Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Toast]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th Hopefully, Hidden Cyclone gets his chance to run, looked all over the winner between the last 2 in the Ryanair.

[Toast]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th This has got to be 1 of the worst Melling fields in memory. I cannot see 1 genuine grade 1 horse in the race.

[BillyHills]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th 305 Aintree It’s a wide open renewal of the Melling Chase and it may pay to side with experience and the course form of Wishfull Thinking. He seems sure to run a solid race and has conditions ideally in his favour. Module looks the class horse in the race but I do wonder if he needs it softer and would be better suited by a more galloping track. Selection: 2pts Wishfull Thinking 7/1 >Boylesports http://www.punterslounge.com/melling-chase-betting-wishfull-thinking

[Aidymac]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th Aintree 3:05 - This is a very competitive renewal of the Melling Chase with Radjhani Express and Module the current joint favourites at 5/1 a piece. The Waley-Cohens will be on the crest of a wave as they already won the Crabbie's Fox Hunters Chase by 13 lengths with their new purchase Warne. Sam gave that horse a terrific ride from the front and no doubt his confidence will be sky high after that success. The horse itself ran a cracker when 3rd to Dynaste in the Ryanair a few weeks ago and he also finished 5th in the Paddy Power before that. He can be backed at 5/1 with Bet365 but he looks a tad high in the weights off a mark of 158 and he will have to produce a brilliant run to win this. Although he has not won for three years now and is an 11 year old, I think the Nicky Henderson trained French Opera looks a tempting each-way price at 25/1 with Coral. He went off a 33/1 chance for the Grand Annual a few weeks back but ran a belter when 5th to Savello just behind Claret Cloak who ran a fine race today at Aintree. He has winning course form which is also a plus and although he could only manage 5th in this race back in 2011, this years renewal does not look as strong. Master Minded won the race that year and there is no horse of that calibre in this field. Henderson is a master trainer and I think this horse can put in a big run at a hefty price tomorrow. Tom George had a winner at Aintree today so clearly his yard is in decent shape and there is no doubt Module is a very classy horse. He ran a good race when 3rd to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Champion Chase a few weeks ago and is entitled to go well once more. I backed Wishfull Thinking last time out and he has seen some market support here but he really disappointed me last time out and I was hoping he would be a bigger price to be honest. Ballynagour was unbelievable in the Byrne Group Plate at the festival where he eased to victory but he is not a horse to trust and normally follows a win with a stinker. I have had a small each-way bet on French Opera who should not be too far away jumping the last. French Opera - 1 Point each-way @ 25/1 Coral - Also Bet £5 Get £20 Free Bet with Coral!

[Toast]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th Boston Bob 8/1 general A poor renewal and only a few have brade 1 form. So by process of elimination. Ballynagour needs an extended break between his races. Days Hotel has run further than 2m 7 times and failed each time. French Opera is a dog and has failed every time at grade 1 level and every chase run on a speed course. Module, only time he ran on a speed course, he failed. Best form is on big galloping courses, and his beating of a novice in the Aon does not read well. Radjani Express, stuck between 2 stones, too high in the weights for handicaps, not good enough in grade 1s. Flattered in the Ryanair. Stayed on well, so shorter trip, sharper course will not suit. Rathlin, quite useful in the past including a 2nd to Flemenstar, but form is hit and miss this season. Davy Russell rides another in the race. Rolling Aces is better on soft ground and going right handed, besides, he's not good enough. Looks an early season horse. Toner d'oudairies, can't really get an obvious read on his form, but he is much better going right handed. Davy Russell riding is a plus. Wishfull Thinking, won 1/7 around Aintree! But the stable are wonderfully out of form..see Menorah today. Pepite Rose, generally runs in class 2 races, outclassed, even with the mares allowance. All of which leaves Boston Bob, who has won at grade 1 level and should have won last years RSA, but for a last fence fall. Despite being tried over further, he is 5/5 over 20f.

[beaker1]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th 3:05 Betfred Melling Chase Eleven declarations and, although this wouldn’t be the classiest Melling Chase I’ve ever seen by a long chalk, it is competitive and fascinating all the same. During the last 19 runnings, the favourite or second-favourite has collected on 14 occasions so this has been a punter’s race for sure. Cheltenham’s equivalent race, the Ryanair Chase, has similarly been an excellent race for punters in its short existence. Module and Rajdhani Express, both third at the Cheltenham Festival, are currently disputing favouritism just ahead of the impressive Byrne Group Plate winner, Ballynagour. Just a note of caution, when races are not up to their usual standard that means we are not comparing like with like as much and that is when strong trends can suffer and the strongest negative pattern is that only two winners bypassed the Cheltenham Festival specifically for this prize since it was first run in 1989. Contenders who gave Cheltenham a miss were Rolling Aces, Days Hotel, Toner D’Oudairies and Pepite Rose. As this year’s renewal is probably the least classiest on record, I think another strong negative trend therefore even more at risk is that only one non Grade 1 winner from earlier in the season has won in the last 11 runnings. Well, I am certain it is as Boston Bob is the only Grade 1 winner in the race full stop (and those Grade 1 wins weren’t achieved this season) and 2m5f looked too sharp for him in the Ryanair and they are dropping down another furlong here so I can only imagine they are running here as they think it’s a less classy race than the Betfred Bowl. Wishfull Thinking won the Manifesto Chase when it was a Grade 2 race (now a Grade 1). The last 11 winners ran in either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or Ryanair. The Ryanair Chase has featured four winners in its first nine runnings whereas 12 of the last 19 winners posted a top-three finish in the Champion Chase. For the last two seasons it has been the Champion Chase winner that doubled up here and that 2m championship is represented by Module who was a staying-on third and would have been second in a couple more strides and I am convinced he is a better horse over this longer trip so I can see why he is duelling for favouritism. I also thought Wishfull Thinking (5th in the Champion Chase) was in the wrong race at Cheltenham having looked so good over 2m5f on his previous start so wasn’t surprised to see him beaten for speed last month. This trip is much more his bag these days. The Ryanair form is represented by Rajdhani Express (3rd), Boston Bob (6th) and Rathlin (7th). The other races earlier in the season that have been notable guides aren’t a factor this year. In following up his Maghull Novices’ Chase victory at this meeting 12 months earlier when successful in the Melling Chase, Sprinter Sacre was achieving the same feat as the 2012 winner, Finian’s Rainbow, thus becoming the seventeenth Melling Chase winner from 23 runnings to have previously won or placed at this three-day fixture before. This year’s only qualifier is Wishfull Thinking who won the Manifesto Chase over course and distance in 2011. The Irish won this five years in succession before Monet’s Garden broke the sequence seven seasons ago and their best guide has been the Boylesports.com Fortria Chase at Navan in November, a race in which their last winners finished 113. This season’s race was won by the injured Flemenstar beating Days Hotel. Boston Bob, Toner D’Oudairies and Rathlin also represent the Irish. Many punters take the view that it is easier to stay longer distance at flat courses like Aintree and Kempton but I take the opposite view as there is rarely any respite in the gallop at courses like these so horses have to stay very well to win. Of the 23 winners, all but six had not won over 2m4f or further beforehand. Is this strong enough to oppose them though? I’m not so sure. Front runners have an excellent record in other chase races on the Mildmay Course at this meeting (Silviniaco Conti became the 13th winner in 31 runnings of the Betfair Bowl to make all or virtually all on Day 1) on so it is with some surprise to note that no Melling Chase winner has ever made all the running in its 23 years. Shortlist Module Wishfull Thinking Rajdhani Express Conclusion Horses placed in the first three in the Champion Chase have a fine record and as this longer trip is expected to suit Module more, he is just the pick of the weak trends this year given how poor a renewal this is compared to other years in addition to also being top rated on ratings. He should also start in the first two in the betting like 14 of the last 19 winners. Second top rated is Wishfull Thinking who, like Module, found 2m too sharp in the Champion Chase, and this trip will suit him better judged on a number of recent efforts. Being the only horse in the line up not only to win at this meeting before but even place, he has to make the short list given the key trend is that 17 of the 23 winners had won or placed at this three-day fixture before. As Rajdhani Express is the highest place finisher from the Ryanair and likely to start in the first two in the betting, he completes the short list for a stable that has supplied the last two winners.

[Aidymac]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th

Boston Bob 8/1 general A poor renewal and only a few have brade 1 form. So by process of elimination. Ballynagour needs an extended break between his races. Days Hotel has run further than 2m 7 times and failed each time. French Opera is a dog and has failed every time at grade 1 level and every chase run on a speed course. Module, only time he ran on a speed course, he failed. Best form is on big galloping courses, and his beating of a novice in the Aon does not read well. Radjani Express, stuck between 2 stones, too high in the weights for handicaps, not good enough in grade 1s. Flattered in the Ryanair. Stayed on well, so shorter trip, sharper course will not suit. Rathlin, quite useful in the past including a 2nd to Flemenstar, but form is hit and miss this season. Davy Russell rides another in the race. Rolling Aces is better on soft ground and going right handed, besides, he's not good enough. Looks an early season horse. Toner d'oudairies, can't really get an obvious read on his form, but he is much better going right handed. Davy Russell riding is a plus. Wishfull Thinking, won 1/7 around Aintree! But the stable are wonderfully out of form..see Menorah today. Pepite Rose, generally runs in class 2 races, outclassed, even with the mares allowance. All of which leaves Boston Bob, who has won at grade 1 level and should have won last years RSA, but for a last fence fall. Despite being tried over further, he is 5/5 over 20f.

Sublime stuff toast. :clap

[Toast]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th Cheers Aidy. 20p in the £ rule 4 was a bummer, but still returned better than sp. Cant really back him in future with any real confidence, until his jumping improves.

[Aidymac]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th You were correct about French Opera, a dog! Terrible bet by me.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th

Boston Bob 8/1 general A poor renewal and only a few have brade 1 form. So by process of elimination. Ballynagour needs an extended break between his races. Days Hotel has run further than 2m 7 times and failed each time. French Opera is a dog and has failed every time at grade 1 level and every chase run on a speed course. Module, only time he ran on a speed course, he failed. Best form is on big galloping courses, and his beating of a novice in the Aon does not read well. Radjani Express, stuck between 2 stones, too high in the weights for handicaps, not good enough in grade 1s. Flattered in the Ryanair. Stayed on well, so shorter trip, sharper course will not suit. Rathlin, quite useful in the past including a 2nd to Flemenstar, but form is hit and miss this season. Davy Russell rides another in the race. Rolling Aces is better on soft ground and going right handed, besides, he's not good enough. Looks an early season horse. Toner d'oudairies, can't really get an obvious read on his form, but he is much better going right handed. Davy Russell riding is a plus. Wishfull Thinking, won 1/7 around Aintree! But the stable are wonderfully out of form..see Menorah today. Pepite Rose, generally runs in class 2 races, outclassed, even with the mares allowance. All of which leaves Boston Bob, who has won at grade 1 level and should have won last years RSA, but for a last fence fall. Despite being tried over further, he is 5/5 over 20f.

When you put it like that it was obvious! Well played sir!