in the standings table. They were last placed 6 matchday before, now they are 17 points and clear of the red zone for now. Their are not expected to win tomorrow and that is why they will play well. They are still not ok in the back, even though their 2 new CBs they got during the transfer windows really stabilized the defensive line, their manager isn't the best one, but offensively they have been scoring, and have scored at least once 5 times in the last 6 matches. Forward Simy is on fire as well, and Ruben Ribeiro was a great loan during the transfer windows as well. Sporting might also be a bit centered towards the thursday match against Wolfsburg at home, when they will face Wolfsburg and try to perform a "miracle" in doing a "remontada" against a very strong side. But it is possible, and players might be not so motivated for this one. Moreover, they should be weakened physically after the last thursday match. And emotionally, the team is still on a down note since that last minute goal from Benfica... I do think Gil Vicente will have the chances to score. Sporting will definitely score as well even if they are not playing well as Gil Vicente isn't the best team when it comes to defending. BTTS at 2.62 is terrific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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