1 X 2 target 1000 €

[BigBoy777]

Hello people, i wasnt active for long time (i had big personal problems) but however i am back now, and i want to introduce you one system maybe you?ve already heard of maybe not. Now this system is based on betting on all three outcomes 1 X 2, and we will run series until we finish with profit of 10 euro. I already make some testings to this system and it works pretty well if you not greedy. So quick explanation about the system we will bet on three outcomes HW Draw AW, the odds for draw arent important, what is important is odds for home win and away win, they must be close to eachother as much as possible. Example: TEAM A VS. TEAM B: HOME WIN (2.60) DRAW (3.25) AWAY WIN (2.65) We are looking for a profit 10 euro on all three outcomes so the first bet should look something like this: TEAM A 6.25 € to win 16.25 (+10.00 €) DRAW 4.45 € to win 15.00 (+10.00 €) TEAM B 6.07 € to win 16.07 (+10.00 €) Now lets say we have away win, team B wins so we have made +10.00 € profit but we lost bets on TEAM A and DRAW. TEAM A -6.25 € DRAW -5.00 € TEAM B +10.00 € ---------------- TOTAL WIN 10.00 € TOTAL LOSS 10.70 € --------------------- -0.70 € For bet number two we have to add losses to 10 euro and winning bet is starting with first cycle so: TEAM A (2.75) (6.25 € + 10.00 €) 16.25 / 1.75 = 9.29 euro DRAW (3.25) (4.45 € + 10.00 €) 14.45 / 2.00 = 6.42 euro TEAM B (2.70) 10.00 / 1.70 = 5.88 euro Now lets say we have a draw so it should look something like this: TEAM A (6.25 + 9.29 = 15.54 €) - 15.54 € DRAW (6.42 X 3.25 = 20.87 €) TEAM B -5.88 € -------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL LOSS -0.55 € -------------------------------------------------------------- NAME OF TEAM 1 x 2 RESULT [TABLE=width: 704]

[TR] [TD=colspan: 4]MELBOURNE VICTORY - BRISBANE ROAR[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]3.50[/TD] [TD]2.67[/TD] [TD] 1[/TD] [TD]-7.85 €[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]PROFIT: -0.00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2.85 €[/TD] [TD]2.00 €[/TD] [TD]3.00 €[/TD] [TD] 7.85 €[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]NEW BANK:500,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 4]WIDZEW LODZ - CRACOVIA KRAKOW[/TD] [TD]2.71[/TD] [TD]3.35[/TD] [TD]2.76[/TD] [TD] 2[/TD] [TD]-10.45€[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]PROFIT: +2.15 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2.92 €[/TD] [TD]2.98 €[/TD] [TD]4.55 €[/TD] [TD] 12.60€[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]NEW BANK:502.15€[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 4]NANTES - LILLE[/TD] [TD]2.80[/TD] [TD]3.13[/TD] [TD]2.87[/TD] [TD] 2[/TD] [TD]-11.81€[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]PROFIT: -4.11€[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4.43 €[/TD] [TD]4.70 €[/TD] [TD]2.68 €[/TD] [TD] 7.70€[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]NEW BANK:498.04€[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 4]BARNSLEY - SHEFFIELD WED.[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]3.40[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD] X[/TD] [TD]16.03€[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]PROFIT: + 4.78 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7.05 €[/TD] [TD]6.12 €[/TD] [TD]2.86 €[/TD] [TD]20.80€[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2]NEW BANK:502.8€[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] THIS IS EXAMPLE FOR 5€ STARTING BET FROM REAL TIME MATCHES I PLAYED. NOW WHEN I FIND FIRST MATCH I WILL POST A BET.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € 31.3.2014 16:30 RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE TEREK GROZNY - SAMARA HOME WIN 2.75 DRAW 3.00 AWAY WIN 2.75 10/1.75 = 5.71 € 10/2 = 5.00 € 10/1.75 = 5.71 €

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I FORGOT TO MENTION THAT WE START WITH 1000 € BUDGET, THATS ALL FOR NOW. For all others who follow, if you have enough money you can spread money to different bookies so you get best possible odds. These odds were from bet365.com

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Sorry, but your staking system above makes no sense whatsoever! You have basically accepted a loss whatever the score using that staking system above. This is a screenshot of the stakes and odds (although not the same match - but that is irrelevant), what matters is - at those odds and stakes it is impossible to make a profit. I could not use odds of 2.75 as Betfair only allows 0.02 increments at that level.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € It was only example, and yes first bet is making a loss, look examples above four matches i gave. After 10 matches you can see progress. First match was postponed so we will take another but no odds for today, the match is played tomorrow at 11:15 am, 10:15 (UK time) 1.4.2014 PHILLIPINES LEAGUE 11:15 (10:15 UK Time) PACHANGA - GREEN ARCHERS HOME WIN 2.40 10.00 / 1.40 = 7.14 € DRAW 3.60 10.00 / 2.60 = 3.84 € AWAY WIN 2.40 10.00 / 1.40 = 7.14 € TOTAL STAKE: 18.12 € BTW, does anybody know how i can compose excel file here so i can show my stats in excel file because there will be many matches and it would be lot of writing and work to make clear statistics. Thanks.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € @mgreenough These are stats from my start but there is many stats i will show you few matches to give you picture what i think. http://shrani.si/t/1y/Lg/39mxG2xo/untitled.jpg http://shrani.si/t/2x/11o/4elaXjFg/untitled2.jpg I hope you understand now what i mean, it isnt about one match it is about series of matches.

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Your still making a loss on the second match above: The market over-round on that is 108% so it is impossible to create an arbitrage on that market with those odds.

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 €

@mgreenough These are stats from my start but there is many stats i will show you few matches to give you picture what i think. http://shrani.si/t/1y/Lg/39mxG2xo/untitled.jpg http://shrani.si/t/2x/11o/4elaXjFg/untitled2.jpg I hope you understand now what i mean, it isnt about one match it is about series of matches.

Don't get me wrong, I am not knocking your system as I do something similar whilst in play to dutch the whole market. What I am trying to convey is that some of the odds you have chosen and the stakes means that it is impossible to make a profit. Therefore you are guaranteed a loss which makes you use larger stakes the next game when you would not have needed to.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I think you dont understand the concept of this system, if you look pictures i ve attached you would see that it is not a loss. It is not one match, but it is series of matches, and i select matches carefully i dont select matches randomly.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € It worked well so far for me, if you pick matches carefully you can make profit. It is not about arbitrage.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € It depends on everybody how will take this system, you can continue series when make profit or stop and begin new series, at my case i didnt stop and i continued to play.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € And as you say i dont see a loss, i see 97 euro profit.

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I was not saying your system is making a loss - I was saying the following bet you have done is making a loss: 1.4.2014 PHILLIPINES LEAGUE 11:15 (10:15 UK Time) PACHANGA - GREEN ARCHERS HOME WIN 2.40 10.00 / 1.40 = 7.14 € DRAW 3.60 10.00 / 2.60 = 3.84 € AWAY WIN 2.40 10.00 / 1.40 = 7.14 € TOTAL STAKE: 18.12 € Please explain where the profit will be in the above odds/stakes

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I never wrote in thread that first match will make profit, first match of the series will always make small loss or no profit no loss,it all depend on odds in this case odds were 2.40 3.60 2.40 and i picked for start of series because it is played early so i can catch 2 or 3 matches later. The worst case scenario for first match of series is draw but it is not so critical because it is not possible i will pick matches that will end in draw 4 or 5 times in a row.

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Ok, so let me ask you this. Why would you bet on a match if you knew it was not going to make a profit? That sentence above makes no sense whatsoever. Why not skip that match and bet on the one that will show a profit using the revised figures rather than risking a small loss or not. The figures above show that you are just throwing your money away on that one match. I will help you out: HOME WIN 2.40 10.00 / 1.40 = 7.14 €

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Yes i lose in worst case 4.03 or 0.99 but let see other match odds 2.63 3.30 2.60 in case first match has for example away win. Second bet is: 17.14 / 1.63 = 10.51 € 13.84 / 2.60 = 5.32 € 17.14 / 1.60 = 10.71 € Home team wins 10.51 X 2.63 = 27.63 -5.32 € -17.85 Now lets see: Name of team 1 X 2 RESULT PROFIT BANK (1000) Bet # 1 2.40 3.60 2.40 2 7.14 € 3.84€ 7.14€ 18.12€ 17.14€ -0.99€ NEW BANK: 999.01€ Bet #2 2.63 3.30 2.60 1 10.51€ 5.32€ 6.25€ 22.08€ 27.64€ +5.56€ NEW BANK: 1004.57€ YES IT IS MINUS ON THE FIRST MATCH I TOLD YOU 10 TIMES I NEVER SAY THAT IS NOT MINUS BUT I WANT TO TELL YOU ALL THE TIME THAT IT ISNT ABOUT ONE MATCH BUT SERIES OF MATCHES, I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND ME NOW OR YOU MAKING JOKES FROM ME.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € And just to answer your question: Why would you bet on a match if you knew it was not going to make a profit? That sentence above makes no sense whatsoever. Why not skip that match and bet on the one that will show a profit using the revised figures rather than risking a small loss or not. Because i dont care for first match, it is start of series, other matches that follows are important, first match is NOT important! And it is not possible to make profit on first match, but if i hit second match needed result as you can see i have profit.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Maybe it does not make sense to you for make first bet a loss, but i have chance to aim 1 X 2 and i am sure i will hit the needed result for make profit, and the difference is you never lose your all stakes you always get something back no matter what result is, that is what i like and why i like to play this system.

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Believe it or not I am actually trying to help you by pointing out a flaw in your system. If none of the Draw/Home/Away makes any profit then avoid those games - do not bet on them. Just bet on the games where there is a chance of profit and the system will make more money. If your system relies on small profits, then if you select some matches which do not make any money - rather than losing it, then you are giving the profit way that you have earn't on the previous bets. You can either take my advice on board or not - either way good luck.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Thank you, let me try and after we will see if it is worth of trying. Believe it is not small profits, for example if i miss three or four times home win and i make correct prediction profits are good.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Everybody has its own opinion, for me it is not make sense play parlays and odds 1.01 but i believe both of them are profitable if you are not greedy and make proper selection, but i dont like play small odds and play all my bank on one match.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Pachanga-Green Archers result 0-0 -4.09 € New Bank: 995.91 € Next bet 13:30 (12:30 UK time) Phillipines League Meralco Sparks - Kaya 2.10 3.40 2.90 Home win (2.40) 15.58 € to win 32.72 € Draw (3.40) 4.16 € to win 14.15 € Away win (2.90) 9.02 € to win 26.68 €

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I made mistake with odds 2.40 but i dont want edit post, the calculations are made for 2.10 odds.

[aldric]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I'm very confused by this and agree that I don't understand why you would start a series knowing you will always lose money on the first bet? If it is to chose the next bet then why don't you just write home, draw and away on a bit of paper and pick one out of a hat to start the series. Good luck with what you are doing and maybe it will make sense the further you go.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € I missed one game before for Asian Champions league, but i didnt want to edit post so i left the way it is. I dont want random choose on paper because odds for first bet must be close or same for home and away win. It is important for further stakes. Many are confused because of first bet, but as i said first bet close odds for home and away win are important result is not important. The other thing is i played this system on three different bookies, Bet365.com, Pinnacle and 10bet, here i pick only odds from bet365.com so it might be a bit harder because of odds but if i pick 3 different bookies it would be too much writing for every bookie and i dont have that much time.

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Are the odds that you have taken with the other bookies the same as what you have written above - 2.1 (Home), 3.4 (Draw), 2.9 (Away)? If so then that is fine, but if the odd's you have taken are different - then these should be documented. You don't need to do much more typing other than putting what bookie took the bet in brackets after the bet line e.g. Home win (2.40) 15.58 € to win 32.72 € (Bet365) Draw (3.40) 4.16 € to win 14.15 € (Pinnacle) Away win (2.90) 9.02 € to win 26.68 € (10bet) It just makes it a little clearer as to what bets you are doing and odds taken. If you want people to follow you (and some may even attempt it themselves using your selections) then you should at least put this information down as a minimum.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € @mgreenough I wrote under my selections that real odds are 2.10 and i made mistake. In beginning of thread i wrote also that all odds are from bet365.com. And all odds will be used from bet365.com because it will be easier to follow for everybody on one bookie than on three different.

[BigBoy777]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Meralco Sparks - Kaya final score 1-3 win Kaya second bet total loss -2.08 € New Bank 993.83 € Asian Champions League AFC 18:20 (17:20 UK time) Al Ahli - Sepahan Home win (2.25) 26.17 € to win 58.89 € (10+7.14+15.58 = 32.72 € / 1.25 = 26.17 €) Draw (3.40) 5.90 € to win 20.06 € (10+4.16 = 14.16 € / 2.40 = 5.90 €) Away win (3.10) 4.77 € to win 14.77 € (10 / 2.10 = 4.77 €) I hope now is clear how is system works and all know how to bet if follow. The 10 € profit we are trying achieve is irrelevant you can try 1 € profit and with small stakes. For 1€ profit i recommend 100,00 euro bank or 1% of total bank.

[froment]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € Well, I have to say that at first I echoed Aldric's and mgreenough's opinion, that somewhere there must be a flaw to this system, but after simulation, it seems it can return profit after several legs... How, I don't know, I still can't get my head around this math. Anyway, here is an Excel file that BigBoy asked for, if I understood staking properly: when an outcome produces loss, next targeted profit increases for that loss; when an outcome produces profit, next targeted profit remains the same? :unsure Excel 2007, 15 kB, right click and "Save as": www.betgps.com/files/BigBoy777.xlsx Anyway, their recommendation that you should not place a bet on the first match is perfectly understandable; why not just recording the odds and calculating the stakes for the next bet, instead of wasting the money on a match that cannot yield any profit? Or why not just imagine the odds of a hypothetic match, and use them as first one? It's weird to say you are not interested in profit from first match; you are interested in overall profit, and first match affects that profit, right? The same applies for any subsequent match which cannot yield profit on any of three outcomes, which is easy to check before you place the bet, once you know odds and stakes. I don't understand your calculation of bet #2:

For bet number two we have to add losses to 10 euro and winning bet is starting with first cycle so: TEAM A (2.75) (6.25 € + 10.00 €) 16.25 / 1.75 = 9.29 euro DRAW (3.25) (4.45 € + 10.00 €) 14.45 / 2.00 = 6.42 euro TEAM B (2.70) 10.00 / 1.70 = 5.88 euro Now lets say we have a draw so it should look something like this: TEAM A (6.25 + 9.29 = 15.54 €) - 15.54 € DRAW (6.42 X 3.25 = 20.87 €) TEAM B -5.88 € -------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL LOSS -0.55 € --------------------------------------------------------------

For teams A and B, you summarized losses from the 1st and 2nd leg, but for the team B you missed profit from first leg; for draw, you only calculated return from second leg; so how can these figures can be summarized together, all three seem to me as different set of data? :unsure For the second bet alone, I'd say that you lost 9.29 + 5.88 = 15.17 units on teams A and B, and you won (3.25-1)*6.42 = 14.45 units on draw; so overall, you lost 0.72 units on that bet, and cumulative loss then stands at 0.69+0.72 = 1.43 units, not 0.55 units... Where did I get this wrong? :unsure

[MickyG]

Re: 1 X 2 target 1000 € The system will work if you are lucky and have a big enough bank roll, as I have been testing it as well. The premise is that one selection should yield the profit whilst the other two limit the losses. But if you have a loss then you have to keep adding more to the losing selections. So we are on bet 3 now and if the home does not win then the loss will be around €20 draw or away. So it seems to be a variation on the martingale technique as a bad losing run will require a huge bank roll like he has. So each match you have a 1 in 3 chance of turning the profit which is why it works. As long as you get the staking right and you have at least one selection that will cover the loss of the other two selections and return a small profit, then it can work. Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk