Gift Watch, 12 bets, -43.2% yield - DISCONTINUED

[MPLouis]

I've been thinking about this for a while after noticing how often so-called 'free money' or 'nailed on' bets lose. I'm pretty sure there is value in opposing these, and this system is designed to prove whether I'm right or not. The idea is that if someone (or preferably more than one person) thinks a bet is 'free money' there is a good chance that other people think this as well, and that the popular backing of this bet reduces the odds by enough to make it good value to oppose it. A recent example was West Brom v Chelsea on Wednesday 12th February, when The Metro's 'Tipster' said: "It doesn’t need a rocket scientist to work out who will win this game", suggesting that Chelsea were almost guaranteed to win, and recommending backing Chelsea HT/FT ... http://metro.co.uk/2014/02/10/the-tipster-chelsea-can-extend-their-lead-at-the-top-of-the-premier-league-with-victory-at-west-brom-4298433/ Best odds on Chelsea to win were 1.53 with sbobet. Chelsea were 1.48 with Betfair and you could have laid them on Betfair at around 1.49 (equivalent to backing the West Brom or Draw at around 3.0, less a bit for Betfair commission) ... http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/premier-league-2013-2014/west-brom-chelsea-QcUTlOIL/#1X2;2 The result was 1-1, so the 'doesn't take a rocket scientist' idea would have lost and you would have nearly trebled your money by opposing it. Starting bank: 100 points Level stakes: 2 points per bet

Edited January 14, 2016 by MPLouis

[methuselah]

Re: Anti-Nob ("nailed-on" bets) Good Luck with this. Should be interesting.

[Matthew]

Re: Anti-Nob ("nailed-on" bets) Interesting......If the backed the Home Team when under 1.50 and it is a premier league match you'd have made 0.30%, in 631 bets with a strike rate of 76.23%. [h=1]Overall Results[/h][TABLE=align: center]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]BOTH TEAMS[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 11]UNDER & OVER X GOALS[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]TO SCORE[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 1.5[/TH] [TH]O 1.5[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 2.5[/TH] [TH]O 2.5[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 3.5[/TH] [TH]O 3.5[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 4.5[/TH] [TH]O 4.5[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]OVERALL[/TD] [TD=align: right]£1.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£45.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£212.78[/TD] [TD=align: right]631[/TD] [TD=align: right]76.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.75%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.02%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.30%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.17%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-33.72%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD=align: center]44.69%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]20.29%[/TD] [TD]79.71%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]42.47%[/TD] [TD]57.53%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]65.29%[/TD] [TD]34.71%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]81.14%[/TD] [TD]18.86%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] You'd lose 33.72% backing the away team. I don't have double chance odds but I would expect the return to split stake bets across the draw and away win would end up being somewhere between -7.17% and -33.72% over the course of a large sample of bets. I'm happy to share this dataset with anyone who is interested. For the sake of completeness, across 10 leagues in the UK and Europe: [h=1]Overall Results[/h][TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]BOTH TEAMS[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 11]UNDER & OVER X GOALS[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]TO SCORE[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 1.5[/TH] [TH]O 1.5[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 2.5[/TH] [TH]O 2.5[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 3.5[/TH] [TH]O 3.5[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH]U 4.5[/TH] [TH]O 4.5[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]OVERALL[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£18.22[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£483.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£588.81[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,899[/TD] [TD=align: right]75.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.66%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.63%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-16.67%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-20.31%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD=align: center]46.19%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]19.73%[/TD] [TD]80.27%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]41.67%[/TD] [TD]58.33%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]64.26%[/TD] [TD]35.74%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]80.72%[/TD] [TD]19.28%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [h=1]DIVISION[/h][TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]RETURNS[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]STRIKE RATE[/TH] [TH=colspan: 3]YIELD[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH]DIVISION[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]NO BETS[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [TH]HW[/TH] [TH]DR[/TH] [TH]AW[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]German Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=align: right]£5.68[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£74.52[/TD] [TD=align: right]£4.67[/TD] [TD=align: right]284[/TD] [TD=align: right]76.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]13.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.21%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.00%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-26.24%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.64%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English Premier League[/TD] [TD=align: right]£1.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£45.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£212.78[/TD] [TD=align: right]631[/TD] [TD=align: right]76.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.75%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.02%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.30%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.17%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-33.72%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English Championship[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£17.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.98[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.25[/TD] [TD=align: right]169[/TD] [TD=align: right]64.50%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.08%[/TD] [TD=align: right]12.43%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.31%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.88%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English League 1[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£18.25[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.35[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£21.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]202[/TD] [TD=align: right]65.35%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.76%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.89%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-9.03%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.63%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.77%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English League 2[/TD] [TD=align: right]£0.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£26.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£15.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]122[/TD] [TD=align: right]72.13%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18.03%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.84%[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.39%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-21.42%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-12.91%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]English Conference[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£14.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£46.14[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£30.91[/TD] [TD=align: right]234[/TD] [TD=align: right]67.52%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]14.10%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-19.72%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-13.21%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]French Ligue 1[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£4.23[/TD] [TD=align: right]£6.23[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£45.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]182[/TD] [TD=align: right]71.98%[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.88%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.14%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.32%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.42%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-24.73%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Italian Serie A[/TD] [TD=align: right]£6.39[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£35.90[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£118.22[/TD] [TD=align: right]357[/TD] [TD=align: right]76.75%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-10.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-33.11%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Scottish Premier League[/TD] [TD=align: right]£4.23[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£119.09[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£89.21[/TD] [TD=align: right]389[/TD] [TD=align: right]80.72%[/TD] [TD=align: right]12.60%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.68%[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-30.61%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-22.93%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Spanish Primera Liga[/TD] [TD=align: right]£17.62[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£152.70[/TD] [TD=align: right]-£68.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]329[/TD] [TD=align: right]83.28%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.73%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.36%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-46.41%[/TD] [TD=align: right]-20.70%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: Anti-Nob ("nailed-on" bets) Time for Bet 1 in this thread Europa League Thursday 27th February 17.00 Rubin Kazan v Real Betis (The match starts in less than 30 minutes - sorry for the short notice, but I've only just seen the comment below) I've just seen a comment about this game on the Europa League board - "I think odds for Rubin above 1.7 are a gift" I've also seen other people tipping Rubin on the basis of the weather in Russia, Rubin's strong home record and Betis' poor away record in Spain this year. Popular sentiment seems to be a Rubin win. Too many people are expecting a Rubin win and the chances are the odds are too short - so it's worth opposing them. The shots stats from the first leg in Spain (28-8) suggest that Betis dominated the home leg (which finished in a 1-1 draw) and they have a decent chance of getting at least a draw here. Real Betis +0.5 2.12 188bet Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Anti-Nob ("nailed-on" bets)

Time for Bet 1 in this thread Europa League Thursday 27th February 17.00 Rubin Kazan v Real Betis (The match starts in less than 30 minutes - sorry for the short notice, but I've only just seen the comment below) I've just seen a comment about this game on the Europa League board - "I think odds for Rubin above 1.7 are a gift" I've also seen other people tipping Rubin on the basis of the weather in Russia, Rubin's strong home record and Betis' poor away record in Spain this year. Popular sentiment seems to be a Rubin win. Too many people are expecting a Rubin win and the chances are the odds are too short - so it's worth opposing them. The shots stats from the first leg in Spain (28-8) suggest that Betis dominated the home leg (which finished in a 1-1 draw) and they have a decent chance of getting at least a draw here. Real Betis +0.5 2.12 188bet Stake: 2 points

Result: Rubin Kazan 0 Real Betis 2 Bet won :ok Well deserved win for Betis, who dominated the game from what I saw. They won't all be as easy as this, and they won't all win, but a good start :) Staked 2 points Returns 4.24 points New bank: 102.24 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet) Note: I decided I didn't like the original thread title, so I've changed it to the slightly better (or at least more memorable): 'Lay the NOB' :)

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet) Bet 2 Portuguese Liga Saturday 1st March 20.15 Sporting Lisbon v Braga I wasn't quite sure about this one, but have decided to go for it, because although not all these bets win they do seem to be profitable overall, and I don't think it makes sense to pick and choose too much. I've recently seen a post elsewhere on PL which refers to this game and says: "Sporting at home with a price around evens, is a pure gift" If you check Sporting's home record versus Braga's away form, you can understand where he's coming from when he says this. Sporting are unbeaten at home this season, and Braga have only won 2 away games out of 9. Braga have just sacked their manager, and I think this is the new manager's first game. I'm hoping that enough people believe Sporting's price is a 'gift' to make the odds lower than they should be, and therefore worth opposing: Braga +0.5 1.93 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet)

Bet 2 Portuguese Liga Saturday 1st March 20.15 Sporting Lisbon v Braga I wasn't quite sure about this one, but have decided to go for it, because although not all these bets win they do seem to be profitable overall, and I don't think it makes sense to pick and choose too much. I've recently seen a post elsewhere on PL which refers to this game and says: "Sporting at home with a price around evens, is a pure gift" If you check Sporting's home record versus Braga's away form, you can understand where he's coming from when he says this. Sporting are unbeaten at home this season, and Braga have only won 2 away games out of 9. Braga have just sacked their manager, and I think this is the new manager's first game. I'm hoping that enough people believe Sporting's price is a 'gift' to make the odds lower than they should be, and therefore worth opposing: Braga +0.5 1.93 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points

Result: Sporting 2 Braga 1 Bet lost I saw a lot of it, and thought Sporting probably deserved to win - their physical superiority seemed to make a difference. Staked 2 points Returns 0 points New bank: 100.24 points

[fatfreddy]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet) i like the way you are thinking here, this happens so often in NFL games, fading the talking head idiots on the panel shows before the game seems like easy money. the definition of NOB is the key here, it needs to be standardized somehow for scientific rigor. this reminds me of the usfootball patriots this year, everybody was on them becuase of their reputation even down a couple of key players...... it will be interesting to follow your progress on this!

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet) - TWO bets, +6% yield Sunday 27th April 2014 Performance update 2 bets @ 2 points = 4 points Bet 1 WON - return 4.24 Bet 2 lost - return nil Total return = 4.24 points Yield = +6%

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet), TWO bets, +6% yield I was just going through some notes tonight, and I'd noted down that one poster had mentioned Costa Rica 'not to win a single match' in the World Cup as a 'gift' at odds of 1.18. Obviously I wish I had opposed this now - after seeing Uruguay crash 1-3 to Costa Rica :lol

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet)

i like the way you are thinking here' date=' this happens so often in NFL games, fading the talking head idiots on the panel shows before the game seems like easy money. [b']the definition of NOB is the key here, it needs to be standardized somehow for scientific rigor

I agree. It would be useful to have a strict formula. For now, if any bet is being talked about (preferably by more than one person) as a 'gift' or 'nailed on' and is priced at well below evens (2.0) - preferably under 1.5 - I would try to consider it here :)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet), TWO bets, +6% yield I suspect this kind of thinking would work best for fixtures played at certain times. For instance, the late Saturday EPL game, Sunday games, the La Liga games that are played when most of the weekend footy is over? I think you're more likely to find people backing at poor odds if it's the only game left on the card for the day etc. Wonder if Mathew has a breakdown based on the time a game is played?

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet), TWO bets, +6% yield

I suspect this kind of thinking would work best for fixtures played at certain times. For instance' date=' the late Saturday EPL game, Sunday games, the La Liga games that are played when most of the weekend footy is over? I think you're more likely to find people backing at poor odds if it's the only game left on the card for the day etc[/quote'] No, timing's not an issue for me - only people stating a bet is a 'gift' or 'nailed on' at lowish odds

[MPLouis]

Re: Lay the NOB ("Nailed-On" Bet), TWO bets, +6% yield In the last few days I've noticed a few people suggesting a price is 'a gift' - and it often proves an unwelcome one. I'm going to try to incorporate some of those in this thread with a view to opposing them, particularly at low odds (e.g. if a team to win at home @ 1.7 is referred to as a 'gift')

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, TWO bets, +6% yield I've decided to re-name this thread 'Gift Watch' It's a better, shorter title, and it reminds me to keep searching for prices people think are a 'gift'. Hoping to put up some more recommendations soon :)

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, TWO bets, +6% yield Bet 3 Weds 22 Oct 2014 Champions League Group Stage Liverpool v Real Madrid A newspaper tipster reckons Real Madrid are 'nailed on' to win tonight. They've been in great form in the league, and Liverpool have struggled early this season. Liverpool do have a great home record in Europe over the years though, and have a good record against Real. I'm happy to oppose 'nailed on' Real ... Liverpool +0.5 2.06 188Bet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, TWO bets, +6% yield

Bet 3 Weds 22 Oct 2014 Champions League Group Stage Liverpool v Real Madrid A newspaper tipster reckons Real Madrid are 'nailed on' to win tonight. They've been in great form in the league, and Liverpool have struggled early this season. Liverpool do have a great home record in Europe over the years though, and have a good record against Real. I'm happy to oppose 'nailed on' Real ... Liverpool +0.5 2.06 188Bet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Liverpool 0 Real Madrid 3 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil After 3 bets Total staked: 6 points Total return: 4.24 points Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 98.24 points Yield = -1.76/6 = -29.33% It sounds as though Liverpool started well, but once Real took the lead, Liverpool were outclassed and Real deserved the win.

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield Friday 31 Oct 2014 Bundesliga Schalke v Augsburg I have seen Schalke's price below evens for this game referred to as 'a gift'. I'm happy to oppose that tonight ... Bet 4 Schalke v Augsburg Augsburg +0.5 2.02 188Bet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield

Friday 31 Oct 2014 Bundesliga Schalke v Augsburg I have seen Schalke's price below evens for this game referred to as 'a gift'. I'm happy to oppose that tonight ... Bet 4 Schalke v Augsburg Augsburg +0.5 2.02 188Bet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Schalke 1 Augsburg 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil From what I saw, Augsburg were the better side but didn't have enough penetration against a strong defence and goalkeeper. Schalke were more threatening from the few chances they had, and managed a goal which was enough to win the game. (Will update totals in thread title after 5 or 10 matches)

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield Thurs 6th Nov 2014 Europa League Group E Dinamo Moscow - Estoril One message board post refers to this as an "Easy win" for Dinamo. However, some of the stats suggest otherwise. Both sides have similar shots on target stats. Dinamo won the first game 2-1, but Estoril missed a penalty. Dinamo's odds look short at 1.5, and happy to oppose them - Bet 5 Dinamo Moscow v Estoril Estoril or Draw 2.7 Coral Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield Thurs 6th Nov 2014 Europa League Legia - Metalist Kharkiv 20.05 I've seen message board posts saying this should be an easy home win. Legia top the group on 9 points and Metalist are bottom on 0. Legia won the first game in Ukraine 1-0. The two teams' shots on target stats are about the same. Metalist need something from the game. I'm happy to oppose the idea of an easy home win Bet 6 Legia v Metalist Kharkiv Metalist or Draw 2.4 MarathonBet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield

Thurs 6th Nov 2014 Europa League Group E Dinamo Moscow - Estoril One message board post refers to this as an "Easy win" for Dinamo. However, some of the stats suggest otherwise. Both sides have similar shots on target stats. Dinamo won the first game 2-1, but Estoril missed a penalty. Dinamo's odds look short at 1.5, and happy to oppose them - Bet 5 Dinamo Moscow v Estoril Estoril or Draw 2.7 Coral Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Dinamo Moscow 1 Estoril 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield

Thurs 6th Nov 2014 Europa League Legia - Metalist Kharkiv 20.05 I've seen message board posts saying this should be an easy home win. Legia top the group on 9 points and Metalist are bottom on 0. Legia won the first game in Ukraine 1-0. The two teams' shots on target stats are about the same. Metalist need something from the game. I'm happy to oppose the idea of an easy home win Bet 6 Legia v Metalist Kharkiv Metalist or Draw 2.4 MarathonBet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Legia 2 Metalist 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, THREE bets, -29.3% yield Summary after 6 bets 6 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 6 x 2 = 12 points Total return: 4.24 points 1 winner 5 losers Strike rate = 1/6 = 16.67% Yield = ((4.24/12) -1) x 100 = -64.67%

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, SIX bets, -64.67% yield Time for some more bets here. Matches Saturday 10th Jan 2015 Chelsea v Newcastle I've seen predictions of 'only one outcome' and 'an easy Chelsea win'. I'm going to back the other outcomes - Newcastle +2AH 1.97 Marathon Bournemouth v Norwich I read that a price of anywhere near evens on Bournemouth is 'a gift'. Best odds on Bournemouth are currently 2.05, so I'm going to oppose them ... Norwich or draw 1.91 Coral Stake: 2 points on each Total stake: 4 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, SIX bets, -64.67% yield

Time for some more bets here. Matches Saturday 10th Jan 2015 Chelsea v Newcastle I've seen predictions of 'only one outcome' and 'an easy Chelsea win'. I'm going to back the other outcomes - Newcastle +2AH 1.97 Marathon Bournemouth v Norwich I read that a price of anywhere near evens on Bournemouth is 'a gift'. Best odds on Bournemouth are currently 2.05, so I'm going to oppose them ... Norwich or draw 1.91 Coral Stake: 2 points on each Total stake: 4 points

Results: Chelsea 2 Newcastle 0 VOID, returns 2 points Bournemouth 1 Norwich 2 WON, returns 3.82 points Total stake: 4 points Total return: 5.82 points Profit/loss = +1.82 points =========== Performance update 8 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 8 x 2 = 16 points Total return: 4.24 + 2 + 3.82 = 10.06 2 winners 1 void 5 losers Strike rate = 2/8 = 25% Yield = ((10.06/16) -1) x 100 = -37.1% Bank = 100 - 16 + 10.06 = 94.06 =============

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, EIGHT bets, -37.1% yield Saturday 31st Jan Real Madrid v Sociedad One quote: "a -1EH handicap on Real at home to an poor mid-table side like Sociedad at odds like 1.6 is a no-brainer" no-brainer activates the Gift Watch signal to bet against it: Sociedad +2AH 2.02 Marathon Man U v Leicester One punter: "they should have no problem seeing off the high flying Leicester team" Leic +1.5 1.89 Marathon Chelsea v Man City A bookmaker in a newspaper column: "a Chelsea victory at evens is a much a guarantee as a celebrity meltdown in the Big Brother house" City +0.5 1.79 188Bet Stoke v QPR Stoke are described as a 5-star bet and "no doubt" over the outcome QPR +0.5 2.15 BV Four bets at 2 points each

[MPLouis]

Re: Gift Watch, EIGHT bets, -37.1% yield Results: Real Madrid 4 Sociedad 1 Lost Man U 3 Leicester 1 Lost Chelsea 1 Man City 1 Won, returns 3.58 Stoke 3 QPR 1 Lost Total stake: 8 points Total return: 3.58 points Profit/loss: -4.42 points ================= Performance update 12 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 12 x 2 = 24 points Total return: 4.24 + 2 + 3.82 = 10.06 + 3.58 = 13.64 3 winners 1 void 8 losers Strike rate = 3/12 = 25% Yield = ((13.64/24) -1) x 100 = -43.2% Bank = 100 - 24 + 13.64 = 89.64 =============

[MPLouis]

Weds Jan 13th 2016

I am calling a halt to this system thread after 12 bets as results have been very disappointing, the yield being -43.2%.

I still think if a bet is described as a 'gift' it can sometimes be good value to oppose it, particularly if the price is low, but my results show it is not easy to profit from this strategy. I think it might require a huge amount of patience and discipline, learning when to oppose tips and when not to.

** THREAD DISCONTINUED **